1. Modeling the Effects of Disasters on a Human Population and Resources
TJHSST Computer Systems Tech Lab
Joshua Yoon

2. Abstract 400 disasters reported in 2008 Goals
epidemics, tsunamis, hurricanes, earthquakes, etc
Goals
accurately model a human population using logistical growth & system dynamics
accurately model the effects of disasters on a human population
from the model, be able to predict the effects of future disasters on a nearby human population

3. Background What is System Dynamics?
a modeling approach to understanding the behavior of complex systems over time
System Dynamics vs. Agent-Based Modeling
system dynamics is relationship based (focuses on internal feedback loops between variables of the system)
agent-based modeling is random interactions between individuals of a system

4. Programming Languages
current system dynamics programming language
Stella : user friendly interface with built in arguments for variables
programming language used to create this project
NetLogo : arguments for variables not built in and relationships must be coded manually

5. Development and Methodology
create a human population
logistical growth
dependent on other variables
implement a Resource Class
inhibits population growth (carrying capacity)
implement disasters and recovery
make disasters that affect human population and have the population respond accordingly
compare test results with real data

6. NetLogo : Coding Interface

7. Coding Interface Translated…
globals [ Day TimeAfterDisaster Humans Resources dt ] to system-dynamics-setup reset-ticks set dt 1.0 set Day 0 set TimeAfterDisaster set Humans HumanPopulationstart set Resources ResourceStart end to system-dynamics-go let local-BirthRate BirthRate let local-DeathRateTsunami DeathRateTsunami let local-DeathRateAsteroid DeathRateAsteroid let local-DeathRateHurricane DeathRateHurricane
let new-Day max( list 0 ( Day + local-daystep - local-newyear ) ) let new-TimeAfterDisaster max( list 0 ( TimeAfterDisaster + local-timestep - local-Reset ) ) let new-Humans max( list 0 ( Humans + local-HumanBirths - local-HumanDeaths + local-NewPeople ) ) let new-Resources max( list 0 ( Resources - local-consumption + local-NewResources ) ) set Day new-Day set TimeAfterDisaster new-TimeAfterDisaster set Humans new-Humans set Resources new-Resources tick-advance dt end to-report ResourceRateDisaster report ifelse-value(Resources < (carryingcapacity / 2)) [((.9 + (.4 * (TimeAfterDisaster / 11000))) * Humans) / 365] [((.9 + (.1 * (TimeAfterDisaster / 11000))) * Humans) / 365]

8. NetLogo : Command Center

9. The Complete Web

10. Human Class

11. Resource Class

12. Deaths and Disaster Class

13. Time Keepers

14. All Components Combined…

15. Variable Control and Graphing

16. Data Comparison www.emdat.be database of disasters of past century
took top disasters and found correlations within the numbers

17. Results & Analysis

18. A Closer Look…