1. Crop Market Outlook, Farm Income, Land Values, and the Farm Bill
Wyffels Post Harvest Meeting
Emmetsburg, Iowa
Nov. 20, 2013
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
86.4
88.2
91.9
97.2
95.3
Yield
(bu./acre)
164.7
152.8
147.2
123.4
160.4
Production
(mil. bu.)
13,092
12,447
12,360
10,780
13,989
Beg. Stocks
1,673
1,708
1,128
989
824
Imports 8 28 29
162 25
Total Supply
14,774
14,182
13,517
11,932
14,837
Feed & Residual
5,125
4,795
4,557
4,333
5,200
Ethanol
4,591
5,019
5,000
4,648
4,900
Food, Seed, & Other
1,370
1,407
1,428
1,396
1,450
Exports
1,980
1,834
1,543
731
1,400
Total Use
13,066
13,055
12,528
11,108
12,950
Ending Stocks
1,887
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
3.55
5.18
6.22
6.89
4.50
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
77.5
77.4
75.0
77.2
76.5
Yield
(bu./acre)
44.0
43.5
41.9
39.8
43.0
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,359
3,329
3,094
3,034
3,258
Beg. Stocks
138
151
215
169
141
Imports 15 14 16 36
Total Supply
3,512
3,495
3,325
3,239
3,413
Crush
1,752
1,648
1,703
1,689
1,685
Seed & Residual
110
130 88 90
109
Exports
1,499
1,501
1,365
1,320
1,450
Total Use
3,361
3,280
3,155
3,098
3,243
Ending Stocks
170
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
9.59
11.30
12.50
14.40
12.15
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. Source: USDA-NASS

5. Projected Corn Yields Top: 2013 Projected Yield
Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

6. Early Reports on Corn Yields
Source: AgWeb.com

7. Projected Soybean Yields
Top: 2013 Projected Yield
Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

8. Early Reports on Soybean Yields
Source: AgWeb.com

9. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 9 9

10. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10

11. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 11 11

12. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

13. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

14. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

15. Soy Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

16. Corn Grind for Ethanol

17. Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

18. Current Corn Futures
4.36
4.23
4.07
Source: CME Group, 11/15/2013

19. Current Soybean Futures
12.14
10.92
10.75
Source: CME Group, 11/15/2013

20. Corn Prices vs. Costs
Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Expected Yield per Acre
Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs

21. Corn Prices vs. Costs
Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre
Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs

22. Soybean Prices vs. Costs
Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Expected Yield per Acre
Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs

23. Soybean Prices vs. Costs
Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre
Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs

24. Crop Acreage
Source: USDA-NASS

25. Crop Shifts
Source: USDA-NASS

26. Thoughts for 2014 and Beyond
Supply/demand concerns
Corn demand rebounding? Yes, so far, so good
Acreage allocation for 2014: Where do the extra corn acres go?
Markets favoring soybeans in the short term and corn longer term
2012/13
USDA
2013/14 USDA
2013/14
Futures
(11/15/13)
Corn
$6.89
$4.50
$4.07
Soybeans
$14.40
$12.15
$12.14

28. Iowa Land Values
Source: Mike Duffy, ISU

29. Iowa Land Values – Log Scale
Source: Mike Duffy, ISU

30. Land Values and Income
Source: Mike Duffy, ISU

31. Land Values and Income
Source: Mike Duffy, ISU

32. Farm Bill Titles Commodities IX. Energy
Conservation X. Hort. & Organic Ag.
Trade XI. Livestock
Nutrition XII. Crop Insurance
Credit XIII. Commodity Futures
Rural Development XIV. Miscellaneous
Research XV. Trade & Taxes
Forestry

33. Ideas on the Next Farm Bill
Let’s look at the common features from the House and Senate bills
Both versions of the farm bill eliminate direct payments, countercyclical payments, ACRE, and SURE
The marketing loan program would continue
Livestock disaster programs would be reestablished

34. Reference Prices Senate: 55% of 5-yr Olympic average MYA price
House: Set by law
Corn $3.70
Wheat $5.50
Soybean $8.40
Corn
$2.95
Wheat
$3.62
Soybean
$6.29

35. ARC or RLC instead of ACRE
Revenue-based support program
Revenues based on 5-year Olympic averages for yields and prices
Yields and prices have cups (T-yields and reference prices)

36. AMP or PLC instead of CCP
Price-based support program
Reference prices establish targets
Works like CCP
Payment rate = Max(0, Reference price – Max(MYA price, Loan rate))

37. Dairy Dairy Producer Margin Protection Program
Voluntary margin coverage, with the opportunity for supplemental coverage
Dairy Market Stabilization Program
Managed supplies when margins fall

38. SCO Examples from Last Year’s Bills
Source: Congressional Research Service

39. World Corn Markets
Source: USDA 39 39

40. Arable Land

41. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: