1. Infotrak Harris Poll Report for Centre for Multiparty Democracy October 2011
Prepared by Infotrak Research & Consulting A member of Harris Interactive Global Network October 2011

2. The Methodology

3. The Methodology
A sample of 1500 respondents was interviewed to represent Kenyan 18+ translating into a margin of error of -/+ 2.5 at 95% level of confidence. The survey was conducted countrywide
The sampling frame was developed using population proportionate to size. The sample was further split into key demographic groups i.e. by region, age and gender. The key boundary was the district of residence which was further split into both urban and rural
Sampling technique adopted was purposive, random and systematic. This was done so as to ensure that that every respondent who was 18 years and above was given an equal opportunity to participate. From the same sample, specific attention was given to both male and female living in urban and rural part of the constituency
Fieldwork was conducted through face to face interviews
The survey was conducted between 23th - 26th September, 2011

4. Margin of Error explained
Margin of error decreases as the sample size increases, but only up to a certain point.
A very small sample, such as 50 respondents, has about a 14 percent margin of error while a sample of 1,000 has a margin of error of 3 percent.
By doubling the sample to 2,000, the margin of error only decreases from +/-3 percent to +/- 2 percent and +/-1.8 percent for a sample size of 4000.
This illustrates that there are diminishing returns when trying to reduce the margin of error by increasing the sample size.
What is imperative is to ensure that the sample is representative of the universe you wish to cover. This is why in a continent the size of USA, most sample sizes range between covering the entire population. And the results are more or less accurate.
A 95 percent level of confidence is the acceptable standard for social surveys.

5. Margin of Error Illustration

6. The Sample distribution
Region
County
DISTRICT
Nairobi
1. Nairobi
Nairobi West
Nairobi East
Nairobi North
Westlands
Coast
2. Mombasa
Mombasa
3. Kilifi
Kilifi
North Eastern
4. Garissa
Garissa
5. Wajir
Wajir West
Eastern
6. Isiolo
Isiolo
7. Meru
Igembe
8. Machakos
Embu
Machakos
Kangundo
Central
9. Nyeri
Nyeri South
10. Muranga
Muranga north
11. Kiambu
Ruiru
Rift Valley
12. Turkana
Turkana North
13. Transnzoia
Transzoia West
14. Uasin Gishu
Eldoret West
15. Nandi
Nandi North
16. Nakuru
Nakuru
Molo
17. Kericho
Trans Mara
Kipkelion
Western
18. kakamega
Kakamega South
19. Vihiga
Emuhaya
20. Bungoma
Bungoma West
Nyanza
21. Kisumu
Kisumu East
22. Homabay
Rachuonyo
23. Kisii
Kisii Central
24. Nyamira
Nyamira

7. Political Parties

8. How much participation do you have in political parties?
22% of Kenyans indicated they either participate always or frequently in political party businesses
How much participation do you have in political parties?
Base 1500
More males (25%) participate either always or frequently in political party businesses as compared to their female counterparts (19%)

9. Seven in ten of the interviewed Kenyans indicated the political party they belong to does NOT involve them in its affairs
Base 339
Political Party
Yes
Sometimes No
Don’t Know n
ORANGE DEMOCRATIC MOVEMENT
21%
23%
57% 0%
151
PARTY OF NATIONAL UNITY
15%
35%
47% 3% 89
FORUM for RESTORATION of DEMOCRACY - PEOPLE
14%
43%
38% 5% 28
ORANGE DEMOCRATIC MOVEMENT KENYA
17%
22%
61% 24
NATIONAL RAINBOW COALITION-KENYA
25%
42%
33% 16
UNITED DEMOCRATIC MOVEMENT
67% 8
NEW FORUM for RESTORATION of DEMOCRACY - KENYA
50%
KENYA AFRICAN NATIONAL UNION
20%
40% 7
NATIONAL RAINBOW COALITION 3
Does the political party you belong to usually involve you in its affairs?

10. 37% of the surveyed Kenyans indicated they either completely trust or trust much the political parties
Base 1201
Reasons they do Not Trust political parties at all
Reasons they Somewhat Trust political parties
They are transparent (No secrets)
67%
Parties belong to individuals
24%
Interest to work 6%
Has a national outlook 3%
n= 336
n= 367

11. There is much focus pegged on the individual party manifestos
The most crucial scale of measurement of the current political parties today is the manifesto and its overall characteristics…the inspiring vision
Parties union which is not only measured by the absence of wrangles or dissenting voices but also in terms of talking one voice and apt conflict resolution within itself is the second most rated factor Kenyans consider before trusting the party’s they belong to
Reasons
Base 1201

