1. Analysis of Network Outage Reports
Cybersecurity and Communications Reliability Division – Public Safety & Homeland Security Bureau
John Healy
May 2018

2. Data Source Database snapshot as of April 9, 2018
NORS Final Outage Reports through February 2018 were used in the analysis
Excluded Reports
DS3 Simplex and DS3 Non-Simplex outages affecting less than 3 DS3s and no OC3s
DS3 Non-Simplex outages with 2000 or less DS3 minutes

3. Frequency Trend Analyses
Past trend and seasonality effects
Estimates used in trend chart
Based on 3-year window (Dec 2014 – Nov 2017)
Most recent trend
Comparison with past trend
Based on 3-year window (Mar 2015 – Feb 2018)
Average monthly frequency (12/17 – 2/18)
Test if significantly different from expected frequency based on past trend and seasonality effects

4. Frequency of Outages by Month
Monthly Trend 1.0%
(down from 1.1%)
12/17 – 2/18 Monthly Average Outage Reports
(significantly lower than expected)

5. Outage Index – For All Outages Except OC3-Simplex
See ATIS Analysis of FCC-Reportable Service Outage Data for a description of the method used to calculate the outage index.

6. Planned Maintenance Monthly Trend 3.8% (down from 4.6%)
12/17 – 2/18 Monthly Average Outage Reports
(significantly lower than expected)

7. OC3 Non-Simplex Monthly Trend 0.9% (down from 1.1%)
12/17 – 2/18 Monthly Average Outage Reports
(significantly lower than expected)

8. Big DS3 Outages

9. Big DS3 Outages Monthly Trend 0.7% (down from 1.5%)
12/17 – 2/18 Monthly Average 57.7 Outage Reports
(significantly lower than expected)

10. 12/17 – 2/18 Monthly Average 156.7 Outage Reports
OC3 Simplex
Monthly Trend 1.1%
(down from 1.2%)
12/17 – 2/18 Monthly Average Outage Reports

11. Fiber Cut Monthly Trend flat 0% (unchanged)
12/17 – 2/18 Monthly Average Outage Reports
(significantly higher than expected)

12. 12/17 – 2/18 Monthly Average 84.0 Outage Reports
Monthly Trend flat 0.0%
(unchanged)
12/17 – 2/18 Monthly Average 84.0 Outage Reports

13. Very Large E911 Outages Monthly Trend flat 0% (unchanged)
12/17 – 2/18 Monthly Average
1.7 Outage Reports

14. 12/17 – 2/18 Monthly Average 19.3 Outage Reports
E911 – Phase 2 Events
Monthly Trend 1.9%
(down from 2.1%)
12/17 – 2/18 Monthly Average 19.3 Outage Reports

15. 12/17 – 2/18 Monthly Average 100.0 Outage Reports
Wireline
Monthly Trend
flat 0%
(unchanged)
12/17 – 2/18 Monthly Average Outage Reports
Wireline outages are all outages for which the Reason Reportable was at least 900,000 wireline user-minutes.

16. 12/17 – 2/18 Monthly Average 199.7 Outage Reports
Wireless
Monthly Trend
1.1%
(up from 1.0%)
12/17 – 2/18 Monthly Average Outage Reports

17. VoIP Monthly Trend 3.7% (down from 4.3%)
4Q17 Monthly Average Outage Reports
(significantly lower than expected)

18. 12/17 – 2/18 Monthly Average 12.3 Outage Reports
SS7
Monthly Trend -1.8%
(up from -2.2%)
12/17 – 2/18 Monthly Average 12.3 Outage Reports

19. 12/17 – 2/18 Monthly Average 7.7 Outage Reports
Malicious Events
Monthly Trend -2.2%
(up from -3.2%)
12/17 – 2/18 Monthly Average 7.7 Outage Reports

20. Malicious Activity
The figures for 2018 are through February.

21. 12/17 – 2/18 Monthly Average 500.3 Outage Reports
Hardware Failure
Monthly Trend 0.9%
(down from 1.0%)
12/17 – 2/18 Monthly Average Outage Reports

22. Environmental – External
Monthly Trend 0.7% (down from 0.8%)
12/17 – 2/18 Monthly Average Outage Reports
(significantly lower than expected)

23. Power Failure Monthly Trend flat 0% (down from 0.7%)
12/17 – 2/18 Monthly Average Outage Reports
(significantly lower than expected)

24. Diversity Failure Monthly Trend -0.8% (down from 0%)
12/17 – 2/18 Monthly Average 43.0 Outage Reports
(significantly lower than expected)

25. Duration Trends: OC3 Non-Simplex
The duration of OC3 Non-Simplex outages is statistically unchanged in 2018 compared with 2017 (using a Mann-Whitney test).

26. Duration Trends: E911
The duration of E911 outages is statistically unchanged in 2018 compared with 2017 (using a Mann-Whitney test). 7

27. Duration Trends: Wireline
The duration of wireline outages is statistically unchanged in 2018 compared with 2017 (using a Mann-Whitney test).
143

28. Duration Trends: Wireless
The duration of wireless outages is statistically unchanged in 2018 compared with 2017 (using a Mann-Whitney test). 14

29. Duration Trends: OC3 Simplex (excluding outages with duration less than 5 days)
The duration of OC3 Simplex outages is statistically unchanged in 2018 compared with 2017 (using a Mann-Whitney test).

30. Duration Trends: VoIP
The duration of VoIP outages is statistically unchanged in 2018 compared with 2017 (using a Mann-Whitney test). 11

31. Test for Trend in Event Duration
Non-OC3-Simplex Outages
Data from 3/2015 thru 2/2018
OC3-Simplex Events Only
(5 days duration minimum)
Data from 3/2015 thru 2/2018
Rank Correlation of duration with date is and is significant at the .001 level
Rank Correlation of duration with date is .051 and is significant at the .001 level
Conclusion: Durations of Non-OC3-Simplex Outages have shortened over the period from 3/2015 thru 2/2018.
Conclusion: Durations of OC3-Simplex Events have lengthened over the period from 3/2015 thru 2/2018.

32. NORS Transition Monthly NORS Coordinators Meetings NORS User Manual
FCC sent proposed changes to NORS manual to the NRSC for its feedback
DS3 Simplex threshold change implemented in December 2017
Implemented going from DS3s to OC3s in January 2018