1. Image courtesy of NASA/GSFC

2. Climate Change in the Heartland
Eugene S. Takle
Director, Climate Science Initiative
Professor of Atmospheric Science
Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences
Professor of Agricultural Meteorology
Department of Agronomy
Iowa State University
Ames, Iowa 50011
Heartland Regional Roundtable
Nutrient Management for Water Protection
in Highly Productive Systems of the Heartland 
Lied Center, Nebraska City
January 27-28, 2010

3. Outline Observed global changes in carbon dioxide and temperature
Projected future changes in global and US temperatures and precipitation
Future climate change for Iowa and the US Midwest

4. Karl, T. R. , J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

6. Global Carbon Emissions (Gt)
Actual emissions are exceeding worst case scenarios projected in 1990

7. Forcing Factors in the Global Climate
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

8. Increased Greenhouse Gases => Global Heating
Increasing greenhouse gases increases heating of the Earth
Increased Greenhouse Gases => Global Heating

9. Warming of the Lower and Upper Atmosphere Produced by Natural and Human Causes
Note that greenhouse gases have a unique temperature signature, with strong warming in the upper troposphere, cooling in the lower stratosphere and strong warming over the North Pole. No other warming factors have this signature.
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

10. Global Mean Surface Temperature

11. Global Mean Surface TemperatureI II
III IV

13. More environmentally friendly
Energy intensive
Balanced fuel sources
More environmentally friendly
If current emission trends continue, global temperature rise will exceed worst case scenarios projected in 2007
FI =fossil intensive
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

14. IPCC 2007

15. IPCC 2007

16. Karl, T. R. , J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

17. IPCC 2007

18. IPCC 2007

19. Karl, T. R. , J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

20. Karl, T. R. , J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

21. “One of the clearest trends in the United States observational record is an increasing frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events… Over the last century there was a 50% increase in the frequency of days with precipitation over mm (four inches) in the upper midwestern U.S.; this trend is statistically significant “
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

22. Trend of increase in occurrence of heavy precipitation over the 20th C is consistent with increasing GHG concentrations.
Frequency of intense precipitation events is likely to increase in the future.
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

23. Karl, T. R. , J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

24. The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions
Necessary
Adaptation
Necessary
Adaptation
Possible
Mitigation
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

25. The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions
Necessary
Adaptation
Necessary
Adaptation
Possible
Mitigation
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

26. Arctic Sea-Ice Decline

27. Decline in Greenland Ice Mass
Equivalent to about 5 ft of ice over the state of Iowa each year

28. Karl, T. R. , J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

29. Insured Losses from Weather-Related Catastrophes
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

30. Temperature rises in regions having thunderstorms likely to experience increased occurrence of lightning
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

31. Karl, T. R. , J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

32. Findings of the US National Assessment
Global warming is unequivocal and primarily human-induced
Climate changes are underway in the United States and are projected to grow
Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring now and are expected to increase
Climate change will stress water resources
Crop and livestock production will be increasingly challenged
Coastal areas are at increasing risk from sea-level rise and storm surge
Risks to human health will increase
Climate change will interact with many social and environmental stresses
Thresholds will be crossed, leading to large changes in climate and ecosystems
Future climate change and its impacts depend on choices made today

33. Observed Summer (JJA) Daily Maximum Temperature
Changes (K),
Adapted from Folland et al. [2001]

34. Des Moines Airport Data
1983: 13
1988: 10
2009: 0

35. 6 days ≥ 100oF in the last 20 years
Des Moines Airport Data
1983: 13
1988: 10
6 days ≥ 100oF in the last 20 years
2009: 0

36. State-Wide Average Data

38. Cedar Rapids Data

39. Cedar Rapids Data

40. Cooling Decade in a Century of Warming
Probability of a cooling decade in a century of warming
Probability distribution functions for decadal trends (kelvin/year) in globally averaged surface air temperature
Easterling, D. R., and M. F. Wehner, 2009: Is the climate warming or cooling? Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L08706, doi: /2009GL037810, 2009

41. D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet

42. State-Wide Average Data

43. Des Moines Airport Data
2010
2009

44. Des Moines Airport Data
Average : 3.2 days/yr
2010
2009

45. Des Moines Airport Data
Caution: Not adjusted for possible urban influence
Average : 3.2 days/yr
2010
2009

46. Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest Temperature
Longer frost-free period (high)
Higher average winter temperatures (high)
Fewer extreme cold temperatures in winter (high)
Fewer extreme high temperatures in summer in short term but more in long term (medium)
Higher nighttime temperatures both summer and winter (high)
More freeze-thaw cycles (high)
Increased temperature variability (high)
Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models
No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but model inconclusive
*Estimated from IPCC reports

47. Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest Precipitation
More (~10%) precipitation annually (medium)
Change in “seasonality”: Most of the increase will come in the first half of the year (wetter springs, drier summers) (high)
More water-logging of soils (medium)
More variability of summer precipitation (high)
More intense rain events and hence more runoff (high)
Higher episodic streamflow (medium)
Longer periods without rain (medium)
Higher absolute humidity (high)
Stronger storm systems (medium)
More winter soil moisture recharge (medium)
Snowfall increases (late winter) in short term but decreases in the long run (medium)
Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models
No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but model inconclusive
*Estimated from IPCC reports

48. Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest Other
Reduced wind speeds (high)
Reduced solar radiation (medium)
Increased tropospheric ozone (high)
Accelerated loss of soil carbon (high)
Phenological stages are shortened (high)
Weeds grow more rapidly under elevated atmospheric CO2 (high)
Weeds migrate northward and are less sensitive to herbicides (high)
Plants have increased water used efficiency (high)
Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models
No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but model inconclusive
*Estimated from IPCC and CCSP reports

49. Successful Farming Jan 2010
Dan Looker

50. For More Information Or just Google Eugene Takle Contact me directly:
Current research on regional climate and climate change is being conducted at Iowa State University under the Regional Climate Modeling Laboratory
North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program
For current activities on the ISU campus, regionally and nationally relating to climate change see the Climate Science Initiative website:
Or just Google Eugene Takle