1. CH12: Estimating Extinction Risk
from Climate Change

2. FIGURE 12.1 Cover of the January 8, 2004 issue of Nature.
The Thomas et al. (2004) research (see Spotlight, previous page) appeared in this issue. Source: Reprinted by permission from Macmillan Publishers Ltd.

3. FIGURE 12.2 Front-page headlines in Europe accompanied the Nature paper, including this full-page color front page in The Guardian (United Kingdom).
Source: Copyright Guardian News & Media Ltd., 2004.

4. FIGURE 12.3 Headlines in the United States.
Note that some headlines (e.g., Washington Post in this sample) misrepresented the timeline of the estimated extinctions (the method used could not discriminate time of extinction; 2050 was the year of the emissions scenario used).

5. FIGURE 12.4 Global distribution of climate change-sensitive bird species.
The proportions of restricted-range endemic birds with elevational ranges of less than 1000 m are shown by region. Elevation range is indicative of temperature niche breadth, one of the most important predictors of sensitivity to extinction due to climate change. The inset shows the proportion of global land area in biodiversity hot spots (left chart, in red) and the number of climate change-sensitive bird species in global biodiversity hot spots (right chart, in red).

6. FIGURE 12.5 Graffiti in a Washington, DC, Metro stop, 2004.
Release of extinction risk estimates corresponded with an increase in interest in climate change in the United States—a trend that would spike with the release of the film An Inconvenient Truth. Source: Photo courtesy Steven Schneider.

7. FIGURE 12.6 Extinction risk.
The first estimates of the extinction risk from climate change and subsequent research inspired art from political cartoons to technical report covers. This 2009 image appeared on the cover of a report on Central American biodiversity and climate change prepared by The Water Center for the Humid Tropics of Central America and the Caribbean (CATHALAC). Source: Image courtesy Luis Melillo, copyright CATHALAC.

8. Velocity of climate change trajectory classes in both terrestrial (above) and marine (below)realms. Trajectory classes have been used to characterize the type of species range shifts dominant in an area. Sources (blue) sinks (red), areas of slow shifts (green) and convergence (yellow) are indicated.

9. Relative importance of predictors of species’ sensitivity to extinction risk from climate change. The top six predictors dominate, including niche breadth (see Fig. 12.4).