1. Grant D. Forsyth, Ph.D. Chief Economist Grant.Forsyth@avistacorp.com
Spokane ISM
January 8, 2019
2019 Economic Forecast
Grant D. Forsyth, Ph.D.
Chief Economist

2. U.S. Population: “From Pyramid to Pillar”
Source: U.S. Census

3. U.S. GDP Growth,

4. Weak growth offset by expansion’s length.
Spokane+Kootenai Economic Growth and U.S. Expansions: The Slow Decay of Time
Weak growth offset by expansion’s length.
Source: BEA and author’s calculations

5. Non-Farm Employment, 2007-2018: Remember to Hug a Central Banker
May 2015
No growth from
Dec 2009 – May 2012
(2 ½ Years)
Source: BLS, WA ESD, and author’s calculations

6. Non-Farm Employment Growth, 2016-2018: Hiring that Special Someone is not Easy
2018 UR
5.0%
2018 UR
3.1%
2018 UR
5.5%
2018 UR
3.9%
Source: BLS, WA ESD, and author’s calculations

7. Private Sector Weekly Work Hours, 2007-2018: Above the U.S. Average
Source: BLS and author’s calculations

8. Regional Leading Indicator 2017-2018: Adding Jobs at a Slower Rate in 2019
Other Factors:
Amazon
Waning tax stimulus
China trade war
Source: Various and author’s calculations

9. Spokane+Kootenai Population Growth, 1971-2018: The Ebb and Flow of the Masses
Source: BEA, U.S. Census, and author’s calculations

10. Spokane vs. Kootenai Population Growth, 1971-2018: Kootenai’s Transformation
Metro Area
Avg. Annual Growth,
Kootenai
3.2%
Spokane
1.3%
36K
164K
324K
576K
Source: BEA, U.S. Census, and author’s calculations

11. Regional Cost of Living Difference, 2016: We’re Still a Relatively Cheap Date
Source: BEA and author’s calculations

12. Existing Home Price Growth, 2015-2018: Still Cooking
Source: FHFA and author’s calculations

13. U.S. Household Debt Growth, 2007-2018: Text Books and Climbing Walls Don’t Come Cheap
+152%
+50%
Source: Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, and author’s calculations

14. Spokane Taxable Sales Growth, 2013-2018: From Vehicles to Construction
Source: WA DOR and author’s calculations

15. WA State Gross Receipts Growth and the Great Recession: Our Memory is Short
Source: WA DOR and author’s calculations

16. Takeaways for 2019
Slowing employment growth but with continued tight labor markets.
Continued robust population growth through in-migration—for good or ill.
Relative cost-of-living remains low, but some deterioration because of housing prices.
Beware of revenue collections driven by cyclical components.
Trade war BAD…Grant no like.