1. Housing Affordability Trends

3. Population Growth: Top Ten States
Annual Average Rate of Change

4. Job Growth: Top Ten States
Percent Change

5. Housing Price Index Percent Change 1991 – 3Q 2017
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, Housing Price Index

6. Sales Price of a Single Family Home
Median Sales Price: Percent Change 1991 – 2017
Rank
Metro Area
1991
2017
Percent
AAGR
1st Qtr.
4th Qtr.
Change 1
Boulder, Colorado
$95,000
$484,000
410%
5.6% 2
Greeley Colorado
$66,000
$324,000
391%
5.4% 3
San Francisco, California
$265,000
$1,257,000
374%
5.2% 4
Fort Collins, Colorado
$78,000
$361,000
363%
5.1% 5
Portland, Oregon
$80,000
$364,000
355%
5.0% 6
San Jose, California
$220,000
$945,000
330%
4.7% 7
Salt Lake City, Utah
$76,000
$307,000
304%
4.4% 8
Reno, Nevada
$103,500
$415,000
301%
4.3% 9
Colorado Springs, Colorado
$70,000
$275,000
293%
4.2% 10
Seattle, Washington
$130,000
$501,000
285%
4.1% 11
Eugene, Oregon
$67,000
$255,000
281%
4.0% 12
Provo-Orem, Utah
$302,000
278%
*111 metropolitan areas.
Source: National Home Builders Association

7. Average Annual Growth Rates in Median Sales Price of Home and Median Household Income
Davis
Salt Lake
Utah
Weber
2000
$53,726
$48,373
$45,833
$44,014
2016
$76,905
$68,665
$69,799
$63,158
AAGR* Income
2.30%
2.20%
2.70%
AAGR Single -Family Prices
4.00%
4.70%
4.30%
3.80%
AAGR = average annual growth rate.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau.

8. Utah Housing Unit v. Household Growth
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Ivory-Boyer Construction Database

9. Cumulative Days on Market
Single Family Homes
Source: UtahRealEstate.com

10. Number of Months Supply
Finished Vacant Inventory of New Homes in Utah
Source: Metrostudy Utah Database

11. Hard Construction Cost Drivers
Percent Change
Drywall: 15%
Cabinetry: 40%
Roofing: 70%
Siding: 148%
Lumber: 60%
Source: Ivory Homes

12. Permit and Impact Fee Percent Change 2007 – 2017
Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

13. Sales Price of a Single Family Home
Median Sales Price
Source: UtahRealEstate.com
Source: UtahRealEstate.com.

14. Utah Homeownership Rate
Source: FRED Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

15. Percent of Utah Households with Severe Housing Cost Burden
Below median income %
Above median income %
Source: HUD Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy

16. Evictions by Block Group
Salt Lake County: 2015
Eviction data for counties in Utah are very limited. A search of the Matheson Courthouse Law Library shows a total of 4,019 evictions countywide in The color coded map shows evictions relative to the number of renter occupied households within the block groups. The one block group with the highest rates of evictions per renter occupied household is shown in red at 70% of households experiencing at least one eviction filing. The incidence of evictions is relatively high, not surprisingly, for block groups in South Salt Lake, West Valley, Kearns, Magna, and Midvale.
Source: National Home Builders Association

17. Outlook Shortage will continue 3-4 years Prices likely to increase
Increasing interest rates a challenge
Gap between price & income a concern
Neighboring states competition also an issue
The threat to affordability from rising prices may be secondary to increasing interest rates, which could significantly reduce housing affordability and homeownership opportunities
If housing prices and household incomes in Utah increases at the same rate as the past 26 years, housing affordability in 2044 would be equivalent to today’s San Francisco market. The median sales price of home would be more than $700,000 (inflation adjusted.)
Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

18. Kem C C. Gardner Policy Institute
David Eccles School of Business | 411 E. South Temple Street Salt Lake City, UT | | gardner.utah.edu
Facebook.com/gardnerpolicyinstitute | Twitter.com/KemGardnerInst | LinkedIn