12. The bandwagon effect
Most Kenyans would consider the mass behind each party before throwing their weight in support of it
Manifesto and the party leader as the face of the party(s) is also key to the voters today as this would also measure up the integrity of the party and its officials
Apparently regional balance does not matter as it is the hypothesis of most Kenyans in joining various party’s
When considering which political party to support, what is most important to you?
Base 612

13. Lone rangers have a formidable task
Slightly more than a fifth (27%) of the Kenyan voters would vote for an independent candidate
Most males especially from rural settings would vote in individual candidates
Base 1201
Would you vote for any candidate who vies as an independent candidate (i.e. without a political party)

14. Nairobi records the least approval (53%)while also the highest potential ground at 17%
The Eastern wing of Kenyan electorate would easily endorse a “lone ranger” as 67% of the electorate would vote for any candidate without a party or someone independent
It would be a little hard task for an independent candidate to vie in Nairobi region as it recorded the least approval rate
Base 1201
Would you vote for any candidate who vies as an independent candidate (i.e. without a political party)

15. Independent candidates are ERRATIC POLITICIANS
Kenyans feel that the independent candidates are always on political transit therefore cannot be trusted
With the party as the umbrella, politicians without political parties somehow lack manifesto (if not the mission) to achieve their dreams
Base 1201
If NO, kindly give reasons.
Base 324

16. Rural population recorded the highest disapproval at compared to their
Kenyans feel political parties direct involvement in the implementation would be delay the process
One in every three Kenyans regard political parties as interest groups and
feel they should not directly get involved in the implementation process,
which does not in any way bar them from debating the bills in the house
Rural population recorded the highest disapproval at compared to their
urban counterparts at 51% and 45% respectively
Base 1201
Do you think political parties have a role to play in the current constitution implementation process?

17. Most of the electorate in Nyanza region are still undecided on the issues of party participation in the implementation process
Nairobi region, apparently the most cosmopolitan political environment has voiced the greatest concern over the importance of political parties participation in the constitution implementation process at 44% approval
Rift valley region followed by Coast region recorded the highest disapproval at 58% and 56% respectively
Base 1201
Do you think political parties have a role to play in the current constitution implementation process?

18. Voice of the 32% of the Kenyan electorate……………………
Party participation is thus crucial in its role as a watchdog in terms of scrutinizing and monitoring bills just as much as sponsoring bills
The party also act as the collective voice of reason in mobilizing views and also creating a platform to air them
n=384
If YES, kindly specify the roles

19. Constitutionalism

20. Nine in ten persons are aware that Kenya got a new constitution in the year 2010
Are you aware that Kenya got a new constitution in the year 2010?
Base 1500

21. Up to 90% of Kenyans claim to be informed on the provisions of the new constitution
Somewhat informed
How informed are you on the provisions of the new constitution?
Base 1410

22. Bill of Rights is the most renown chapter ( provision ) in the new constitution as rated by 90% who are comfortably informed
Base 1269
What would you say is your level of information with regard to the following constitutional provisions
Very informed
Informed
Quite informed
Not informed
Nairobi
30%
40%
28% 2%
Coast
19%
35%
12%
North Eastern
13%
47%
27%
Eastern
37% 8%
Central
18%
29%
15%
Rift Valley
11%
39%
10%
Western
21%
31%
Nyanza
24% 6%
Total
20%
36%
34%
Well informed
Informed
Not informed
Don’t know
Bill of rights
38%
52% 8% 2%
Leadership and integrity
23%
56%
18% 3%
The executive
24%
51%
21% 4%
The Legislature
22%
Devolved government
Representation of the people
26%
19%
The judiciary
53%
20%
Citizenship
34%
48%
13% 5%
How informed are you on the provisions of the new constitution?
Base 1410

23. Word of mouth is also popular especially among the rural Kenyans
Radio is the main source of information on constitutional and political affairs
Although Television is a reserve to the urban Kenyan population, radio is still the most popular medium to the Kenyan population
Word of mouth is also popular especially among the rural Kenyans
What is your main source of information on constitutional and political affairs?
Base 1269

24. Kenyans understanding on constitutional provisions
The Constitution
The question posed to the respondents
Article 176 (1)
There shall be a county government for each county, consisting of a county assembly and a county executive.
We will have county Governments
82%
38%
Article 180 (1)
The county governor shall be directly elected by the voters registered in the county, on the same day as a general election of Members of Parliament, being the second Tuesday in August, in every fifth year.
The Governor will be elected by the People
84%
16%
Article 85 (a)
Any person is eligible to stand as an independent candidate for election if the person-
is not a member of a registered political party and has not been a member for at least three months immediately before the date of the election;
Candidates can contest seats without being members of political parties
67%
33%
Article 130 (1)
The national executive of the Republic comprises the President, the Deputy President and the rest of the Cabinet.
Kenya will have a Prime Minister after the 2012 general elections
71%
29%
Article 131 (3)
The President shall not hold any other State or Public office.
The President will be a Member of Parliament
58%
42%

