1. RENewable Integration in power system CREO 2018 modelling and power sector results
这是面向未来的，面向2050年的可再生能源发展情景分析报告
Energy Research Institute of NDRC
China National Renewable Energy Centre

2. Question: How should the energy system develop to comply with the ambitious targets for 2035 and 2050? 基本问题： 能源系统如何发展以实现2050美丽中国的愿景？

3. CREO approach CREO研究方法
Scenarios for the whole Chinese energy system
Bottom-up models for the energy demand and for the power system
Detailed power system model simulating the current dispatch rules as well as an efficient wholesale market dispatch
Use scenario analyses as basis for policy strategy research and policy recommendations
Two main scenarios in CREO
Stated Policies scenario, estimating the energy system development based on current and stated policies
Below 2 °C scenario with added restrictions on CO2 emission to comply with the Paris agreement goals
情景分析作为政策、战略研究和建议的基础。
每一个情景的设定都是有边界条件的，边界条件就是情景实现的环境或平台，当我们通过模型分析出结果时，边界条件就成为情景实现的政策环境，随着模型分析出的路径在不同时段的约束，就是我们需要的政策。

4. Fossil fuel prices must reflect the real cost 化石能源价格需反映其实际成本
Minimum cost for CO2 emission in the ETS market
Scenario
2017
2020
2030
2040
2050
Stated Policies 30 50 75
100
Below 2 °C
125
200
CO2 price in the ETS market
Sets a minimum cost for CO2 emission in the scenario calculations
CO2 constraints for the energy system
Forces fossil fuels out of the energy system earlier – gives higher CO2 costs if the constraints are reflected in the ETS market
Does not impact the transition in the Stated Policies Scenario
CO2 emission constraints

5. Policy targets and resources 政策目标和资源条件
Policy name
Period
Targets
Energy 13th Five-Year Plan and Renewable Energy  13th Five- Year Plan
Renewable power generation capacity including wind, solar, biomass, geothermal, pumped- hydro and ocean energy
Natural gas share short-term target
Energy Production and Consumption Revolution Strategy ( )
Total primary energy consumption, non-fossil fuels share, carbon and energy intensity reduction, energy self-sufficiency
Natural gas share mid-term target
North China Clean heating plan
New heat supply from coal clean heating, natural gas, biomass, MSW, solar, geothermal and heat pump, etc.
Environment 13th Five-Year Plan
2020
Reduction of coal consumption in key areas  
Three-year Blue Sky Protection Plan and 13th Five-Year Plan for Environment Protection
Total coal consumption, shares of coal for power generation, pollutant emissions, shares of the natural gas in the total energy consumption
Monitoring and Early Warning Mechanisms for Coal-fired / Wind / Solar Plant Planning and Construction
N/A
Restricted areas for new investments of coal-fired, wind, and solar plants
Available resources
2020
2050
Hydropower
341 GW
529 GW
Wind
5,117 GW
Onshore
4,900 GW
Offshore
217 GW
Solar
3,757 GW
Utility PV
2,537 GW
DGPV
More than 2000 GW
CSP
308 GW

6. Power market电力市场 development 发展 - from local to national markets
Generation rights phase-out
Minimum full annual load hours reduced to zero towards 2025
Merit-oder dispatch based on spot market
Interconnection of local（provincial） markets
First regional markets in 2022
Full integration from 2040
Market price stimulating flexible operation and new technologies
Incentives for flexible dispatch of thermal power plants and interconnectors
Demand side response and smart charging of EVs gradually introduced
Electric boilers, heat pumps and heat storages

7. Energy system modelling 能源系统模型
Socioeconomic drivers
Technologies
Policies
Energy system modelling 能源系统模型
Primary energy demand
Final energy demand
Energy service demand
Transformation
Bioenergy
Wind
Solar
Hydro
Geothermal
Ocean
Nuclear
Coal
Oil
Gas
Fossil fuel processing
Power generation and transmission
District heating production
Heat production
Biomass processing
Agriculture
Industry
Buildings
Construction
Transport
Industrial Production
Service value added
The scenarios are modelled in the CNREC modelling suite, covering energy supply, energy transformation and end- use sectors.
Building heating
Building cooling
Food production
New infrastructure
Personal transport
Transport for trade
Manufacturing
Citizen comfort
Energy flows
Investments and operating cost
Emissions
Socioeconomic impact

8. Socioeconomic drivers
Technologies
Policies
EDO model 电力与区域供热模型
Primary energy demand
Final energy demand
Energy service demand
Transformation
Bioenergy
Wind
Solar
Hydro
Geothermal
Ocean
Nuclear
Coal
Oil
Gas
Biomass processing
Agriculture
Industry
Buildings
Construction
Transport
Industrial Production
Service value added
Power generation and transmission
The production of power and district heating is modelled in the bottom- up, least-cost optimisation model EDO in order to reflect cost effective integration of variable energy production.
Building heating
Building cooling
District heating production
Food production
New infrastructure
Heat production
Personal transport
Transport for trade
Fossil fuel processing
Manufacturing
Citizen comfort
Energy flows
Investments and operating cost
Emissions
Socioeconomic impact

