1. Heating the future
Mark Atherton

2. Introduction to EnergyPath Networks
A modelling approach for strategic, spatial planning of the future energy system for a local area.
How would you decarbonise building energy demands at the lowest cost to society?
What would you need to do? Where in your local area? When would it need to happen?
What investments would be required in buildings, networks and energy production across heat, electricity and gas?
What is the sensitivity to uncertain factors, e.g. how would the electricity price in 2050 change the lowest cost plan; what plan is low risk and cost effective across most of the uncertainty?
The approach considers spatial factors – the relationships between buildings and the networks that serve them
Uses an optimisation technique that tests all options and finds the lowest cost route to cutting carbon emissions
The outputs provide evidence to aid consensus building – stakeholders and local communities.
© 2018 Energy Technologies Institute LLP
EnergyPath is the registered trade mark of Energy Technologies Institute LLP

3. EnergyPath Networks in Bury
The work to date has been funded by the Energy Technologies Institute and delivered by Energy Systems Catapult.
Currently trialling the approach with three local authorities, including Bury.
Working with Bury LA, GMCA, Cadent and Electricity North West over the last year.
We collected a large amount of data to represent the local energy system in the model
Then an ongoing process of modelling and improving the representation based on stakeholder feedback.
Tested a wide range of sensitivities including changing energy prices, the availability of lower carbon gas, the impacts of different carbon targets.
Final runs focused on two different trajectories of carbon reduction for Bury – reaching the same decarbonised end point but at different speeds
© 2018 Energy Technologies Institute LLP
EnergyPath is the registered trade mark of Energy Technologies Institute LLP

4. 98% Carbon Reduction by 2050
We consider that without strong incentives people are unlikely to replace heating systems until they reach end of life.
So, there may only be two opportunities to decarbonise each building between now and we call these Transitions One and Two.
The modelling suggests that to reach the carbon target by 2050 major change does not need to happen until Transition Two
There are very good reasons (not considered in the model) to start earlier – the need to test approaches, spread the burden of change etc.
Modelled Domestic Heating Systems in Bury to achieve 2050 Carbon Ambitions
© 2018 Energy Technologies Institute LLP

5. 96% Carbon Reduction by 2035
Modelled Domestic Heating Systems in Bury to achieve an earlier carbon target
The modelling suggests an earlier carbon target does not change the final heating system distribution in Bury.
It requires this change to happen earlier, with more happening in the first transition.
The modelling suggests that working towards a 2035 carbon target increases the total cost of Bury’s energy system by about 30% compared to no local carbon target (discounted total cost to 2050).
In comparison the 2050 target cost 15% more than no local target.
© 2018 Energy Technologies Institute LLP

6. Heating Systems across Bury
Modelled final distribution of domestic heating systems in Bury to achieve decarbonisation
We can map our modelled types of heating system across Bury.
The areas on these maps represents the areas served by different high voltage substations.
Our results can be broken down further by detailed building type in different areas.
We can also produce results on domestic fabric retrofit, non domestic buildings, network infrastructure reinforcement and new build, energy centre technologies and heat and electricity storage.
Results include detailed cost breakdowns of all included aspects.
© 2018 Energy Technologies Institute LLP