2. Red to Gray

3. % Population Decrease, 2000-2025
1.6 million
17 million
12 million

4. % Population Change,
Population gained (millions) Population lost (millions)
Turkey Russia 17.3 Latvia 0.3
Uzbekistan Ukraine 11.8 Moldova 0.3
Tajikistan Romania 2.3 Serbia and Montenegro 0.3
Turkmenistan 1.6 Poland 1.6 Kazakhstan 0.3
Azerbaijan Bulgaria 1.5 Croatia 0.2
Kyrgyzstan Belarus 1.4 Armenia 0.2
Albania Georgia 0.8 Estonia 0.1
FYR Macedonia 0.1 Hungary 0.8 Slovakia 0.1
Czech Republic 0.5 Bosnia and Herzegovina 0.1
Lithuania 0.4 Slovenia 0.1

6. % of over-65 population

7. Managing the “third transition” is closely linked to progressing through first two transitions
“Old, late
reformers”
“Old, early
reformers”
Aging
“Young, late
reformers”
Reforms

8. Red Light to Green Light

9. Increasing labor force participation could ease potential shortages
Labor force participation rates (%), latest year
Eastern Europe
and former Soviet Union
OECD

10. Productivity gains will be a more important factor in economic growth than labor supply
Growth decomposition,
Russia
Poland
Hungary
Share of growth due to higher
Labor productivity
Employment rates
Working-age population

11. But education and lifelong learning must substantially improve
Adult participation (%) in education and training, 2006

12. Red Ink to
Black Ink

13. Aging will strain pension systems …but spending can be moderated by reforms

14. Providing affordable long-term care will be a major challenge
Dependent elderly as % of total population, 2005 and
projections for 2050 under “constant disability” scenario

15. Red to Gray

16. Managing the “third transition” is closely linked to progressing through first two transitions
“Old, late reformers”:
Rest of Former Soviet Union and rest of Former Yugoslavia
“Old, early reformers”:
EU-10,
Croatia and Albania
Aging
“Young, late reformers”:
Four poorer Central Asian republics
Reforms

17. Aging is an opportunity no less than youth itself …
The only danger lies in complacency.