1. Weather
Forecasting and
Solar Energy
Glenn E. Van Knowe Ph. D. P

2. Introduction Description of Facilities Introductions & Go Over Course
Location of restrooms etc.
Introductions & Go Over Course
Hand outs/PPTs Online at:
Mon AM Session 10:30 -11:45 AM
Lunch 11:45 – 12:30 PM
Mon PM Session 12:30 – 4:00 PM
Wed AM Session 10:30 -11:45 PM
Lunch 11:45 – 12:30 PM
Wed PM Session 12:30 – 3:00 PM

3. Unique Projects Involving Physical Science and Meteorology
Glenn E. Van Knowe Ph. D. P

4. Sonification Projects
Meteorology:
Solar:

5. Bob

7. Presidents Day Storm Feb 1979

8. Presidents Day Storm Feb 1979

13. History of Weather Forecasting
Glenn E. Van Knowe Ph. D. P

14. The Science of Meteorology
The study of the atmosphere and it's phenomena.

16. Forecasting Methods In the Past … Weather Proverbs
“Red sky in the morning, sailors’ take warning; red sky at night, sailors’ delight”
Folklore
Woolly Caterpillars, Ground Hog
Rules-of-Thumb
Wind at your back, low pressure to your left
Today …
Forecasts based on observations and sophisticated numerical weather models
Climatological
Rules of Thumb
Analog
Conceptual Models
Computer Model Output

17. Ref http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weather_forecasting

18. What do butterflies have to do with weather?

19. Periods in Weather History “Ancient Times”
Ancient Times - Before 400 BC - Mid 1400’s
Folklore and proverbs - Still With us Today -many wrong ideas
Philosophy - eventually a sub discipline became the Science of Meteorology
First discussed as a science by Aristotle, 340 B.C. wrote a book entitled Meteorologica - summarized meteorological knowledge to that date

20. Periods in Weather History Almanac Era
Almanac Era ’s-1850
17th-18th centuries - meteorology came into being with the advent of instrumentation such as thermometers and barometers
thermometer and barometer by Torricelli- 1643
Development of Weather Records Around world
Because of sea travel
Compiled Weather Records in Usable format - Ben Franklin

21. Periods in Weather History
Empirical Era
Improved Communications (Telegraph, telephone)
19th century - observations were being made routinely - transmitted by the telegraph
National and International Weather Organizations and Services Formed net work of observing sites
Insitu measurements
Specialized Weather Reporting
University of Wisconsin started broadcasting daily weather forecasts to farmers
Weather Bureau reports, forecasts and warnings transmitted by 140 radio stations in 39 states
Conceptual Framework of Moving “fronts” and “storms” (Weather Engineering)
1920's - Concept of airmasses and fronts was formulated in by Norwegian meteorologists
Theory for the evolution of mid-latitude cyclones - still used today
Theoretical framework based upon Laws of Physics (Modern Science of Meteorology)

22. Periods in Weather History Cont’d
Modern Era Current
1940’s Regular Upper Air Measurement Begins
Rawinsonde
Remote Sensing Begins - Radar, Hurricane and Satellite
1940’s after WWII -
Meteorological Radars were implemented
Hurricane “Hunter” Aircraft
1960's - first meteorological satellites were launched (Tiros I )
Satellite
Look at wx school and do experiments
1950's - first atmospheric computer models led to:
Improved Conceptual Models
Operational Weather Prediction Models
1990's - National Weather Service modernized
Radar, Satellite. Wind profiler, ASOS, Models

24. Hurricane Flight - Pilot

25. 1990's - National Weather Service modernized
Radar
Satellite
Wind profiler
Automated Surface Observing Stations (ASOS)
Advanced Computer Models

27. Types of Radars Conventional and Doppler Radar
What is a conventional radar?
What is a Doppler radar?
How often do you really see doppler radar on T.V.?
What is NEXRAD?

31. Conventional Radar

32. Doppler Radar

34. Radar Short Comings Listening Time Problem Beam Spreading Problem
2 micro sec (10-6 sec) x 186,000 mi/sec
Beam Spreading Problem
Attenuation
Problem Caused by the earth
Sample

36. Types of Satellites GOES Polar Why only two types?
What do we see on TV?

42. Satellite Short Comings
Resolution
Attenuation and contamination
Curvature of the earth (limb viewing)
Sample

43. Wind Profiler

46. Wind Profilers’ Short Comings
Listening Time Still a problem
Attenuation
Curvature of the earth

47. Automated Surface Observing Stations (AMOS)

48. Data Assimilation

49. DEEP SOIL MOISTURE/TEMP
MODEL CONSIDERATIONS Free Atmosphere -Surface Energy-Radiation-PBL-Hydrology
ATMOSPHERIC DATA INPUT Gridded Data for Initial and LBCs, Observed via Data Assimilation
PBL
Terrain
Veg & LU
Hydrology
Radiation
SURFACE DATA INPUT
DEEP SOIL MOISTURE/TEMP

50. Establish Model grid – means assimilate all the data and write out a dynamically initial stat. So this part represents the databases, and preprocessing.

51. 2.5° x 2.5° NCEP Reanalysis Gridded Data
Regional Models
Nested runs from large to small scale
2.5° x 2.5° NCEP Reanalysis Gridded Data

52. Importance of Terrain and Sea Databases

53. Advanced Computer Models
Advanced Models

54. . C C ************************* C * Initialize profiles. *
DO 20 K=1,NZ
PT2TH (K) = ( / P(K))**KAPP
PTH2T (K) = ( P(K)/ )**KAPP
THA (K) = T(K) * PT2TH(K)
THAD(K) = THA(K)
QLI = 0.0
DO N = 1, NQ
QLI = QLI + QC(K,N)
QCA(K,N) = QC(K,N)
ENDDO

55. Questions Who discovered that weather systems moved?
What are the ways we measure the weather? Tell which ones are remote and which ones are insitu?
How does a satellite work?
What is the difference between a conventional and Doppler radar display?