1. The Legacy of Historical Conflict: Evidence from Africa (2014) In: American Political Science Review Presented by: Vanessa Vohs

2. Authors Timothy Besley Marta Reynal-Querol
LSE and Political Science and Canadian
Marta Reynal-Querol
Pompeu Fabra-ICREA and Barcelona

3. Structure What we already knew Impact of precolonial conflict
Approach
Data
Postcolonial conflict
Trust and identity
Economic growth
Historical kingdoms
Conclusion
Discussion

4. What we already knew The impact of colonialism in Africa
Zimbabwe GDP per capita: 1,008 USD
Great Britain GDP per capita 42,514 USD

5. What we already knew
Does colonialism constitute the only factor which deprived Zimbabwe from economic growth and led to a larger scale of conflict?
What impact do precolonial conflicts have?

6. Hypotheses Natural ressource dependence
Weak and poorly functioning political institutions
Ethnic fragmentation and polarization
Endemic poverty
Closer look at the subnational level necessary

7. „Acts of violence, opression, revolt, civil war, and so forth, chequer the history of every African state.“ (Fortes and Evans-Pritchard 1940, 16)
Conflict is far from new
Slavery and its aftermath was a cornerstone of organized political conflicts
Does the legacy of precolonial conflicts in Africa have a significant impact on the prevalence of postcolonial conflict?
What does conflict year mean? at least 25 battle-related deaths in one calendar year.

8. Underlying assumptions
Conflicts are most prevalent in poor and weakly institutionalized countries (Acemoglu, Robinson)
Conflict prevalence in Africa is comparatively high
8,5 % of country-years are conflict years in Africa since 1950
compared to 5% in the rest of the world
Is postcolonial conflict correlated with the prevalence of precolonial conflicts?

9. Approach Data Comparison
From a conflict catalogue to locate 91 conflicts in Africa between 1400 and (“includes most important conflicts”)
Comparison
Subnational conflicts between 1997 and 2010

10. Two-levels analysis
1. across-countries 2. within-countries

11. Approach
120km x 120km grids from the Yale University G-econ: 3546 country-grid cells spread across 49 countries in Africa.

12. The „pill“
In the precolonial period, Africa was divided into protostates (historical kingdoms) with heterogeneous political systems  Many countries received the „pill“ (historical kingdom) and a few did not

13. https://www. globalsecurity

15. Main findings
Historical conflict is correlated with a greater prevalence of postcolonial conflict
After countries gained independence
In more recent conflicts
Historical conflict is correlated with lower levels of trust, a stronger sense of ethnic identity, and a weaker sense of national identity across countries
Historical conflict is negatively correlated with subsequent patterns of development within countries

16. Descriptive Statistics
Civil war prevalence in years now (mean)
No historical conflict: 2.24
With historical conflict: 4.62
 significant
Expropriation risk (scale 1-7)
No historical conflict: 6.17
With historical conflict: 5.39
 Not significant

17. Descriptive Statistics (grid-cell level)
Capital city in the grid:
No historical conflict: 1.4%
With historical conflict: 12%
Conflict (dummy-variable)
No historical conflict: 39%
With historical conflict: 84%
Belonging to an historical kingdom
Conflicts are twice as likely in grid cells which belong to Historical Kingdoms

18. Descriptive Statistics
Conclusion:
European powers made significantly use of preexisting power structures
Colonial control did not respect boundaries of historical kingdoms
 Weakened existing authority structures

19. Problems in measurement
Precolonial period
Colonial period
Postcolonial period

20. Slavery
How can we make sure that slavery wasn‘t the main driving factor towards civil war prevalence?
Inclusion of a slave trade variable (Nunn, 2008)
Slavery is positively correlated with subsequent civil conflict
It does not disrupt the correlation with war prevalence between

21. Problems in measurement
Initial conditions
Economic
Geographic
Political
Social
Historical conflict
Subsequent Economic, Political and Social Outcomes Developments
Contemporary conflict

22. Problems in measurement
Precolonial conflict
Distrust among social groups
Attitudes & Identities
Economic legacy

23. Robustness Control variables:
GDP per capita in 1970, latitude, longitude, minimum rainfall, maximum humidity, low temperature, measures of natural resource abundance…
Remains significant
For an additional year of historical conflict, the country suffers about 2 months of additional conflict in the postindependence period
 60 years of conflicts predicts an additional 10 years of postindependence conflict

24. Omitted factors
„there is a reason to be cautious in interpreting [the results] beyond the usual concerns about the vulnerability of cross-country analysis to unobserved omitted variables“
Dropping Angola and Ethiopia leads no longer to a correlation

25. Income Levels and Institutions
A country with a history of precolonial conflict will have a 5% lower level of per capita GDP in 2000 compared with a country that has had no historical conflicts
but postcolonial conflict could also have an effect
No significant correlation between expropriation risk at the country level and historical conflict

26. Trust and Identity
Negative correlation between trust and historical conflict
Positive and significant correlation between having only a sense of ethnic identity and the extent of historical conflict within a country

27. European influence
Conflict between 1400 and 1700 is positively correlated with non- European conflict between 1700 and 1820
Non-European conflict between 1700 and 1820 is correlated with contemporary conflict

28. Conclusion Some phenomena are the product of historical legacies
Should not lead to the conclusion that what we see is historically determined
Contribution of the paper is useful for policy advise

29. https://www. globalsecurity

32. Recap: Main findings
Historical conflict is correlated with a greater prevalence of postcolonial conflict
After countries gained independence
In more recent conflicts
Historical conflict is correlated with lower levels of trust, a stronger sense of ethnic identity, and a weaker sense of national identity across countries
Historical conflict is negatively correlated with subsequent patterns of development within countries

33. Personal Conclusion & Discussion
Significance of precolonial conflicts
Is an appropriate period?
Is an appropriate period?
Independence in many African countries happened earlier
The impact of arbitrary boundaries
Rhodesian Bush War
Gukurahundi: massacres of Ndebele civilians by the Shona majoity