1. Climate Execution Focus Area: Weather & Climate Extremes
Tom Karl
Director, National Climatic Data Center
July 30-31, 2012
Washington D.C.
July 30-31, 2012 – Climate Working Group Meeting

2. Outline Scope of the challenge Goal and outcomes
Accomplishments to date
Moving forward: NOAA’s multi-line approach
Key scientific and technical issues
Questions and issues for input from the CWG
06/06/2012

3. Weather and Climate Extremes Scope of the Challenge
Disasters
Rising Demand for Information
Changes in weather and climate extremes have profound impacts
Compelling scientific evidence shows that the nature of extreme events is altered by climate variations and change.
Decision makers are demanding improved information on how changes in climate may influence future extremes
Tornadoes
Wildfires
Floods
Droughts
Heat waves
Snowstorms/ Blizzards
Geophysical
Hurricanes & Tropical Storms
July 30-31, 2012 – Climate Working Group Meeting

4. Weather and Climate Extremes Overview: Goal and Outcome
Provide the best available information to help the public, resource managers, and policy makers anticipate, prepare for, and adapt to changes in weather and climate extremes and their impacts.
Overall Outcome
Development and delivery of information to prepare for and adapt to changes in weather and climate extremes—including changes in frequency, intensity, seasonality, and geographical distribution—on an ongoing basis.
Last Updated: 5/8/2012

5. Multi-Line Execution Model: Weather and Climate Extremes
AA Climate Goal Board
(Chaired by Goal Champion)
Interim Executive Working Group members
Director, National Climatic Data Center (NESDIS)
Director, Climate Program Office (OAR)
Director, Climate Prediction Center (NWS)
Director, Physical Science Division (OAR)
Director, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (OAR)
Director, Storm Prediction Center (NWS)
Director, Climate, Weather and Water Services (NWS)
Advisors
Internal and external advisors invited as needed
Executive Working Group
Project Lead
NESDIS: LO Sponsor for Interim Project Lead
Last Updated: 7/19/2012

6. Relevant Background: Weather and Climate Extremes
OMB/OSTP FY14 Priorities Memo focus on:
Extremes thresholds & tipping points
Detection and attribution
Understanding human/natural interactions
Prediction/projection
Adaptation
National Academies and Private Sector collaboration on the North American Risk Model
OMB Priorities Memo text: “Particular emphasis should be given to research that advances understanding of vulnerabilities in human and biogeophysical systems and their relationships to climate extremes, thresholds, and tipping points.”
06/06/2012

7. Key Accomplishments: Data and Information Products
Delivery of data and information products, such as:
U.S. Hazards outlooks for temperature, precipitation, wind, soil, and wildfire based on extended range and seasonal forecasts.
Hurricane seasonal outlooks and experimental projections of changes in tropical cyclone intensity and frequency
Billion dollar disasters and the U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which quantifies observed changes and tendencies in climate extremes within the contiguous United States
Potential maximum precipitation climatologies used for state and municipality water run-off design standards
Annual delivery of the State of the Climate report for BAMS
Series of BAMS papers on extremes (75 plus experts)
July 30-31, 2012 – Climate Working Group Meeting

8. Status of Present Knowledge: Economic Impacts
U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters: 1980 – 2011
Hurricanes and Tropical Storms
Drought and Heat Wave
Flooding
Severe Local Storms and Tornadoes
Winter Storm and
Crop Freezes
Wildfires

9. Key Accomplishments: Advancing Attribution Science
Explaining Extreme Events of from a Climate Perspective
Event
Human Influence?
Thailand Floods No
East Africa Droughts
Yes
Texas Heat Wave/Drought
European Temperatures
Central England Warm Nov, Cold Dec
UK Cold Winter
©iStockPhoto.com/phototrav
Thailand Floods

10. Status of Present Knowledge: Identifying Science Challenges
Monitoring and Understanding Changes in Extreme Storm Statistics: State of Knowledge - Kunkel, K.E. et al. (23 others). (BAMS, in press).
Monitoring and Understanding Changes in Heat Waves, Cold Waves, Floods and Droughts in the United States: State of Knowledge - Peterson, T.C. et al. (27 others). Submitted (BAMS).
Monitoring and Understanding Changes in Extreme Winds, Waves, and Extratropical Storms along the Coasts: State of Knowledge - Vose, R.S. et al. (25 others) Submitted (BAMS).

11. Status of Present Knowledge: Communicating Products
What was the impact of the extreme event?
What was the cause of the extreme event?
What information is needed for preparedness?
Will these events be more frequent or stronger?
ATMOSPHERE/OCEAN SCIENTISTS
Timescales not necessarily relevant. Cacophony of timescales
Not necessarily responsive to specific event
Focus: Understanding a potential class of extreme events (hurricanes, drought, etc.)
ATTRIBUTION SCIENTISTS
Focus: Related to the attribution of changes in the intensity and frequency of extreme events
(Time)
Does not address the cause
Work on their timescales
(Time)
Papers Published
Papers Published
DETECTION SCIENTISTS
SCIENTIFIC ASSESSMENTS SCIENTISTS
Focus: Detection of changes in frequency and intensity of extreme events
Focus: Assessment of all extreme events
Responsive to a portion of the issue
(Time)
Without context: uncertainty  credibility 
(Time)
Papers Published
Papers Published
IMPACT SCIENTISTS
Climate Modeling Scientists
Focus: Evaluating the economic, social & biological impacts of extreme events
Focus: Predictions & Projections
Make scale with 5 paper
(Time)
(Time)
Papers Published
Forecasts & Projections

12. For Discussion with the SAB Climate Working Group
How best to prioritize scientific challenges going forward??
Detection:
How are extremes changing?
Physical Science Basis:
Why are extremes changing?
Predictions & Projections:
What extremes can we expect in the future?
Interpret/Communicate:
What are the impacts of changes in extremes?
Outcome: Development and delivery of information to prepare for and adapt to weather and climate extremes
Existing Points of Engagement with Users
- NIDIS, RCSDs, RISAs, CSC, CSD, CPC, Weather Forecast Offices, Etc…
Climate observations/models critical.
Communication and user engagement are involved in each area.
Last Updated: 5/8/2012

13. Key Issues for Discussion
Does the CWG have input on what the key research/operational/communication challenges are for the future of weather and climate extremes in a changing climate?
How best can the CWG help with priorities for:
Detection --- Feedback to observing and data management
Attribution --- Event & comprehensive analysis; Timeliness
Prediction/Projection ---Varying time scales and skills
Impacts --- Economic; Ecosystem services; Human
Communications --- Messaging; Tools; Uncertainty
06/06/2012