1. PLANNING SITUATIONS - a general approach to scenario development -
Iver Johansen
Norwegian Defence Research Establishment

2. FOUR PROBLEMS Jamming by scenarios Flawed scenario selection
Scenarios as predictions
Scenario officialism

3. PLANNING SITUATIONS AND SCENARIOS
- General types of threats and challenges X X X
Scenarios:
Specific points
within the
“scenario space” X X X X X X
PI PII PIII ……………… Pn

4. PLANNING SITUATIONS - PARAMETERS -
Object of security:
Norway
“The rest of the world”
Type of actor
Non-state actors
State actors
Russia
Type of conflict

5. CONFLICT TYPOLOGY INTENSITY Low intensity conflicts
High
Low intensity conflicts
International crises
Sabotage
Small-scale terrorist attacks
Incidents
War between states
War within states
Large-scale terrorist attacks
Limited attacks
High
SCOPE
Low

6. PLANNING SITUATIONS: PARAMETERS
PARAMETERS VALUES
Security object Norway Rest of the world
Type of actor Non-state actors state actors Russia
Intensity of conflict Low High
Scope of conflict Low High

7. NATIONAL PLANNING SITUATIONS
INTENSITY
Low
High P4
Russia
High
International crisis and war
SCOPE P2
Non-state actors
Terrorist attacks
State actors/Russia
State actors/Russia
Low
Limited attack
Missile attack
Raids P1
Incidents
Low-level crises P3

8. INTERNATIONAL PLANNING SITUATIONS
INTENSITY
Low
High
Non-state actors/state actors/
Russia
Non-state actors
War between states
War within states
Large-scale terrorist
attacks
Limited attacks
High
Organised crime
Terrorist attacks
Sabotage
Riots P5
SCOPE P6
Non-state actors
Low
State actors