1. Environmental Scan & Program Demand Gap Analysis
Hartnell College
Environmental Scan & Program Demand Gap Analysis
May 2018

2. Summary Welcome About Environmental Scan Program Demand Gap Analysis
Key Takeaways

3. Environmental Scan & Program Demand Gap Analysis
About This Study
Environmental Scan & Program Demand Gap Analysis
Environmental Scan
What does the regional economy look like in terms of occupations, industries, and the community?
Program Demand Gap Analysis
Where is Hartnell meeting the needs of
the community and what opportunities
are there to expand?

4. Economic Overview
An examination of the industries and occupations within Santa Cruz, San Benito, and Monterey Counties.

5. About the Regional Economy
Largest Industries in Monterey County
Many industries will see significant growth over the next decade, thus we would expect to see demand for the college’s programs to continue to grow.
Source: Emsi Employees & Self-Employed

6. About the Regional Economy
Unique Industries (LQ) in Monterey County
Seven industries are large employers and have high LQ’s, an indication that the region has a comparative advantage or specialization in certain industry:
• Local Government
• Support Activities for Agriculture & Forestry
• Crop Production
• Social Assistance
• Federal Government
• Accommodation
• Merchant Wholesalers, Nondurable Goods
Source: Emsi Employees & Self-Employed

7. About the Regional Economy
Educational Attainment in Monterey County
The region has a significant Hispanic population with less than a high school diploma. This population grew significantly over the past decade.
Source: Emsi Employees & Self-Employed

8. About the Regional Economy
Population Growth in Monterey County
Source: Emsi Employees & Self-Employed

9. About the Regional Economy
Economic Characteristic's Monterey County
Median Household Income
Poverty Rate
Unemployment Rate
Monterey County
$60,889
12.3%
6.9%
Big Sur CCD
$61,972
3.1%
6.2%
Carmel-by-the-Sea CCD
$93,529
2.4%
3.6%
Carmel Valley CCD
$91,741
4.7%
7.0%
Castroville CCD
$62,463
10.8%
8.7%
Gonzales CCD
$53,263
19.3%
3.9%
Greenfield CCD
$47,826
21.3%
9.2%
King City CCD
$43,559
22.5%
8.5%
Pajaro CCD
$65,861
11.8%
Salinas CCD
$53,323
16.1%
7.2%
San Ardo CCD
$53,224
10.3%
8.2%
Seaside-Monterey CCD
$65,405
7.4%
5.9%
Soledad CCD
$53,342
15.1%
7.6%
Toro Park CCD
$123,225
0.5%
4.3%
Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates

10. About the Regional Economy
Commuting Patterns in Monterey County
Commuting patterns demonstrate the interaction one region has with surrounding ones. As demonstrated in the graphic:
53,247 people employed in Monterey County but living outside
98,618 People living and employed in Monterey County
48,684 people living in Monterey County but employed outside
Source: Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD), Census Bureau

11. About the Regional Economy
Top Net In-Commuters in Santa Cruz, San Benito, and Monterey Counties
SOC
Description
2017 Jobs
2017 Resident Workers
2017 Net Commuters
Agricultural Workers
45,870
35,261
10,609
Military occupations
5,941
4,544
1,397
Other Teachers and Instructors
4,318
3,621
697
Preschool, Primary, Secondary, and Special Education School Teachers
6,984
6,421
563
Motor Vehicle Operators
5,954
467
Other Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations
4,133
3,885
248
Food Processing Workers
1,472
1,226
246
Law Enforcement Workers
2,429
2,218
211
Supervisors of Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Workers
1,294
1,142
152
Other Education, Training, and Library Occupations
2,757
2,630
127
Source: Emsi Employees & Self-Employed

12. About the Regional Economy
Top Net Out-Commuters in Santa Cruz, San Benito, and Monterey Counties
SOC
Description
2017 Jobs
2017 Resident Workers
2017 Net Commuters
Food and Beverage Serving Workers
10,636
12,257
-1,621
Computer Occupations
2,518
3,697
-1,179
Retail Sales Workers
13,207
13,948
-741
Cooks and Food Preparation Workers
5,370
6,099
-729
Business Operations Specialists
4,559
5,268
-709
Other Personal Care and Service Workers
3,487
4,053
-566
Engineers
908
1,428
-520
Other Office and Administrative Support Workers
4,311
4,795
-484
Material Recording, Scheduling, Dispatching, and Distributing Workers
5,174
5,656
-482
Other Food Preparation and Serving Related Workers
2,519
2,988
-469
Source: Emsi Employees & Self-Employed

13. Program Demand Gap Analysis
The program demand gap analysis compares the regional job demand to current program offerings and reveals potential areas of expansion or contraction.
Demand is defined as the average annual openings from , for the educational level the program trains for and below.
Supply is the average number of program completers, as reported to IPED’s over a three year period.
The difference between these figures represents the “gap” or “surplus.”

14. Opportunities: Certificate Level
Source: Emsi program demand gap model.
*Certificate is an award of less that two years at Hartnell College.

15. Opportunities: Associate Level
Source: Emsi program demand gap model.

16. Opportunities: Associates for Transfer
Source: Emsi program demand gap model.

17. Note on Market Oversupply
Excess supply is not necessarily an indication that your program needs to scale back. However, it does indicate that you should investigate these programs to ensure your graduates are finding employment. Your graduates could be in demand while graduates of other programs may have a harder time finding employment.

18. Potential Programs
An examination of occupations not currently being trained for by Hartnell College’s current programs.

19. Potential Programs: Certificate Level
Occupation by Gap

20. Potential Programs: Associate Level
Occupation by Gap
Source: Emsi program demand gap model.

21. Potential Programs: Associates for Transfer
Occupation by Gap
Source: Emsi program demand gap model.

22. Key Takeaways
Agriculture is abundant throughout the region. Many jobs in agriculture industries may be seasonal or for have wages below what the college would want to train for.
There are multiple areas where the college could increase the number of graduates. Some potential programs to expand could include welding, business, and automotive programs.
The region has a large population with less than a high school degree and within the area there a large swaths of poverty. The college’s programs and accessibility should reflect these issues.
Hartnell should consider introducing programs or curriculum that could train students for supervisory roles, dental hygienists, and teachers.

23. Thank you