1. South Monaghan Public School Historical and Projected Enrolment
January 2013

2. Overview Board policy BA-1.2 the 2012 Annual Accommodation Plan
historical enrolment
factors considered in projecting enrolments
projected enrolment

3. Board Policy BA-1.2
annual Board review of pupil accommodation

4. Annual Accommodation Plan
Monitoring South Monaghan Public School enrolment for a number of years for a possible accommodation review
accommodation plan updated May 2012
South Monaghan PS review enrolment trends and determine need to consolidate into Millbrook/South Cavan PS, Roger Nielson PS and North Shore PS

6. Census Data Township of Cavan-Monaghan 1996 2001 2006 2011
15 Year Change
Total Population
8,252
8,453
8,828
8,601
+349 persons
(average 23/yr)
% Aged 0-14 yrs
22.5
20.6
17.8
14.4
decrease
% Aged yrs
66.0
68.2
68.9
70.9
increase
% Aged 65 yrs +
11.6
11.3
13.3
14.7
Median Age
36.4
39.1
42.5
45.9
Total Private Households
2,700
2,840
3,020
3,095
+395 households
(average 26/year)
% One-person Households
11.9
13.4
13.1
15.0
% Households - couple with children
42.4
43.3
36.6
34.4
% Households - couple & no children
36.5
35.7
37.3
40.1
Average Household Size
3.0
2.9
2.7

7. Census Data Township of Otonabee-South Monaghan 1996 2001 2006 2011
15 Year Change
Total Population
6,749
6,669
6,934
6,660
-89 persons
(average -6/yr)
% Aged 0-14 yrs
22.1
19.3
16.0
13.2
decrease
% Aged yrs
65.1
66.6
68.9
70.2
increase
% Aged 65 yrs +
12.6
14.1
15.0
16.7
Median Age
37.7
41.3
44.3
47.6
Total Private Households
2,335
2,405
2,570
2,520
+185 households
(average 12/yr)
% One-person Households
15.6
16.9
% Households - couple with children
40.9
36.2
33.1
29.8
% Households - couple & no children
34.7
38.3
41.1
43.5
Average Household Size
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.6

8. Demographic Trends
a concentration of population & higher growth in larger urban areas
growth in immigration & a decline in natural population increase
a declining fertility rate
an aging population
a declining number of persons per household
a decline in public elementary and secondary enrolment

9. South Monaghan PS Historical ADE 2002 to 2011
MCSC
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
204.00
203.75
187.25
183.00
171.25
152.00
138.75
142.00
135.50
107.25
109.00
% UTZ
100%
92%
90%
84%
Under-utilized
75%
68%
70%
66%
53%

11. South Monaghan PS Projected ADE Enrolment
MCSC
Actual
Oct
FTE
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
204.00
100.00
94.00
97.00
84.00
82.00
% UTZ
49%
Under-utilized
46%
48%
41%
40%

13. Projected Enrolment

14. Factors Considered Current enrolment Demographics Development activity
PPS, Provincial Plans
Official Plan(s)

15. Conclusion South Monaghan PS has had a declining enrolment trend
South Monaghan PS is projected to continue to be under-utilized and this is reinforced by a variety of information sources