1. AREPS Probability of Detection Validation Project
LT Greg Ray
OC3570 – Summer 2005

2. Introduction The Problem
Use AREPS to accurately produce a Probability of Detection function for a given environment

3. Introduction Why is this important Nobody can do it yet
Current ability to detect ducts but not predict
Predicting ducts gives the war fighter an advantage

4. Data & Methods Where and how were data collected Shipboard Radiosondes
Vaisala RS80 & DigiCORA software
Shipboard Met Tower
Collect surface environmental data
Shore Radar AN/SPS-67
Short-range, two-dimensional, surface-search/navigation radar system

5. Ship’s SONDE Launches

6. Standard Atmosphere

7. AREPS - Standard ATM

8. AREPS – M Units (STD ATM)

9. AREPS Probability of Detection Standard ATM

10. AREPS Probability of Detection Standard ATM

11. Atmosphere from the Cruise

12. 7/

13. 7/

14. AREPS M-Units 7/

15. Comparison
DUCTS

16. Outbound Data

17. AREPS Probability of Detection 7/21 - 2200

18. 7/22 – 0000Z

19. Sounding #2

20. AREPS – M Units (7/ )

21. Inbound Data

22. AREPS Probability of Detection 7/22 - 0000

23. AREPS Procedures

24. Results AREPS & AN/SPS-67 Agree Significant for operational forces
POD Functions are very similar
Significant for operational forces
Can exploit environment
Have advantage over enemy
Future Work
More Validation
More Target Platforms/Radar Models

25. QUESTIONS?