1. Abu Dhabi Transport System
John Thomas
Different from yesterdays products, everyone has operated, beneficiary. Instead of a summary, I wanted to focus on something that makes you stop and think. Decided to show how concepts in class come together to influence automobiles today.

2. Outline Transport System Introduction Analysis Summary Masdar overview
Assumptions
System Model
Analysis
Uncertainty
Decision Tree
Lattice Analysis
Summary

3. Masdar Overview Masdar is a planned city in Abu Dhabi
City will rely entirely on renewable energy (like solar)
Zero carbon, zero waste
No gasoline engines
Use a mass transportation system

4. Simplifying Assumptions
Problem is too difficult to solve directly
Small subset of the problem was analyzed
Many simplifications made
Rough first-order approximation
Transportation system consists of:
Electric subway cars
Tunnels and tracks
Nominal fee per passenger
Consumer demand
Value of system
Object of political debate
Focus on calculating several metrics
NPV, return on investment, capital expenditure, etc.

5. System Model Tunnels Tracks and subway cars Consumer demand
Must be dug at the beginning
Tracks and subway cars
Can be purchased and installed anytime
Consumer demand
Not directly controlled
Input to system

6. System Design Definitions
Fixed design
System capacity is constant
Initial Investment
Dig all tunnels
Install track
Buy all subway cars
Flexible design
Maximum capacity predetermined
Actual capacity variable
Install more track
Buy more subway cars

7. Outline Transport System Introduction Analysis Summary Masdar overview
Assumptions
System Model
Analysis
Uncertainty
Decision Tree
Lattice Analysis
Summary

8. Uncertainty Principle uncertainty is demand
Commonly measured in passengers per day
Historical figures from Boston and New York
Expect around 50, ,000 passengers per day
Increase of around 0.3-5% per year
Standard deviation of around 5-7% per year
Masdar assumptions
75,000 passengers per day in first year
Increase of 5% per year
Standard deviation of 10% per year
Did not model uncertain uncertainty!

9. Decision Analysis First stage Second stage Decision: fixed or flexible
Chance: low, medium, high (demand)
Second stage
Decision: expand flexible design
Chance: decrease, same, increase (demand)

10. Decision Analysis Results
Flexible design better in almost all cases

11. Lattice Analysis
Uncertainty Model:

12. Lattice Results
Evaluate closure option

13. Outline Transport System Introduction Analysis Summary Masdar overview
Assumptions
System Model
Analysis
Uncertainty
Decision Tree
Lattice Analysis
Summary

14. Summary Flexible designs were slightly better in this case
Uncertainty is very important to model
Without uncertainty, flexibility isn’t very useful
Advantageous to compare multiple criteria
Political debate regarding “correct” criteria
Illustrate whole picture, show trade-offs