1. University of Warwick Approach for Modelling Operation
This is how we approach modelling the operational savings for large infrastructure projects 1
University of Warwick Approach for Modelling Operation
Future Thermal Energy Conference th October Mark Jarvis Sustainability Engineer University of Warwick Estates Office

2. Know your loads Know your goals HH Thermal Demand Data
HH Electrical Demand Data
Planned and Proposed Growth
Tariffs, Taxes, Subsidies, Maintenance etc.
Map this out year by year
Know your goals
Know what you use, when you use it and how much it costs at those times.
Estimate all of these in the future.
Know why you are doing it!
Save carbon, Save money, both?
Resilience, capacity, research, reputation?

3. Modelling The Plant Model the current business as usual approach
What technology(ies) are suitable?
Ask your consultant for all options
Not only the one they are familiar with!
Understand how it could all fit together
Understand the capabilities and efficiencies
Boiler
Model what you are doing now to see how well your model works compared to real life and to give you a baseline.
What could you do on your site? CHP-natural or biogas?, Biomass, AD, Solar Thermal/PV, HP-what source?
In principle how would it plug in and roughly how would you operate it (know your goal)
Simplify it to boxes which convert one fuel/cost to another at various efficiencies
CHP
Heat Pump

4. Modelling The Operation
When do you need to operate?
Will the plant generate the savings?
What impact on operating costs
Load Duration Curve may not be good enough. i.e. CHP: what if you need your heat when you don’t need the elec? Heat Pump: What if you need your heat when elec is most expensive?

5. Business Case Compare results to Business as Usual scenario
Compare year-on-year operation costs with investments
Compare to other options
Tweak the rates/efficiencies – check sensitivity
Are suppliers contracted on performance?
What if we just put the money in the bank?
What if…?
What savings did you make?
Year on Year considering your growth.
Other options may be operating it differently, not just different kit
What is it sensitive to? Efficiency? Unit Rates?

6. Got all that? No!? Yes! Questions & Discussion
What else could we consider?
…or shall we just move on?

7. Global Approach to Sustainability
“In the end, we will protect only what we love. We will love only what we understand. 
We will understand only what we are taught.”
Baba Dioum, Senegalese poet and naturalist
Come and join us.
Your ideas welcome.
Research and industrial partnerships.