1. Theo Farrell, CSI Lecture 6, 2011
COIN and Afghanistan
Theo Farrell, CSI Lecture 6, 2011

3. JCS options (13-15 Sept) (a) cruise missile attacks;
(b) longer bombing campaign;
(c) large-scale invasion
CIA Plan: money, SOF + airpower

4. US demands Hand over leaders of al-Qaeda Close all terrorist camps
Give US full access to verify closure
Release all foreign nationals held captive
Protect foreigners (including aid workers)
President Bush statement to Joint Session of Congress, 20 September 2011

5. Balance of forces Coalition Enemy SOF 300-500 Al Qaeda 2-3,000
Western troops 3-5,000
Taliban 60,000
Northern Alliance 15,000

6. Operation Enduring Freedom
Coalition air offensive (7-19 Oct 2001).
US/UK special forces supported Northern Alliance offensive in northern Afghanistan (late Oct – Nov 2001).
US/UK-led land offensive in southern Afghanistan (Dec 2001 – July 2002).

7. Campaign milestones Mazar-e-Sharif (10 Nov) Kabul (13 Nov)
Konduz (26 Nov)
Kandahar (6 Dec)
Tora Bora (17 Dec)
Paktia (March, May)

8. Political development
UN Bonn Conference, Dec 2001
Transitional Authority up to mid 2002
Loya Jirga elects Hamid Karzai as President, June 2002
Presidential elections, 2004 and 2009
Parliamentary elections, 2005 and 2010

10. Campaign incoherence

11. Operational Progress Protect the population ANSF development
Growth of sub-national governance
Military momentum

12. CIVCAS (2009-Oct 2010) Total ISAF/ANSF Non-adjusted Stable Down 20%
Reduced
Down 50%

13. ANSF numbers Target: Oct 2010 Actual: 24 Sept 2010 ANA 134,000 139,000
ANP
109,000
122,000

15. Not perfect but popular

16. The best counterinsurgents?

17. Goverment-in-a-box?

18. Sub-national governance
80+ KTD
District Delivery Prog: 14 of 80 by Sept 2010
NSP + ASOP producing results

19. Evidence of progress

20. Obama’s War

21. Main effort: the South March 2009 Feb 2010 RC-N 5,080 7,500 RC-W 2,940
5,500
RC-C
5,740
5,000
RC-E
25,570
26,500
RC-S
22,330
54,500

22. Op MOSHTARAK

26. Strategic obstacles Government corruption NATO war-weariness
Insurgent safe havens in Pakistan

27. Fall in public support (%)
Country
2009
2010
United States 55 40
United Kingdom 42 37
Germany 30
France 32

28. The Transition Strategy

29. Most likely scenario
“Continued operational progress is most unlikely to produce desired strategic outcomes.”

30. Relearning the principles of COIN
Political-led campaign
Population = COG
Isolate the insurgent
Operate within the law
Minimum use of force