1. Aero Club of Washington
William Voss
President/CEO
June 30, 2009

2. Worldwide Commercial Jets
Major Accidents
Worldwide Commercial Jets
1998 – 2008
This chart shows both the number of Major accidents and the major accident rate for commercial jet aircraft in losses per one million departures for the last 10 full years, plus this year to date
The major accident numbers are for both Eastern and Western built aircraft
The rate is only for Western built aircraft because, even though we have the number of major accidents for Eastern built aircraft
we do not have reliable worldwide exposure data to calculate rates for them
* Reliable worldwide departure/rate data not available for Eastern-Built Aircraft
Source: Ascend

3. Major Accident Rate Western-Built Commercial Jets* 1997 – 2008
Accident rate per million departures
This chart shows both the major accident rate in accidents per one million departures and the 5 year running average of that rate for commercial jets
Again, this chart is only for Western built aircraft since it involves rates
As you can see, the recent decreasing trend has leveled off
* Reliable total departure data not available for Eastern-Built Aircraft
Source: Ascend

4. Breakdown: Accident Categories
The term “accident categories” refers to a generic classification of accidents.
Referring to these families helps an operator to:
Structure its safety activities and set priorities.
Avoid « forgetting » key risk areas, when a type of accident does not occur in a given year.
Mobilise concerned people around well-identified prevention opportunities.
Be more proactive by creating links in databases between safety reports and generic accident categories.
Address systematically and continuously these accidents in the airline’s annual prevention programme.
Although some categories may not have appeared in the accidents, operators should not dismiss efforts needed to prevent these types of events as they may reoccur if work to develop awareness and prevention strategies is weakened.
IATA Safety Report 2008
CEO & COO Brief

5. Regional Rate: Western-built Jet Hull Losses
The Map above presents the Regional Accident Rates for Western-built Jet Hull Losses per million sectors flown. These are assigned by the State of the Operator involved in the accident.
IATA Safety Report 2008
CEO & COO Brief

6. What it Looks Like to the Public

7. 20 August — Spanair Madrid

8. 22 September — XL Airways Perpignan, France

9. 20 December — Continental Denver

10. 15 January — US Airways New York

11. 12 February — Colgan Air Buffalo

12. 25 February — Turkish Airways Amsterdam

13. 20 March – Emirates Airlines Melbourne

14. 23 March – FEDEX Tokyo

15. 1 June - Air France 447

16. 30 June – Yemenia 626 Comoros

17. NEW TRENDS

18. The Biggest Killer
Used to be CFIT

19. Now it is Loss of Control
The Biggest Killer
Now it is Loss of Control

20. LOOKING TO THE FUTURE

21. The Future is Inescapable
We are in the middle of an explosion of the world's middle class
About 70m people a year globally are entering this wealth group
Accelerating to 90m a year by 2030
In 20 years 2bn people will have joined the ranks of the middle class
Source: Chief economist, Goldman Sachs, July 2008

22. ICAO IATA Revised Forecast

23. Where Traffic Growth will Occur
Source: Airbus Global Market Forecast

24. What about the Regulator?
190 state regulatory agencies
“With respect to aircraft operations, approximately half of the audited states have an insufficient number of flight operations inspectors to adequately perform safety oversight of civil aviation activities.”
ICAO

25. RESPONSES

26. Safety is Information Driven
Share the information
Protect the information
Act on the information

27. Share the Information
Between competitors
Between segments of the industry
Between regulators

28. Safety is Information Driven
Share the information
Protect the information
Act on the information

29. Protect the Information
Public demanding more accountability
Prosecutions becoming frequent
Direct interference with safety investigations becoming an issue

30. A Balanced to be Maintained
Safety
Justice
Accountability
Punishment
Redress
Data Protection
Reporting

31. Flight Safety Foundation Criticizes Prosecutorial Interference With Accident Investigation
The Flight Safety Foundation sharply criticized the interference of prosecutors in ongoing aviation accident investigations in Italy and France, warning that such interference hampers efforts to improve aviation safety and prevent similar accidents in the future

32. Joint Resolution Regarding Criminalization of Aviation Accidents

33. Legislative Protections
Flight Safety Foundation Calls for Stronger Protection of Volunteered Aviation Safety Information
FSF today endorsed the creation of a “qualified exception” from discovery of voluntary self-disclosure reporting programs, similar to the protection already provided in U.S. law against the use of Cockpit Voice Recorder …

34. Safety is Information Driven
Share the information
Protect the information
Act on the information

35. Act on the Information Update old rules with new information
Fatigue Risk Management
Build on the substantial existing science
Training in this century, for this century
Create meaningful standards that reflect the real world
Respond to emerging trends
Are yesterdays scenarios still today’s threats?

36. Summary The accident rate is starting to increase
The causes are shifting
Growth is inevitable and we are not positioned to handle it
Safety information is the key, but it must be shared, protected, and acted upon
Time to act on fatigue and training without regard to past constraints