1. Byron Woertz Manager, System Adequacy Planning
RAC Study Program
Byron Woertz
Manager, System Adequacy Planning
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

2. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Communications
“Put it before them briefly so they will read it, clearly so they will appreciate it, picturesquely so they will remember it and, above all, accurately so they will be guided by its light.” (Joseph Pulitzer)
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

3. 2018-2019 Reliability Assessment Process
Study Program Development
Reliability Assessment Teams
Assessment Scoping
Assessment Completion
Reporting
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

4. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
From Past to Future
Tool-Based Approach
What can we learn from PCM analyses?
What can we learn from power flow analyses?
Risk-Based Approach
What potential future reliability risks should we be thinking about?
How can we study them?
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

5. Drivers for Future Reliability Assessments
Study Program
Priority Reliability Issues
Board Near-Term Priorities
WECC Scenarios
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

6. WECC Near-Term Priorities
Improve the representation of inverter-based resources in WECC’s base cases
Focus on data collection for utility-scale photovoltaic resources, battery storage, and Distributed Energy Resources (DER)
Representation of Inverter-Based Resources
Existing Path Ratings
Remedial Action Scheme effectiveness
Expansion of utility-scale storage devices
Protection system ratings
Resource adequacy (RA) and alternate RA methodologies
Interface between transmission and distribution with a focus on modeling techniques
Essential Reliability Services unique to the Western Interconnection
Impacts of the Changing Resource Mix
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

7. WECC Near-Term Priorities
Evaluate potential reliability risks and mitigating measures
Consider Regional Reliability Standards, resulting from the expansion of Reliability Coordinators (RC) and/or market service providers
Expansion of RC and Market Service Providers
Improve coordination by clarifying the roles, responsibilities, and relationships among WECC and
FERC-Jurisdictional Regional Planning Groups
International Planning Groups (non-FERC Jurisdictional Canadian entities)
Planning Coordinators
Transmission Planners
Other stakeholders involved in BPS planning
Clarify Roles in BPS Planning
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

8. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
WECC Scenarios
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 1
Regulations are open and flexible to allow a range of electric service options
Customer adoption of new energy options is limited by new products not meeting customer needs
The bulk transmission system is maintained to back up reliability for the Interconnection
Scenario 2
Customers are willing to try new energy options with varied levels of success and benefits vs. costs
The bulk electric system is allowed to diminish as reliability can be met increasingly by distributed energy resources
Scenario 3
Regulations are made to hold control over the system to assure environmental goals are rmet and community-wide reliability is maintained
Customer demand for new energy options is constrained to assure cost sharing and overall system integrity
The bulk electric system is protected and maintained to assure reliability for the Interconnection
Scenario 4
Regulations are put in place to assure standards are met for reliability and system integrity
Customers are directed toward new service options based on regulatory approval to assure reliability
Scenario 3
Scenario 4
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

9. Reliability Assessment Structure
Key Reliability Question
Connection to NT Priorities and Scenarios
Modeling Options
Data Needs
Expected Results
Resource Requirements
Potential Partners
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

10. Potential Reliability Assessment Themes
Change in System Inertia
What are the reliability impacts of retiring significant thermal resources?
What are the impacts on frequency response?
Could the system respond adequately with high solar/wind penetration an no synthetic inertia?
Achieving GHG Reduction
Are renewables the best option?
What additional resources ca be used to enhance ERS with high renewable penetration levels?
What CO2 price would be required to achieve GHG reduction targets?
Electric Vehicle Market Penetration
Do high penetration levels (10%? 20%? 50%?) create reliability risks?
How would these penetration levels affect transmission utilization?
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

11. Potential Themes, cont.
WECC Scenario 1: Open Market, Restricted Choices
As disparate electric service markets develop is there an optimal sub-regional for the addition of utility-scale resources?
As state and provincial policies become uncoordinated, and the Interconnection begins to fracture, what may be the impacts of an increasingly diverse resource mix
WECC Scenario 2: Open Market, High Choice
As distributed resources become significant, what infrastructure changes and upgrades in the BPS and distribution systems might be needed for system integration, co-optimization, and coordinated operations?
How might customer and other BTM energy products and services be captured for planning purposes?
WECC Scenario 3: High Mandates, Restricted Choices
How might the most economically competitive utility-scale power supply resources across the Western Interconnection be identified and paired with the appropriate transmission?
As more utility-scale wind and solar resources are brought into the Western Interconnection, what kind and at what level will fossil, storage and other non-intermittent resources be needed to assure reliability?
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