25. Kenyans understanding on constitutional provisions
The Constitution
The question posed to the respondents
Article 96 (1)
The Senate represents the counties, and serves to protect the interests of the counties and their governments
The Senator will be the Head of the County
40%
60%
Article 152 (3)
A Cabinet Secretary shall not be a Member of Parliament.
Cabinet Secretaries (Ministers) will be Members of Parliament
33%
53%
Article 148 (1)
Each candidate in a presidential election shall nominate a person who is Qualified for nomination for election as President, as a candidate for Deputy President.
The President will name a running mate before elections
71%
29%
Article 101 (1)
A general election of members of parliament shall be held on the second Tuesday in August in every fifth year.
General Elections will be held on August
72%
28%
Political parties Act
The Registrar may make regulations generally for the better carrying out of provisions of this Act.
There is a limit on the amount of money a political candidate can spend in campaigns
62%
38%
Those who got it right
Those who got it wrong

26. Slightly less than half of the Kenyan electorate (48%) think the government is committed in implementing the new constitution
Do you think that the Government is committed in implementing the new Constitution?
Base 1269

27. Passed laws (80%) against the un adhered to timelines (72%)
Base 609
Base 406
Reasons for their satisfaction or dissatisfaction

28. Overall awareness stands at 48%
37% of the Kenyan electorate are not aware of the laws passed under the new constitution
Awareness on the laws passed under the new constitution is currently low across the whole country with Nairobi residents recording the highest recall rate at 51% while eastern and Western regions scoring the lowest at 41% and 45% respectively
Overall awareness stands at 48%
Awareness is higher in urban than in rural regions at 50% and 46% respectively
Overall awareness is directly proportional to education level while inversely proportional to age
Are you aware of any laws which have been passed under the new Constitution?
Base 1269

29. The laws Kenyans claim to have been passed under the new constitution
Passed laws
Ratio
Judicial Service Commission Bill
73.3%
Mututho Bill (Alcoholic Drinks Control Bill)
72.1%
IEBC Bill
60.5%
Independent Ethics and Anti-Corruption Bill
56.8%
Price Control Bill
46.7%
Kenya National Commision on Human Rights Bill
35.5%
Political Parties Bill
Elections Bill
25.4%
Gender Commission Bill
20.4%
National Police Service Bill
18.4%
Citizenship Bill
16.4%
CIC Bill
11.6%
Commission on Revenue Allocation Bill
9.7%
National Security Council Bill
5.1%
The judicial
Service Commission Bill
seconded by the most
famous “Mututho laws” at
73% and 72% respectively
are the most famous
If Yes, which laws passed under the new Constitution are you aware of?
Base 609

30. More than half (58%) of the Kenyan electorate are optimistic and believe the new laws will lead to better governance
Do you think that the laws enacted under the new Constitution will lead to better governance?
Base 609

31. Kenyan electorate believe that the new laws will put the government on checks and balances
25% of those of the contrary opinion feel that leaders are still corrupt and have no trust in them while a greater majority (50%) think that the laws were passed in a hurry
Kindly give reasons
Base 353

32. The youth are optimistic that the constitution will address their needs
Are you optimistic that the Constitution will address your needs
Base 1410

33. Unemployment is an urgent need to the electorate especially the youth
Employment and fundamental human rights are the key issues or needs that the electorate would wish the implementation to consider as a matter of priority
If yes, which needs do you expect to be addressed by implementation of the new constitution?
Base 690

34. 2012 General Election date

35. Half of the Kenyans interviewed are of the opinion that next general elections should be held in August 2012
Base 1500
More urban based population (55%) compared to their rural counterparts (45%) support the holding of the next general elections to be done in August
Which month (August or December) do you support that next year’s elections be held?

36. August 2012 elections is constitutional
More respondents who intend to vote in the next General elections support the elections be held in the month of August (47%) as compared to those who prefer them done in the month of December (33%)
The month (August/December) they support the next General election be held
Intention to vote in the next General Elections
Aggregate
Yes No
Don’t Know
August
47% 2% 1%
50%
December
33%
37% 9%
13%
89% 7% 4%
1452
Base 1452
Which month (August or December) do you support that next year’s elections be held BY their intention to participate in the next general elections

37. Reason for supporting the next general elections to be held in August
Reasons for supporting either August/December as the month of next general election
Reason for supporting the next general elections to be held in August
Reason for supporting the next general elections to be held in December
n = 529
n = 717