1. Global Economy and Business MOBILITY AND MIGRATION
Prof.ssa Luisa Natale

2. MOBILITY AND MIGRATION
4a. MEASURES

3. Measures The study of migration focuses on:
Intensity (absolute values, rate, …)
Distance and direction of flow - that is, specifying the origin and destination of the migration flows
C) The structure of the migrant population according to the main features of biodemographic, socio-economic, ethnic and cultural type

4. A) Intensity of migration
Estimate of NET MIGRATION
Net total of migrants during the period, that is, the total number of immigrants less the annual number of emigrants, including both citizens and noncitizens

5. NET MIGRATION ESTIMATE
A. Direct estimate
For example:
Equation of Population: Italy 2010 (slide 6)
Source →//demo.istat.it/index.html
→ Bilancio demografico 2010
B. Indirect estimate

6. Total Population Balance
nPt = nPt-1+nB∆t - nD∆t +n I∆t - nE∆t
B = births
D = deaths
I = Immigration
E = Emigration
t = time, n = type of population (in this case, total population)
nB∆t - nD∆t = Natural Increase
n I∆t - nE∆t = Net Migration

7. Total Population Increase
nPt - nPt-1 = Total population increase
nPt - nPt-1= nB∆t - nD∆t +n I∆t - nE∆t
This is the classical definition of a population balance

8. The real population balance
In countries with census and population registers, the balance is not merely a result of natural and migration increase
Other components are present in a balance (see, for instance, Italy)

9. The two population balances
nPt - nPt-1= nB∆t - nD∆t +n I∆t - nE∆t
the classical population balance
nPt - nPt-1= nB∆t - nD∆t +n I∆t - nE∆t + n OI∆t - nOE∆t + n IntI∆t - nIntE∆t
n OI∆t - nOE∆t = other registered/cancelled
(n IntI∆t - nIntE∆t )= total internal balance
the real population balance (see Italy)

10. The internal migration balance
(n IntI∆t - nIntE∆t )= total internal balance = enrolled from others municipalities-cancelled to other municipalities It should be egual to zero, but due to late in the process of registration/deregistration of flows in each municipalities the balance is always different from zero (often fifty-sixty thousands of movements, very scarce in comparison of 1,3 millions of internal movements)

11. EXERCISE
Calcolate:
1) the Equation of total population in Italy, 2010, (Direct estimate ,slide 12)
2) total population increase (Direct estimate, slide 12)

12. TOTAL POPULATION BALANCE A. Direct estimate (Italy, 2010)

13. EXERCISE Natural Increase= nB∆t - nD∆t = 561944 – 587488 = -25544
Net (International) Migration = Enrolled from abroad – cancelled to abroad = +n I∆t - nE∆t = – 78771= 380,085
Technical balance n OI∆t - nOE∆t = other registered – others cancelled = – =
(n IntI∆t - nIntE∆t )=total internal balance= =10949
Other components (net migration due to other reasons): – = - 68,427
Net Migration (other reasons compr.): – 68427= 311,658

14. Equation of Population: Italy 2010, 31.12
60,626,442 = 60,340,328 +(-25,544)+ 311,658
where:
Natural Increase: - 25,544
Net (International) Migration: ,085
Other components (net migration due to other reasons): - 68,427
Net Migration (other reasons compr.): + 311,658
Total Increase: 60,626, ,340,328 = 286,114

15. FOREIGN POPULATION BALANCE A. Direct estimate

16. Equation of Foreign population
Population Total Increase → fPt - fPt-1
fPt - fPt-1 = fBt - fDt + fIt - fEt - fNt +fOIt - fOEt +
+ fIntI∆t - nIntE∆t
B=births, D=deaths, I=Immigration, E=Emigration, N=Naturalization
O=technical adijustments, Int = internal moves; where:
fBt - fDt = Natural Increase
fIt - fEt = Net (International) Migration (enrolled from abroad-cancelled to abroad)
fOIt- fOEt =Technical balance (other enrolled-other cancelled)
fIntI∆t - nIntE∆t =Internal moves (enrolled from other municipalities-cancelled to others municipalities)

17. EXERCISE
Calcolate:
1) the Equation of foreign population in Italy, 2010, (Direct estimate ,slide 12)
2) foreign population increase (Direct estimate, slide 12)

18. Equation of Foreign population
fPt - fPt-1 = fBt - fDt + fIt - fEt - fNt +fOIt - fOEt +
+ fIntI∆t - nIntE∆t
B=births, D=deaths, I=Immigration, E=Emigration, N=Naturalization
O=technical adijustments, Int = internal moves; where:
fBt - fDt = Natural Increase = +72,958= 78, ,124
fIt - fEt = Net (International) Migration (enrolled from abroad-cancelled to abroad)= 424, ,817 =
fOIt- fOEt =Technical balance (other enrolled-other cancelled)= =
fIntI∆t - nIntE∆t =Internal moves (enrolled from other municipalities-cancelled to others municipalities) = – = 5377

19. FOREIGN NET MIGRATION ESTIMATE A. Direct estimate
Net (International) Migration:
Net Migration (other reasons compr.): – =

20. Equation of Foreign Population (Italy 2010)
4,570,317 = 4,235, , ,238 + (-65,938)
4,570, ,235,059 = + 72, , ,938
335,258 = 335,258
Total Increase = 335,258
Net Migration (other reasons compr.): +391,682 – 68, ,377 =
Natural Increase = +72,958
Naturalised = -65,938

21. Foreign population increase
(Italy 2010) =

22. EXERCISE Calculate the equation of the foreign population
by distinguish each component
Resident foreign population at 31 December and demographic balance from 9 October 2011 to 31 December Italy

23. Foreign contribution to the increase
During the 2010 (but the same happened in the previous years…) the total population increase in Italy could be disaggregated in two component: