1. Planning workshop for the Climate and Development learning platform Current issues in climate development
Climate resilience and poverty reduction
Radical adaptation, loss and damage
Assessing the effectiveness of climate and development investments (including the Green Economy)

2. Poverty eradication - the scale of the task
2 Peter Edward's ethical poverty line article
Composition of Poorest World Decile
Source - David Woodward incrementum-ad-absurdum-global-growth-inequality-and-poverty-eradication-in-a-carbon-constrained-world

3. Climate resilience and poverty reduction – observed impacts
UN Development Programme Human Development Report 2007/2008. Fighting climate change: human solidarity in a divided world. UNDP, New York

4. Findings of the IPCC AR5
Throughout the 21st century, climate-change impacts are projected to slow down economic growth, make poverty reduction more difficult, further erode food security, and prolong existing and create new poverty traps, the latter particularly in urban areas and emerging hotspots of hunger (medium confidence).
Climate-change impacts are expected to exacerbate poverty in most developing countries and create new poverty pockets in countries with increasing inequality, in both developed and developing countries.
In urban and rural areas, wage-labor-dependent poor households that are net buyers of food are expected to be particularly affected due to food price increases, including in regions with high food insecurity and high inequality (particularly in Africa), although the agricultural self-employed could benefit.
Insurance programs, social protection measures, and disaster risk management may enhance long-term livelihood resilience among poor and marginalized people, if policies address poverty and multidimensional inequalities.

5. IPCC AR5 Key risks to Africa

6. Climate adaptation deficits & gaps
Without CC impacts
With effective adaptation
Adaptation gap
Development and poverty reduction
Without adaptation
Adaptation deficit
Development outcomes with CC impacts
Time
Now
Then

7. Climate resilience and poverty reduction – challenges to securities

8. National development planning decisions require evaluative evidence
Economic development budget
and/ or ???
Development sectors
Responses to climate change
and/ or ???
and/ or ???
Mitigation & green economy
Climate resilience & adaptation
Poverty reduction strategies

9. Eradicating poverty is entirely compatible with closing the adaptation gap
MDG summit 2010 identified priority instruments for accelerating progress on the MDGs. These are entirely compatible with what is required for closing adaptation gaps:
Country-driven, evidence-based planning that couples local priorities to national support
Policy programmes that are accountable and responsive to local needs and populations
Inclusive development processes that overcome gender based and other marginalisation
Local capabilities to reach up and draw down resources, technologies, information and services — these are important to remove development constraints and increase adaptation options
Social protection that mitigates climate-induced and other poverty tipping points, which may include climate-resilient public services, safety nets and social transfers.
Greeling, M Accelerating Progress on the MDGs: Country Priorities for Improving Performance. Paper prepared for the UN
Development Group MDG Task Force.

10. Climate resilience and poverty reduction – key messages
More variable climates are making it harder for the poor to climb out and stay out of poverty.
Stronger evidence is required on how climate makes poverty harder to eradicate.
For development to be climate resilient, policy instruments to reduce poverty and enable adaptation must be integrated, and designed in ways that includes the climate-vulnerable poor.
Identifying how mitigation strategies can also reduce poverty and support adaptation is an important part of climate resilient development.

11. Radical adaptation and loss and damage

12. Assessing the effectiveness of climate and development investments (including the Green Economy)
“Tracking Adaptation and Measuring Development”
Climate risk management
Development performance
Institutions, policies, capacities
Well being, vulnerability, resilience, securities
Government
Officials
Development
Agencies
Local
Governments
District
Councils
Assess the effectiveness of different climate adaptation investments
Strengthen Climate Risk Management and Adaptation Investments.
Understand how climate affects development
Assess the resilience co-benefits from Green Economy and low carbon development measures
TAMD…
Provides a tool for mainstreaming climate change into development.
Promotes thinking about long- term outcomes and impacts, not just outputs
Flexible, iterative and customized to context.
Global
National
Regional
Aggregation
Measurement
Tracking adaptation and measuring development webpage:

13. Climate risk management Development performance
A Simplified Diagram of TAMD
Institutions, policies, capacities
Assess Attribution or Contribution of a given adaptation intervention, portfolio of interventions or climate risk management to reduced vulnerability and development using evidence based indicators established based on a theory of change and objectives of stakeholders
Global
National
Regional
Local
Climate risk management
Aggregation
Measurement
Development performance
Well being, vulnerability, resilience, securities
TAMD Provides a tool for mainstreaming climate change into development. And it promotes thinking about long-term outcomes and impacts, not just outputs and is flexible, iterative and customized to context

14. Effectiveness of targeting the climate vulnerable poor;
IIED Climate Change Group
Tracking Adaptation and Measuring Development
TAMD Framework – 2 tracks and attribution
Examine:
Effectiveness of targeting the climate vulnerable poor;
Based on theories of change and an understanding the objectives of different stakeholders, etc.
A set of indicators that examine the performance of Climate Risk Management functions including adaptation delivery
Indicators using vulnerability as proxy for developmental outcomes plus normal development parameters – emphasis on using what’s available.
TAMD is a “twin-track” framework that seeks to evaluate the extent and quality of climate risk management (CRM) processes and actions on the one hand (Track 1), and development and adaptation outcomes “on the ground” on the other (Track 2). TAMD is intended to be a flexible framework for evaluating adaptation and adaptation-relevant development interventions in diverse situations. It can be adapted according to the adaptation context. The two tracks are illustrated graphically on this slide.
Tracks 1 and 2 of the TAMD framework encompass a wide variety of interventions, processes, outputs, outcomes and impacts. Links between outputs, outcomes and impacts may exist within and between the tracks (Figure 2). For example, evaluation might seek to address the influence of outputs from CRM interventions at the national level (upper part of Track 1) on vulnerability outcomes and impacts at the local level (lower part of Track 2), or on CRM practices at the regional or local level (middle and lower parts of Track 1).
Interventions at the local level might also influence regional and national level CRM processes, for example through the generation of information and insights that inform national-level adaptation and development policies. Local-level interventions that are not directly related to CRM might nevertheless reduce vulnerability, for example by reducing poverty, improving educational outcomes, enhancing mobility and access to markets, increasing livelihood diversity and so on. Interventions with such “serendipitous” or indirect adaptation benefits might be associated with outputs, outcomes and impacts all located in the lower part of Track 2.

15. Adaptations, actions & interventions
IIED Climate Change Group
Tracking Adaptation and Measuring Development
A More Detailed Look at the 12 steps to evaluating an adaptation intervention 1 2 3 4
Define Evaluation Context
Develop Theory of Change
Define Pathways
Identify & Define Indicators
Inputs, Outputs, Outcomes 8 7 6 5
Analysis
Data Gathering
Methodology Definition
Normalization & contextualization
for data gathering and analysis 9 10 11 12
Attribution & Contribution
Comparability
Lessons learned
Iterative learning ✓ ✗ ✓
Adaptations, actions & interventions

16. Experience in applying TAMD: Status of initiatives Pakistan
GoP wants to know how development investments contribute to adaptation. Developing framework through application to 2 large-scale interventions across 4 provinces
Ethiopia
Integrate into national initiatives e.g. Promoting Autonomous Adaptation, Adaptation Registry, and Phase II of Sustainable Land Mgt Programme.
Nepal
GoN interested in how to assess effectiveness and linkages of 3 large-scale investments – LFP, NCCSP & LGCDP II. Testing PPCR and other indicators.
Kenya
Implementing part of KCCAP MRV+ - assessing CC adaptation at County levels.
Cambodia
Supporting the design and testing of the M&E components of national CC strategy
Tanzania, Zanzibar
Proposal to integrate into CC Strategy implementation in support and assessment of local adaptation.
Mozambique
Contributing to design and testing of national M&E strategy for CC adaptation.
RSA
Discussions on how to strengthen M&E of CC White Paper flagship projects.

17. What questions can we ask with TAMD?
All questions include poverty level and gender differentiation
Effectiveness of climate risk management in keeping development on track ?
Development tipping points and radical adaptation responses ?
The added value of specific adaptation measures ?
Capability for climate risk management
How addressing development deficits enables climate adaptation ?
Development with climate adaptation
Development without climate adaptation
Time – escalating climate change effects