9. Balmorel model - users
Worldwide application

10. Balmorel users Danish consultancy Danish energy association
Greater Copenhagen
district heating utility
Danish Technical University
China National Renewable
Energy Centre
Mexican Ministry of energy
Indonesia's power utility company
National Energy Council
of Indonesia
Technical research centre of Finland
Danish green energy think-tank
Lithuanian, Latvian and Estonian TSO’s
Institute of Energy Vietnamese consultancy
Norwegian University of Life Sciences
Tallinn University of Technology
National autonomous University of Mexico

11. The Model structure

12. Balmorel model – use cases
Annual optimization (‘full foresight’ within the year)
Flexible time representation : chronological or representative time-slices
Can make investments [optional] – myopic
Generates boundary conditions
Includes unit commitment [optional/relaxed/limited]
Connection between time-slices and # of cycles (for UC & storage)
Weekly optimization (as above – no endogenous investments)
Hourly time resolution
Imports boundary conditions from annual optimization
Investments in generation and transmission
Weekly hydro use
Weekly water values
Shadow values of: fuel availability constraints, emissions constraints, policies
‘Circular constraints’ – unit commitment, short-term storage,..

13. EDO/Balmorel characteristics
Merits
Demerits
Grid is reduced to one capacity between regions
Only considers the hourly energy balance
No voltage considerations
Simplified representation of transmission
Demand, inflow, wind and solar availability know for the whole year
Optimal use of hydro (water values) and storages
Perfect prediction of wind and solar
Full foresight
Considers only one year at a time
Cannot foresee abrupt changes in assumptions (e.g. fuel price drops)
Short-sighted investment optimization
Same as perfect planning!
Perfect competition (perfect market)
Balmorel has seen 18 years of continuous improvements
Advanced model
No Black-box model – all data, assumptions and equations are accessible
Transparent
Balmorel is open source and therefore free
The commercial solver, GAMS, is however required.
GAMS (General Algebraic Modelling System), a high-level modelling system for mathematical programming problems
Open source
Possible to implement new policies, new constraints and additions to the objective function, technologies types etc.
Flexible
Adaptable with local data and assumptions to both very large or small power systems.
Transferable

14. Balmorel model Open source and downloadable at: www.balmorel.com
Requires commercial solver GAMS (General Algebraic Modelling System), a high-level modelling system for mathematical programming problems

15. Power sector development
CREO 2018 results
Power sector development

16. Power Capacity 电力装机 Drivers: short-term – policy target mid- and long term – cost and CO2 budget
13th Five Year Plan period:
Wind: 221 GW, Solar 230 GW, Biomass 48 GW
Stated Policies Scenario
Wind power: 1162 GW by 2035 and 2062 GW by 2050
Solar power: 1494 GW by and 2165 GW by hereof 950 GW, GW and 1450 GW respectively as DG
Below 2 °C Scenario
Wind power: 1826 GW by 2035 and 2664 GW by 2050
Solar power: 2000 GW by 2035 and 2836 GW by hereof 1250 GW and 1680 GW respectively as DG

17. Generation mix 电力供应 Flexibility, including storages as well as demand response is very important
Stated Policies Scenario 2020, 2035, 2050
Non-fossil power share: 33%, 66%, 86%
RE power share: 27%, 59%, 79%
Non-hydro renewables: 12%, 46%, 66%
Below 2 °C Scenario , 2030, 2050
Non-fossil power share: 33%, 77%, 94%
RE power share: 34 %, 72%, 88%
Non-hydro renewables: 12%, 59%, 76%

18. Large amount of RE can be integrated by enhancing flexibility 高比例可再生能源接入需要增强系统灵活性
Supply side measures
Flexible thermal power plants
Flexible hydro
Storage discharging
Market value based VRE remuneration incentives

19. Large amount of RE can be integrated by enhancing flexibility 高比例可再生能源接入需要增强系统灵活性
Demand side measures
Peak load shaving
Industrial load shifting
EV smart charging
Storage loading
Electricity to heat

20. Reaching cost parity promoting the sustainable development of RE technologies 平价上网促进可再生能源可持续发展
Levelized cost of energy ( RMB/kWh)
Technology improvement
Lowering down the investment risks given stable policies and strong financial support
Market mechanism allowing equal generation right
Low marginal cost & less external cost

21. Power cost 电力成本 Long term benefits
Cost of power production shift from fuel costs to capital cost
Both scenarios have lower power cost in 2050 compared with today’s prices (in fixed prices)
The huge investments in RE technologies will give higher power cost in the short run, but also benefits in form of job creation, RE industry development and better environment

22. CO2 emissions (million tons) and CO2 intensity (ton/kWh) from the power and district-heating sector from 2016 to 2050 碳排放总量和 碳排放强度

23. Grid expansion and inter-regional balancing is essential

24. Thanks for your attention
韩雪 Xue Han, ERI & CNREC