1. Introduction to the third Technical Workshop on Fuel Cycle Simulation
S. David, Paris, July 9th 2018
S. David, introduction 3TWFCS, July 9th 2018, Paris

2. Energy – climate constraint
At the World scale, energy demand is increasing, mainly due to Asia
Total electricity consumption
At the same time, CO2 emission should be divided by 2 or 3 before 2050, and shloud reach 0 before 2100…
China
+300 TWh/an 1
S. David, introduction 3TWFCS, July 9th 2018, Paris

3. Trajectories toe – tCO2 per capita1980 - 2014
S. David, introduction 3TWFCS, July 9th 2018, Paris

4. Nuclear power in the coming century
Uncertainty about the deployment or not of nuclear power in the world in the coming century
Long term strategies : waste transmutation and breeding
TWh/y
2100
Factor 5 to 40
2050
Factor 1 to 10
Figure from G. Mathonnières, CEA/I-Tese
S. David, introduction 3TWFCS, July 9th 2018, Paris

5. S. David, introduction 3TWFCS, July 9th 2018, Paris
Example, COSIME Model 2050
COSIME model
Energy demand in Gtoe/y (sober)
Climate constraint : CO2 emission are divided by 2
Renewables energy developed at an optimistic level = 7,5 Gtoe/y
Carbon storage : 12 Gt/y !
Nuclear : only used for urban population (concentrated electricy production)
Result : nuclear 5 Gtoe/y, 8 times more than today, but not so unrealistic !
France 2013 : 7100 kWh/cap/y
US 2013
S. David, introduction 3TWFCS, July 9th 2018, Paris

6. A naive view of U reserves
200t/(GWe.y)
130t/(GWe.y)
 Tails 235U dans Uapp, recycling U, Pu
Scénario 100% Gen2 + Gen3
Nuclear energy production
Cumulated U consumption
Scenario x8
Estimted reserves <400$/kg
Scenario x2
Transition towards fast breeder reactor is needed if nuclear power is multiplied by ~3-5 and would require large Pu inventories : 20 tons/ GWe
S. David, introduction 3TWFCS, July 9th 2018, Paris

7. S. David, introduction 3TWFCS, July 9th 2018, Paris
Fuel cycle studies
Different Fuel cycle strategies
Open cycle
Once-through reprocessing
Multireprocessing in PWR of in breeder reactors
Transmutation of minor actinides
The problematic of nuclear fuel cycle or scenario studies can be very different depending on the country
France : reprocessing in PWR? Waiting for Gen4 systems? Only one company operating the nuclear power plants.
Germany : storage of spent-fuel, could Pu be sold to other countries?
US : stabilization of nuclear power, many companies operating NPP
The question adressed by Nuclear Fuel cycle can be different :
Uranium / fuel market, optimisation of U reserves, preparing Gen4 deployment, …
But some scientific questions are the same
Modelization of fuel evolution during irradiation / coupling with scenarios studies
Coupling physics and economy / Sociology aspekts of the scenarios
S. David, introduction 3TWFCS, July 9th 2018, Paris

8. Dynamic fuel cycle simulation
Explore the different possibilities
Produce quantitative comparisons between different options / trajectories
Dynamic fuel cycle simulation tools are continuously improved
Calculation of material inventories/fluxes
Technological constraints in the fuel cycle facilities
Impacts of fuel cycle on reactor safety, and impact of reactor safety on the fuel cycle
Improving the multi-disciplinary approach
Mathematics / computer science / machine learning : changing the way we perform scenario studies
Coupling with material science, eonomy, sociology, …
Cost calculation
The diversity of the backgrounds of the participants show that bridges between disciplinary fields are being built
Nevertheless, the scenario “community” remains small.
This workshop is essential !
But we should need international founding for research projects : Europe? Bilateral collaboration, …
S. David, introduction 3TWFCS, July 9th 2018, Paris