1. 73% Disapprove of how Congress is handling its job
"All in all, do you think things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track?" NBC Nov 1-2
11% right direction, 76% wrong direction
"How well are things going in the country today: very well, fairly well, pretty badly or very badly?“ CNN Oct 17
42% pretty badly, 33% very badly
73% Disapprove of how Congress is handling its job

2. And yet.. Few incumbents lose Partisan swing 16 House (12 R, 4 D)
2 Senate (R- NH, NC)
Partisan swing
5 GOP Senate seats lost (NH, NC, CO, NM, VA)
OR, AK, MN undecided
Democrat gains 20 in House

3. Context of Congressional Elections
Single member districts
Roughly equal size (650,000 souls)
First Tuesday in November in even # years
Australian ballot
Must win 2 elections

4. Same Place, Same Voters Three Maps, Three Outcomes
Basic Rules
each square same population.
All squares in the same district must touch
R squares have a majority of Republican voters
D squares have a majority of Democratic voters.
Each set of squares with the same color represent a single election district

5. Map 1 How many Ds and Rs elected? How many competitive elections?
five desirable less safe, more competitive districts, where the winner of the election may be either a Republican or a Democrat

6. Map 2 How many Ds and Rs elected? How many competitive elections?
three Republican and two Democratic majority districts, all safe 55 percent or better districts for incumbents of the respective parties. Note the very safe pink D district

7. Map 3 How many Ds and Rs elected? How many competitive elections?
two Republican and three Democratic majority districts, all safe 55 percent or better districts for incumbents of the respective parties:

8. Florida Florida's 22nd District 90 miles long Less than 3 miles wide.
every beach house lining Route A1A along Florida's Gold Coast from West Palm Beach to Miami Beach
52% Dem in 2000, 55% R in 2002

9. Social & Political Contexts
Amazing Variation
geographic size
Population
Economic base
Ethnicity
Age
Partisanship

10. Incumbency Reelection Rates 1832-1996

11. Incumbency 93% of House incumbents are reelected
1994, 84% of House Democrats were reelected
77% of Senate incumbents are reelected
#1 question to ask for congressional elections, Is there an incumbent?

12. Sources of Incumbent advantage
Institutions are designed by members who want to get reelected.
Amazing array of resources
Free mail, trips to district, staff
Free facilities for TV and radio ads
Casework

13. # of Senate Staff, 1830 –1993

16. Puzzle

17. Is it the Money? Average incumbent gets 64.3% of vote
For every $100,00 spent, lose 1.17% of vote
For every $100,00 spent by party, lose 2.73% of vote
incumbent House winner spends $700,00
incumbent House loser spends 1,300,000

18. Incumbency Status and Voters' Familiarity with Congressional Candidates, 1980-1994
Jacobsen, The Politics of Congressional Elections, 1996

19. Voters’ Contact with Incumbents

20. Voters’ Contact with Candidates, 1990

21. Voters’ Contact with Candidates, 1990

22. Challengers 1990, 1994

24. Things Liked about Incumbents

25. Things Disliked about Incumbents

26. Things Liked about Challengers

27. Characteristics of Winning and Losing Challengers

28. Corporate PACs/Trade Associations 60% of all PAC $, 1994

29. The Incumbent’s Strategy
Discourage serious electoral competition
Hilary Clinton - who doesn’t she want to face!
Use casework, trips home, mailings to create perception of invulnerability
Ambitious career politicians and campaign funders are rational

30. Montana- McCain 50%, Baucus 73%
Arkansas McCain 59%, Mark Pryor, 80%

31. Who does Kirsten Gillibrand want to run against?
John Faso, GOP nominee for governor, 16 years state assembly
Jim Tedisco, Minority Leader of Assembly, 26 years state assembly
Sandy Treadwell, Appointed chair of New York GOP, wealth $50 million

32. Who is a marginal incumbent
Less than 60% of vote in previous election
Scandal in last term
Republican in a democratic leaning district
First term representative

33. Electoral Competition and Challenger Spending in 1994
Challenger’s party vote in last House election, spending by non-incumbent house candidate
<40%, $105,000
40-45%, $322,000
%, $433 ,000
Open seat $580,000

35. House of Representatives
61 “competitive” races in 2000
193 GOP incumbents won, 4 lost
199 Dem incumbents won, 2 lost
GOP wins 20 of 25 open seats
Dems with 4 of 10 open seats
17 changes of 435

37. Senate in 2000 12 toss up races out of 33 7 changes
GOP 13 of 18 incumbents win
Dems 10 of 11 incumbents win
GOP 0 of 1 on open seats
Dems 3 of 4 on open seats
7 changes

39. Expectations Game
Better the electoral odds, better the challenger and more money
Weak incumbents and open seats attract well funded quality challengers
Strong incumbents attract weak, poorly funded candidates

41. Strategic Politician Hypothesis
Best candidates, most money go to marginal incumbents, open seats
2nd tier candidates, some money go
Hopeless, poorly funded candidates run against strong incumbents

43. Rational Targeting in 2004 DCC identifies top races; direct $$ there
33 challengers spent over $2 million
200 spent less than $100,000
30 House elections decided by <10%
Bad for Public?
Bad for Party?

44. Expand the Field in 2006? 30 races or a 100
Campaign Spending diminishing returns ($1 million)
Extra $500k  10 races

45. ABC News/Washington Post Poll
How would you vote in your congressional district if the election "were being held today?"
52% of registered voters Dem
37% for Republican candidates
Who would you like to see "in control of Congress after the congressional elections a year from now?
55% Dems
37% Republicans.
ABC News/Washington Post Poll

46. Strategic Politician Model
Implication candidates decide elections, not voters

47. Campaigns ½ of all money is wasted, high uncertainty
What issues are important
Low turnout
35% turnout in midterm elections
Who votes? seniors and partisans!
Random terror and running scared
Tom Foley, speaker of the house, 15 terms

48. Why do incumbents win? Better known (90% vs 40%
Better liked (more familiar)
Better funded

49. Why do challengers win?
Make voters aware of incumbents’ shortcomings, their own virtues via mass media
Are well funded
Implications???

50. NY’s 21st District
55% Bush
Gillibrand

51. Reforming the System Term limits Increase competitiveness of elections
Federal level
State level
Increase competitiveness of elections
Campaign finance reform
Key Issue, how to get more people to run for office!!!

52. “Race to the Base”
% Reagan
% Clinton
% Kerry

53. Electoral Replacement The Death of the Gypsy Moth
Scott Garrett
Marge Roukema

54. Candidate Certification in Open Primaries
216 House members, 42 senators

55. Declare War on Rinos Republican In Name Only Arlen Specter (PA)
Lincoln Chafee (RI)
George Voinvich (OH)
Olympia Snowe (ME)

56. Primary Challengers for Moderates
War on Rinos
Senator Chafee (R-RI) vs Steve Laffey

57. Safe Electoral Strategy
Cater to partisan and ideological GOP base
10 competitive races in 2004
35 competitive races in 2006

58. Why Incumbents Win Table 5.3, high name recognition
Table 5.7, Voters Contact with Candidates
Table 5.15
Personal
Performance/experience
District service
Ideology/Policy

59. Challengers Strategy Table 5.3 name recognition
Table 5.11, Campaign expenditures and name recognition
Table 5.7, Voters Contact with Candidates
Where do voters learn about challengers
Table 5.15, Things liked about challengers
What is #1?