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2. Measuring Marketing Spend: Multi-Stage Marketing Mix Modeling
Doug Jensen
VP, CRM & Corporate Marketing Analytics
Estée Lauder Companies
October 2018

3. Marketing Objective: Accurately Measure Marketing Across the Consumer Decision Journey
Challenge / Opportunity:
Measure marketing objectives when sales isn’t the only outcome
Measure the tactics’ contribution on each stage of the journey: awareness, consideration / engagement, conversion
Understand how upper funnel tactics contribute to each stage of the journey
Determine how digital & e-commerce marketing efforts drive upper funnel activity
Measure e-commerce marketing halo onto brick & mortar

4. Consumer Decision Journey
We conduct consumer research to determine the important touch points on the consumer’s journey with our brand in a key category
Answers questions such as:
What are the purchase journeys for a brand in a given category?
What tactics or touch points are important for awareness, consideration, conversion?
What does this mean for our brands?
The counter experience
In-store Experts
Advertising
In-store Displays and assortments
Word of Mouth
Online reviews
Promotions
Social Media (“Owned” and “Earned”)

5. Consumer Decision Journey / Funnel = Many Tactics
Traditional Tactics
Online
Brand-Owned
Retailer
Influencer
Traditional Paid Media
Editorials, PR mentions
Sampling
Events
Word of Mouth
Non-Branded Search
Paid / Non-Paid Social
Awareness Display
Prospecting (Look-a-like Targeting)
Native Content
Tutorials/How-to Videos
Tutorials/How- to Videos
Co-op Awareness Display
Repurpose influencer UGC and cultivate influencer relationships
Retail Events
Retail Windows
In-store Navigation
Paid Social / Paid Video
Brand Social Posts
Live Chat
Content / Visibility on Retailer sites
Influencer-led retail “meet-up” events
Product demostration
In-store Samples
Direct Mail
Branded Search
Performance Display
Retargeting Display
Online Sampling
Co-op Performance Display
GWP
Partnerships with influencers for promotions or discount codes (if appropriate)
Demo
Loyalty Programs (Brand and Retail)
Online Exclusives
Loyalty Programs
Ratings & Reviews
Retailer Loyalty Programs
Product collaborations with Influencers
There are many choices!
Awareness
Create Demand & Drive Traffic
Consideration & Engagement
ENGAGE
CONVERT
Conversion & Loyalty

6. Marketing Mix Modeling – Multi-Stage Approach
Multi-stage approach is a cascade model that measures the direct and indirect effects of marketing performance at each stage of the consumer journey / purchase funnel
Multi-stage approach allows to measure impact of both offline and online media investments on awareness, consideration, and conversion to sales
1. AWARENESS
2. CONSIDERATION
3. CONVERSION
Offline Media TV
Print
Radio
QUERIES
(GOOGLE)
Direct impact
Direct impact
Direct impact
IN-STORE-SALES
OOH
WEBSITE
TRAFFIC
ECOMM-SALES
Online Media
Display
Search
Indirect impact
Indirect impact
Social
In-Store
STEP 1:
IMPACT OF BOTH
ONLINE & OFFLINE MEDIA
ON SEARCH QUERIES
STEP 2:
IMPACT OF BOTH
ONLINE & OFFLINE MEDIA
ON WEBSITE TRAFFIC
STEP 3:
IMPACT OF BOTH
ONLINE & OFFLINE MEDIA
ON B&M
AND ECOM SALES
Promotions
Worker Hours
Other actions, etc.

7. Marketing Mix Modeling – Multi-Stage Approach
Estimate a total ROI per marketing lever by funnel area by integrating online to store effect
Identify differences of efficiency between lever at each step of customer purchase
1. AWARENESS
Queries
2. CONSIDERATION
Website Traffic
3. CONVERSION
Sales
Contribution
Illustrative
ROI

8. Google & Facebook Actively Partner on Measurement

9. Marketing Mix Vendors
Source: Forrester Research, “Marketing Mix Modeling Landscape Overview” by Luca Paderni, 2011 (classifications), updated with additional vendors listed in Forrester Wave, Q4 2016

10. My Perspective on Marketing Mix Modeling vs Multi-Touch Attribution
Multi-Stage Marketing Mix
Multi-Touch Attribution
Strategic vs. Tactical
Strategic
Tactical
Areas of Spend Evaluated
Traditional, Digital & Social Media; In-store;
E-commerce
E-Commerce
Areas of Consumer Journey Evaluated
Awareness, Consideration/ Engagement, Conversion
Conversion
Halo to Total Business
Yes No
Endorsed by Google & Facebook

11. Conclusion on Marketing Mix
Marketing Mix Modeling is a standard method for measuring overall marketing effectiveness and endorsed by Google and Facebook
Multi-stage modeling allows us to measure all parts of the consumer decision journey and have a good integration of ecommerce investments:
Having an un-siloed measure: same ROI scale for online & offline tactics
Understanding impact of digital & social media levers at each step of the consumer decision journey
Measuring the Online to store effect: how e-commerce investments are impacting B&M directly and indirectly through halo and cross channel effects

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