1. POS 2041: American Politics Today

2. Exam Reminder Exam #4 (cumulative final exam) Dec. 12th 12:30pm
In this classroom
There will be a study guide for this exam
Will be posted today!

3. Current Political Condition
After the 2018 Election, split government
Republican president Donald Trump
Republican Senate (53 R’s 47 D’s)
Republican House (235 D’s to 199 R’s)
Power split at the state level
US Governors
27 R’s 23 D’s

4. One Undecided House Race
Only 1 House race still undecided… and it might take a while!
North Carolina 9th Congressional District

5. One Undecided House Race
An actual legit case of election fraud!
In-person voter fraud is incredibly INCREDIBLY rare – near zero (but not actually zero)
Where you see any fraud is with absentee ballots
And that seems to have happened here

6. One Undecided House Race

7. One Undecided House Race

8. One Undecided House Race

9. One Undecided House Race
Something weird seems to have happened in Bladen and Robeson counties…
Bladen county seemed to have a far higher than usual number of absentee ballot requests and they voted strangely strongly Republican
Nationwide it is almost an accepted fact that Republicans win Election Day but Democrats win mail-in/early votes
In both Bladen and Robeson a larger than usual number of absentee ballots were never returned, far larger that everywhere else in the state

10. One Undecided House Race
Of course none of this proves any fraud, it could have just been a weird election…

11. 116th Congress The 116th Congress will be begin Jan. 3rd 2019
What should we expect from the new Congress?
Not much
Divided Congresses rarely results in any major legislation or actions

12. The States
While not much may happen in DC, states might see some significant policy changes

13. The States

14. The States
Public opinion is shifting quickly, marijuana is likely to be legalized in NY, NJ, and ILL within a year

15. 2020

16. 2020 Only 699 days until Election Day 2020!
Already talking about the next election? We just had one!
Trump is highly likely to be the Republican nominee
But who will be his opponent?

17. 2020 There are a LOT of potential Democrats Like a WHOLE lot!
Below are people who have hinted at or have been mentioned

18. 2020
Most, if not all, Democrats who want to run for President will announce their candidacy by April/May of 2019
Most announcements will come far sooner

19. George H.W. Bush

20. George H.W. Bush 41st President of the US (1989-1993)
Vice President to Ronald Reagan
Head of the CIA
Ambassador to China*
Ambassador to the UN
Member of Congress from the Texas 7th district
Oil business
Yale, played 2nd base in the College World Series
Navy pilot in WWII

21. George H.W. Bush
A Presidency of highs and lows

22. 1988 Presidential Election
Versus Democrat Michael Dukakis
Today looked back on as one of the nastiest elections of all time

23. Presidency of Bush Again, a lot of highs and a lot of lows
Oversaw the fall of communism and the USSR, ending the Cold War
Worked to stabilize Europe and former Soviet nations
Decisively won the Gulf War
Oversaw an economic downturn and cut a deal with Democrats on tax increases
“Read my lips: No new taxes!”

24. 1992 Presidential Election
Due to raises taxes Pat Buchanan primaried Bush, Bush won but it showed his weakness
High approval ratings caused many Democrats not to run
The worsening economy greatly hurt Bush
Ross Perot ran as an Independent
Polled around 15-20%

25. 1992 Presidential Election
Why did Bush lose?
Perot won 19% of the vote, but research suggests he drew an equal amount from both Clinton and Bush
Taxes? “roughly two-thirds of those voters who cited Bush's broken "No New Taxes" pledge as "very important" (25%) voted for Bill Clinton.”

26. Any Questions?
You, what’s your question?