12. Potential Themes, cont. WECC Scenario 4: High Mandates, High Choice
What are the reliability impacts of retiring significant thermal resources?
What are the impacts on frequency response?
Could the system respond adequately with high solar/wind penetration an no synthetic inertia?
WECC Scenario 5: Energy-Water-Climate Change Scenario
What potential risks to the reliability of the Bulk Electric System in the Western Interconnection would result through changes to the climate?
What potential geographic shifts in electricity demand due to changing demographics driven by reactions to increased global warming and extreme weather events might occur in the region?
Reliability Impacts of the Most Likely Year 10 Future
In the Year 10 “Base Case” (2028 Anchor Data Set), are there any reliability risks associated with path flows, resource adequacy, system stability or other parameters?
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

13. Potential Themes, cont. Utility Business Models
Will alternate utility business models create reliability risks?
Could the development of “prosumagers” create reliability risks?
What could be the impact of aggregated prosumagers becoming virtual utilities?
Resilience
What are the reliability impacts of a major disruption in 2020, 2028 and 2038?
What natural events could cause a major disruption?
What corresponding impacts on gas, water, communications or other systems could exacerbate electric system impacts?
Significant Increase in Demand
What reliability risks could result from a significant increase in demand in the next years?
At what demand increase level could stability issues create a reliability risk?
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

14. Potential Themes, cont. Gas-Electric Interface Issues
What additional reliability risks might the Western Interconnection experience with high intermittent resource penetration?
What additional strains could there be on the gas transmission system?
Water Availability Impacts
With projected increases in natural gas generation, will there be sufficient water to operate thermal resources?
Resource Adequacy Under Contingency
Will there be sufficient resource adequacy if generator outages in 2028 follow historic patterns observed in
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

15. High Penetration of Electronically-Interfaced Loads
Potential Themes, cont.
Significantly Higher Levels of DER
What are the reliability impacts on the bulk power system and associated concerns that would result from significantly higher levels of DER in the Western Interconnection?
High Penetration of Electronically-Interfaced Loads
How will the increasing penetration of electronically-interfaced end-use loads (e.g., air conditioning, motor loads converted to variable frequency drives (VFDs) affect reliability of the Western Interconnection in the future?
 Are utilities planning for power electronic load increase?
100% Carbon-Free Energy Supply for the Western Interconnection
What are the potential reliability impacts to the Bulk Power System in the Western Interconnection that could result from a 100% carbon-free energy supply?
What technologies are available to meet this goal? How efficient are they?
What is the timeframe for achieving this goal? What midpoints might be available at 5, 10 or 20 years?
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

16. Putting the Pieces Together
“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” (Yogi Berra)
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

17. Reliability Assessment Teams
System Adequacy Planning
Stakeholder Advocates
System Stability Planning
Modeling and Data Expertise
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

18. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Assessment Scoping
Finalize Key Questions to be Addressed
Reliability Risks
Reliability Events (Disturbance Response, Resource Inadequacy)
Identify Modeling Approaches
PCM
Power Flow
Dynamic
Other
Identify Data Needs
Sources
Validation Process
Use Existing Dataset or Create New
Identify Resource Needs
WECC Staff
Partners
Consultants
Organize Expected Results
Presentations
Written Reports
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

19. Assessment Completion
Conduct Assessment Components
Review Results with Team
Refine Analyses as Necessary
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

20. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Report on Assessments
Report
Prepare draft report of assessment results
Present
Present results to stakeholders
Revise report as necessary
Finalize
Finalize assessment report
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

21. 2018-2019 Study Program Schedule
Nov-Dec 2018
Complete Scoping
Form Assessment Teams
Jan-Sep 2019
Determine modeling approaches
Develop data
Complete assessments
Report on results
May-Aug 2019
Review assessment priorities
Consider new assessments
Oct-Dec 2019
Finalize reporting
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

22. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
ADS Schedule
Q – Q2 2018
Initial 2028 ADS Deliverables (Complete)
Jul 2017 – Dec 2018
Revised 2028 ADS PCM (Dec 10)
2028 PCM Reference Case (Dec 10)
Jul 2018 – Jun 2019
ADS Process Improvements
ADS Responsibilities Definition
Jul 2019 – Jun 2020
Build 2030 ADS
Western Electricity Coordinating Council