1. SA Economic Indicators
Report updated:
April 2016
Next update:
May 2016
SA Economic Indicators

2. SA Economic Indicators
What is the SA Economic Indicators report?
Ti’s SA Economic Indicators report is a clear and easy-to-read view of the most currently available data for South Africa’s key economic indicators. Produced on a monthly basis by Ti Research, it draws on official information from various public and private institutions. The report is released in the first week of each new month, reporting on the available data up to and including the last day of the previous month.
How to read this report
Depending on the indicator itself, data is released by the various institutions on a daily, monthly or quarterly basis. The frequency and release date has been indicated at the foot of each slide, next to the data source. These dates are indicative however, since the institutions may publish the data with a delay.
Data lag: Data availability varies according to the data source, at times with a lag of a couple of months.
e.g. Retail Trade Sales for July 2015 were released with a two-month lag in September 2015
GDP figures for Q2/2015 were released two months after Q2 (i.e. in August 2015)
Readers are reminded to bear this data lag in mind when looking for parallels between indicators. It might therefore be necessary to go back to previous months’ reports in order to correctly analyse indicators over the same reporting periods.

3. SA Economic Indicators
Index
Economic Growth (GDP) ..………….…………………………………………………………………………… 4
Merchandise Exports/Imports ..………….……………………………………………………………………… 6
Exchange Rate ..………….………………………………………………………………………………….…… 9
Input Prices ..………….………………………………………………………………………………….……….. 12
Inflation ..………….……………………………………………………………………………………….….…… 22
Interest Rates ..………….………………………………………………………………………………..….…… 27
Employment ..………….…………………………………………………………………………………….……. 29
Household Debt………….………….………………………………….…………………………………………. 31
Consumer Confidence ..………….………………………………………………………………………………. 33
Retail Sales ..………….……………………………………………………………………………………..……. 35

4. SA Economic Indicators
Employment Rates
Employment remains relatively flat
NOTES: 1. Not Economically Active means students, home-makers, the sick or disabled, those too old or young to work and discouraged work seekers (those who are involuntarily unemployed)
2. Labour Force is those either in work or actively seeking paid employment and available to start work
SOURCE: StatsSA | Frequency: Quarterly | Release date: Q1 – May, Q2 – August; Q3 – October, Q4 – February

5. SA Economic Indicators
Employment
COMMENTARY
Unemployment decreased in Q4/2015 to 24.5% (from 25.5% Q3/2015), the lowest rate in 2015
The expanded definition of unemployment decreased to 33.8% in Q4/2015 (34.4% Q3/2015)
An estimated 5.19 million are looking for work, while as many as 8.19 million people (expanded def.) are unemployed
From 2008 – 2015, the expanded rate has been higher than the official unemployment rate
This indicates growing discouragement among people looking for work
Between Q3/2015 and Q4/2015:
Labour force decreased by 36,000
Employment increased 190,000
Unemployment decreased 225,000
Not economically active increased 194,000, of which discouraged job-seekers increased 52,000
Employment in the formal sector has increased for three consecutive quarters, while the informal sector has reported its first decline in seven quarters
Jobs were created in the formal sector in finance and other business services, trade and community & social services
Job losses were recorded in the formal sector in the manufacturing, utilities and construction
Job losses were recorded in the informal sector in the construction, manufacturing and community & social services industries
Note: Unemployment: Aged 15 – 64 without work and actively seeking. Expanded definition: includes all those who desire employment regardless of whether they are actively seeking it.

6. Maryla Masojada. |. Head Analyst Tarryn Butler. |
Maryla Masojada | Head Analyst Tarryn Butler | Senior Retail Analyst Tabang Mbenge | Junior Retail Analyst