1. DISKCON Asia-Pacific March 2009
The “Netbook” and the Future of PC Storage
DISKCON Asia-Pacific March 2009

2. Topics The netbook is a catalyst for dramatic change
Law of Unintended Consequences
Local storage in PCs will continue to favor HDDs for many years

3. Mobile PCs Take Over Units in Millions
Big upturn began to happen as wireless and the centrino appeared in

4. Multi-Function Mobile Phone
Mobile Segmentation
$1500
Slim NBPC
Mobility NBPC
Big Name UMPC
Standard NBPC (Store)
Multi-Function Mobile Phone
Price
$1000
Standard NBPC (Web)
Why did the netbook appear? Several reasons.
$500
Smart Phone
Netbook
Low Cost Mobile Phone
3.5” 7”
10.5”
14”
Display Size

5. Rapid Evolution 2007 7.0” Display Intel Atom Linux SSD: 4/8GB
~0.8” Thick
2008
8.9” Display
Intel Atom
Windows XP SE
HDD: 80/160GB
~1.10” Thick
2009
10.1” Display
Intel Atom
Windows XP SE
HDD: GB
~1.3” Thick
2010*
~11.0” Display
Intel Atom Dual-Core
Windows 7 SE
HDD: 250GB
~1.0” Thick
Started as Linux based, with virtually no storage – a mobile dumb terminal
*Projected

6. Notebook Market, Pre-Netbook
300
$1,500
Units
250
$1,200
200
$900
150
$600
100
Notebook ASPs above $1000 level until netbook appear in 2008.
$300 50 $0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Notebook Units
Netbook Units
ASP

7. …….. And Post-Netbook Units 300 $1,500 250 $1,200 200 $900 150 $600
100
Notebook ASPs above $1000 level until netbook appear in 2008.
$300 50 $0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Notebook Units
Netbook Units
ASP

8. Mobile Phones vs. Netbooks
Presently, these serve different markets and do not compete
However, trends in iPhone, HTC, and Samsung phones push functionality, screen usability
Size differences will keep phones, PCs adjacent rather than overlapping for at least 2-3 years
Nokia looking at a mobile PC entry, which fits into the monthly service model
The “service” model for netbooks
Until iPhones, “smartest” phone were Blackberry, Treos.

9. Effects on PC Industry Future of PCs still bright
1B installed base, but only 10% of global populace has a PC
Next PC upgrade cycle at least 1 year away
Pent-up demand – last upgrade cycle was in
Replacement cycles often triggered by events or technologies: Windows 7, new processors, economic recovery
Pricing reset will favor lower priced units
Cannibalization or different PC segmentation?
BRICs still an untapped market

10. Law of Unintended Consequences
Netbook was not intended to be full function PC
It was a value play, with enough mobile compute power, but it……
is teaming with economic turmoil to reshape PC pricing
is radically shifting the PC landscape and threatening market leaders
is forcing HDD industry consolidation
is pressuring Microsoft, Intel, who are trying to manage the netbook phenomenon
is making a “service model” possible
Netbook was not intended to be full function NB, BUT better performance makes it ALMOST as good.

11. HDD or SSD? HDD is the winner so far SSD’s best shots are
But not all great – prices are low and falling, and dragging other capacities down as well
Thin 2.5” or 1.8”?
SSD’s best shots are
Commercial (20% to 45% of mobile compute market, depending on how you view the segment)
Low end, low capacity
Form-factor will fade from SSDs so prices will fall
SSD still suffers from a price/performance gap
NAND prices went up 27% in February!
Right now 2.5” is the clear winner.

12. 2.5” Mobile Shipments 100% 250 80% 200 60% 150 Gigabytes 40% 100 20%
2005
2006
2007
2008
<=80 GB GB GB GB GB GB GB GB
Avg. Capacity

13. The <$40 Storage Budget
Best option is a mature HDD product
HDD companies may need to use dual technologies
Old technology for netbooks
New technologies for traditional markets
Upward negative cascade on pricing is possible
Consortium approach to support future netbook HDD design?
How will netbooks change/hurt/delay HDD technology transitions? Cannot support new technology with $35 budget

14. HDD vs. SSD at <$40 Budget
1000
Gigabytes
100 10
First target for storage was around $40. Trying for $30 target. 1
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
HDD
SSD

15. Conclusions Today’s netbook will evolve, but its effects are forever
Overshooting performance needs in tough economy results in being “netbooked”
Economic effects of netbooks on other mobile PCs – LOWER PRICES – favor HDDs for years to come
SSD to carve out some small portion, and the game is not yet over
Newer netbooks perform like traditional notebooks. Most people cannot tell performance difference

16. Thank you. Questions. Please contact Mark Geenen mark@trendfocus
Thank you! Questions? Please contact Mark Geenen John Kim John Chen Jason Lervold