1. Ready to Compromise? Where Voters Stand on the Brexit Impasse
John Curtice
NatCen Social Research/University of Strathclyde
Senior Fellow, UK in a Changing Europe
@whatukthinks whatukthinks.org/eu

2. Questions What did voters make of Mrs May’s compromise?
How might alternative compromises fair?
How about passing the decision back to voters?
What are the opportunities and constraints facing the parties?

3. Support or Oppose The Deal?
Source: YouGov

4. Plunging The Depths of Pessimism
Source: ORB

5. A Remarkable Outbreak of Unity!
Source: Average of 6 YouGov polls,

6. Relative Popularity
Source: Deltapoll, ICM, IQR, Opinium, Survation, YouGov

7. Different Priorities
Sources: YouGov ; Survation ; Deltapoll

8. Procedural Pluralism
Source: Opinium

9. Hiding A Polarised Structure
Source: Average of 6 polls by Opinium

10. Comparing The Substantive Options
Source: BMG Research Figures for ‘All’ are recalculations from the original data

11. Rating The Options
Source: BMG Research

12. An Explicit Search for Compromise
Source: YouGov

13. A Soft Brexit Does Not Bridge The Divide
Source: YouGov

14. Stay in the Single Market and Customs Union?
Sources: Greenberg Quinian Rosner; YouGov: Sept. 2018

15. Another Third Choice?
Source: Survation

16. A People’s/Public Vote on …...

17. Referendum on Remain vs Leave

18. Wording Matters To Leave Voters – But Evidently A Remainer Project
Source: 12 polls conducted by Ashcroft, BMG, Deltapoll, Opinium Populus, Survation, YouGov:

19. Hindsight From YouGov

20. EURef2 Poll of Polls

21. The Turnover of ‘Votes’
Vote Now/Vote 2016
Remain
(%)
Leave
Did Not Vote 87 9 44 7 83 18
Undecided/Would Not Vote 6 8 38
Source: Average of 13 polls conducted by BMG, ComRes, Deltapoll, Kantar, and YouGov between and

22. Deal vs Remain
Sources: Opinium, Populus, Survation, YouGov

23. Beware The Leavers Who Won’t Say
Source: Average of 3 polls by YouGov –

24. Mirror Images
Source: Average of Polls by ComRes, Kantar, Survation and YouGov

25. Reflecting the Procedural Divide
Source: Average of 5 polls by Opinium

26. And the Substantive One

27. Party Division On A Soft Brexit
Source: YouGov

28. And On Another Referendum
Source: 10 polls conducted by Ashcroft, BMG, Deltapoll, Opinium Populus, Survation, YouGov:

29. Not Ready To Compromise?
No procedural or substantive option appears to be both widely popular and capable of bridging the Brexit divide
A soft Brexit is a Remainer compromise that runs the risk of being little loved – much like Mrs May’s Leaver compromise
A second referendum is not as popular as sometimes claimed and is also a Remainer solution
Although Con & Lab have an incentive to seek a compromise, their voters reflect the Brexit divide