1. Experimental Probability
11-2
Experimental Probability
Course 2
Warm Up
Problem of the Day
Lesson Presentation

2. Experimental Probability
Course 2
11-2
Experimental Probability
Warm Up
1. A jar contains 6 red, 8 blue, and 10 white marbles. Would you be more likely to pull out a red or a blue marble?
Determine if the event is impossible, unlikely, as likely as not, likely, or certain.
2. Attendance at a city council meeting is at 100%.
Mr. Lloyd is a council member. How likely is it that Mr. Lloyd is at the meeting?
blue
certain

3. Experimental Probability
Course 2
11-2
Experimental Probability
Problem of the Day
The probability of Liana making a free
throw was 2 3
. If she made 24 of her free
throws, how many did she miss? 12

4. Experimental Probability
Course 2
11-2
Experimental Probability
Learn to find experimental probability.

5. Insert Lesson Title Here
Course 2
11-2
Experimental Probability
Insert Lesson Title Here
Vocabulary
experimental probability

6. Experimental Probability
Course 2
11-2
Experimental Probability
Experimental probability is one way of estimating the probability of an event. The experimental probability of the event is found by comparing the number of times an event occurs to the total number of trials. The more trials you have, the more accurate the estimate is likely to be.

7. EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY
Course 2
11-2
Experimental Probability
EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY
number of times an event occurs
probability 
total number of trials

8. Experimental Probability
Course 2
11-2
Experimental Probability
Additional Example 1: Sports Application
During skating practice, Sasha landed 7 out of 12 jumps. What is the experimental probability that she will land her next jump?
P(event) 
number of times an event occurs
total number of trials
number of jumps landed
number of jumps attempted
P(jumps landed)  7 12 =
Substitute data from the experiment.
The experimental probability that Sasha will land her
next jump is . 7 12

9. Experimental Probability
Course 2
11-2
Experimental Probability
“P(event)” represents the probability that an event will occur. For example, the probability of a flipped coin landing heads up could be written as “P(heads).”
Writing Math

10. Experimental Probability Insert Lesson Title Here
Course 2
11-2
Experimental Probability
Insert Lesson Title Here
Check It Out: Example 1
During basketball practice, Martha made 9 out of 10 free throws. What is the experimental probability that she will make her next attempt?
P(event) 
number of times an event occurs
total number of trials
P(free throws made) 
number of free throws made
number of free throws attempted 9 10
= = 90%
Substitute data from the experiment and write as a percent.
The experimental probability that Martha will make the
next free throw is or 90%. 9 10

11. Additional Example 2A: Application
Course 2
11-2
Experimental Probability
Additional Example 2A: Application
Students have checked out 55 books from the library. Of these, 32 books are fiction.
What is the experimental probability that the next book checked out will be fiction?
number of fiction books checked out
total number of books checked out
P(fiction)  32 55 
Substitute data.
The experimental probability that the next book checked out will be fiction is approximately 32 55 .

12. Additional Example 2B: Application
Course 2
11-2
Experimental Probability
Additional Example 2B: Application
What is the experimental probability that
the next book checked out will be nonfiction?
number of nonfiction books checked out
total number of books checked out
P(nonfiction)  23 55 
Substitute data.
The experimental probability that the next book checked
out will be nonfiction is approximately 23 55 .

13. Experimental Probability Insert Lesson Title Here
Course 2
11-2
Experimental Probability
Insert Lesson Title Here
Check It Out: Example 2A
Students have a fruit choice for lunch of an apple or a pear. So far 18 of 47 students have selected pears.
What is the experimental probability that the next fruit selected will be a pear?
P(pear) 
number of pears selected
total number of fruit selected 18 47 
Substitute data.
The experimental probability that the next fruit selected will be a pear is approximately 18 47 .

14. Insert Lesson Title Here
Course 2
11-2
Experimental Probability
Insert Lesson Title Here
Check It Out: Example 2B
What is the experimental probability that
next fruit selected will be an apple?
P(apple) 
number of apples selected
total number of fruit selected 29 47 
Substitute data.
The experimental probability that the next fruit selected will be an apple is approximately 29 47 .

15. Experimental Probability Insert Lesson Title Here
Course 2
11-2
Experimental Probability
Insert Lesson Title Here
Lesson Quiz
1. In a soccer shoot-out, Bryan made 4 out of 9 goals. What is the experimental probability that
he will make the next shot?
2. It has rained on the last 2 out of 10 Fourth of July parades in Swanton.
A. What is the experimental probability that it
will rain this year on July 4?
B. What is the experimental probability that it
will not rain this year? 4 9 1 5 4 5