1. ENSO –El Niño Southern Oscillation
Drivers of ENSO variability By
MSc. Per Strandberg

2. Current understanding of ENSO by the climate community
Dynamic Models : Understanding Good Walker circulations, Kelvin Waves
Forecast : Bad 2-3 months
Long range forecast impossible : Wrong
Variability driven by weather noise : Wrong
Understanding what triggers ENSO variability: They have no clue
Black Box Syndrome
The butterfly effect and chaos theory

3. The real drivers of ENSO And the real butterfly effect
Lunar Perigee Pulses
Variations on solar wind
Variations in Earth’s magnetic field, Ap, Kp
Random weather noise 5-10%
Electromagnetic influences from the Sun 30-25%
Lunar Perigee Pulses 60-70%

4. Problem: In-data -> Out-data
ENSO drivers hidden deep in data
Problem: In-data -> Out-data
Non linear relationship
No fix frequencies
Time delays: months to years
Linear regression, frequency analysis, dynamic, statistical models = times series ANN, Markov chain: Doesn’t work
ANN: Works

5. ANN applied on ENSO Asymptotic transfer functions Hundreds of weights
1979
2005
2016
2022
Asymptotic transfer functions
Hundreds of weights
Input from previous and back 3 years
Iterative process
Red Training: Minimize variance
Green Testing: Minimal variance -> Save weights
Hundreds of transfer functions recursively created
Blue: Recreate ENSO based on saved weights

6. Ap-index real and forecast

7. Input neuron data No ENSO data input in the neurons
The gravitational tidal anomaly vector during lunar perigee – combined Lunar and solar tidal force.
The latitude of that vector
Solar wind data. Temperature, density and speed
Earth’s magnetic field. Kp and Ap Influenced by the Sun
No Ultraviolet lights. No long range data series

8. Randomness and ensembles
Ensembles of 9 different setups of the neurons
9 runs with a mean value
Random setups of neurons for each run

9. ENSO from 1980 to 2022

10. Zoomed in on 2014 to 2022

11. Current ENSO prediction
Didn’t miss the recent El Niño, but missed the strength
Current la Niña is now weak, but I expect it to strengthening and peek around Februari next year
Return to high ENSO value with a peek early in 2018
ENSO high values in the coming years

12. Test period 2012,14,15

13. Correlations against derivation of global temperature anomaly
SST
110.2%
SW temp
26.3%
ENSO
100%
AMO
22.4%
LOD
68.5%
Ap Index
13.3%
SW speed
49.5%
SW density
9.7%
SOI
45.8%
GCR
<0
Kp Index
27.4%
PDO

14. Tidal forcing of ENSO
I looked at tidal forcing at New Moon, Full Moon and Lunar Perigee.
I got good correlations with tidal forcing at Lunar Perigee.
I got best correlation against ENSO derivation in Lunar-solar tidal forcing during Perigee

15. Moon’s elliptical orbit
The elliptical orbit of the Moon, 8,8 year cyclicity

16. Lunar Node
18.6 year periosity

17. Tidal force vector
Each time Lunar Perigee happens, ENSO gets a pulse which size and direction is dependent on the size of tidal forcing and its latitude
Lunar Perigee is correlated to the derivate value of ENSO (∆ENSO), while changes in solar wind and Earth’s magnetic field are correlated directly to the value of ENSO
The Moon travels over 14 degrees each day during Perigee.
Lunar Perigee Pulse changes appear chaotic in strength and angle from one pulse to the next

18. Percent variability
The difference in the Lunar gravitational pull during high tide between Apogee and Perigee is about 60%
During Lunar Perigee the impact from the Sun add an additional variability of about 30% to the gravitational pull

19. Pacific Ocean Currents

20. Kelvin Waves

21. Kelvin Waves and MJO Perigee happens every 27.5 day
Kelvin Waves are generated in multiples of 27.5 days
MJO area of enhanced convections moves counter clockwise in the tropics. Makes an orbit in 30 to 60 days
When ENSO is positive and MJO is positive in the Kelvin Wave generation area (western pacific), Kelvin Waves are generated during westerly wind bursts

22. Kelvin Waves
Kelvin Wave creates a tongue of warm water which moves east under the surface along the equator
This water may resurface near South America
This water may resurface west of the Galapagos
This water may dissipate and never reach the surface
MJO variation is probably driven by the same forces that is driving ENSO