1. Some lessons from SMIP2?

2. History of SMIP2 SMIP2 - 1st and 2nd season potential predictability
- AGCM using observed SST and sea-ice
- initialize from reanalysis
SMIP2/HFP
- 1st season actual predictive skill in operational context – no information from the future
- 2-tier forecast or 1-tier forecast with coupled system
- initialized from reanalyses

3. Why SMIP2 New knowledge on SP
Intercomparison of models in the SP context
Measures of potential and/or actual “predictability” in current models
Diagnostic subprojects to entrain “outside expertise” to analyze results
Collection of results for research into multi-model methods
(forerunner/prototype/precursor/exemplar of TFSP 1st Experiment)

4. Basics

5. Declared participants and data

6. Participation Modest participation despite efforts to recruit
Reasons…?
- problem not of interest
- lack of a clear output (i.e. compare IPCC)
- funding
- timing/other priorities
- organizational support

7. Some problems Scientific interest - SMIP2 was much like SMIP1
- SMIP2/HFP tried to broaden but perhaps too late
- no specific scientific output such as an analysis/Report
Data/organizational support
- PCMDI commitment to central data repository weak … organizational changes + IPCC
- IRI commitment modest
- passive rather than active data collection
Other commitments – espc. IPCC

8. Funding/competing priorities
CliPAS/APCC
CliPAS/APCC
funded project able to attract participants
funded Workshops (IPRC)
active data collection

9. Lessons for future WGSIP projects
Clear scientific goal
- includes commitment to basic analysis and a Report
- diagnostic subproject support
Clear data policy
- IPCC shows the virtue of a “dedicated” data repository
- active data policy of “recruiting” data is preferred
- otherwise KISS including amount of data
Funding
- commitment of funding a major asset
- research, workshops, etc.
Organizational support
- Website, Workshop(s) etc

10. End of lesson