1. Population Part IV Thomas Malthus, Population Bomb? (A)

2. A Population Bomb? Thomas Malthus (1766-1834, England)
--Felt population growing exponentially and resources growing linearly
--Believed people needed to practice ”moral restraint” to lower CBR or there needed to be a disaster to increase CDR in order to solve population problem

3. Malthus’ Point of Crisis

4. Neo-Malthusians Two recent issues that invigorate Malthus thought:
1. many countries experiencing population growth due to transfer of medical technology
2. new population “stripping” world of resources
Paul Ehrlich (1960s)
warned of a population bomb in 1970s and 1980s because the world’s population was outpacing food production. (Said England would die by 2000, world would undergo world-wide famine- millions would starve to death, advocated luxury taxes on diapers and forced sterilization for men with more than 3 kids)
No bomb, no starving! Could there still be something learned from Ehrlich’s thoughts? Ehrlich said that resources are finite, increased consumption will lead to depletion of those resources

5. Critics of Malthus (Copeland)
Resources are not fixed:
-Trade allows for potential elimination of possibilism
Lack of food resulted from distribution of wealth rather than insufficient food
Population growth can stimulate economic growth
Copeland-”More people=more consumers, more creativity”

6. Population Part IV: Demographic Transition (B)

7. DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL
Demographic Transition - the change in population characteristics of a country to reflect medical technology or economic and social development.

8. Demographic Transition - Stage 1
Hunter-gatherer society in some areas, Agricultural Revolution in others- population fluctuations depended on supply of meat and vegetation and harvest.
High Birth Rate
High Death Rate
Epidemics and plagues
Famine
War
Low Natural Increase Rate
Stationary population growth

9. Demographic Transition - Stage 1
Sign. Today, no country in the world is in Stage 1.

10. Demographic Transition - Stage 2
Continued High Birth Rate
Declining Death Rate
Divided into Two Parts:
1) Industrial Revolution
2) Medical Revolution
High Natural Increase Rate-Why?
High expanding population growth
*England experienced this first because they experienced the Industrial Revolution first. Therefore, the enclosure movement in England was a characteristic of this stage.

11. Demographic Transition - Stage 2
Europe and North America entered Stage 2 in the 1800s
Africa, Asia and Latin America entered into Stage 2 in the early to mid 1900s
European colonization brought medical advancements
Current Examples: Afghanistan, Many Sub-Saharan African countries

12. Demographic Transition - Stage 3
Declining Birth Rate
Urbanization
Wealth
Education
Contraceptives
Increased status of women
Low Death Rate
Low Natural Increase Rate
Slow expanding population growth

13. Demographic Transition - Stage 3
Europe and North America entered Stage 3 in first half of 1900s
Many countries in Latin America and Asia entered Stage 3 in the second half of the 1900s
Current Examples: Mexico, Panama, South Africa, Morocco
***most developing countries

14. Demographic Transition - Stage 4
Low Birth Rate
Low TFR
Women highly involved in education and workforce
Low Death Rate
Low to no Natural Increase Rate
Stationary Population Growth
This stage reflects a highly industrialized, educated society.

16. Demographic Transition - Stage 4
Current Examples
***Most developed countries
(United States, Argentina, Australia, United Kingdom, France, Ireland)

17. Demographic Transition-Stage 5
Fertility rates have fallen significantly below replacement level
Elderly population > Youth population
What does Stage 5 look like on the DTM?
Examples of Stage 5 countries (negative NIR) : Croatia, Estonia, Japan, Greece, Portugal, Italy, Ukraine, Denmark, Russia , Canada, Germany

18. DTM Limitations
Doesn’t include the effects of immigration, EXCEPTIONS DEPENDENT UPON CITIZENSHIP STATUS
Can’t predict how long stages will last
Non-applicable to some countries where wealth and information access are limited.