1. Michael Bailey, P.E. SDS Meeting, June 25-26, 2018
Update on 2034 Legacy Study
Michael Bailey, P.E.
SDS Meeting, June 25-26, 2018
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2. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Outline
Overview of Legacy Studies
Highlights of Observations
Release of the 2034 Legacy Study Report
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3. Overview of Legacy Studies
Reference Case (PC01)
Scenario 2 (PC1)
Scenario 3 (PC2)
Scenario 4 (PC3)
Scenario EWCC (PC6)
High DG (PC 4)
Low CO2 (PC 5)
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4. Highlights of Observations
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5. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Reference Case (PC01)
The foundational case upon which all 2034 Legacy studies are based. The 2034 Reference Case was extrapolated by extending the assumptions and trajectories of the 2026 Common Case another eight years to 2034.
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6. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
RC Resource Mix
Coal Displaced
Gas
Gas Retained only for Reliability
Onshore Wind Largest Share at 44%.
Renewable Represents 74% share.
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7. RC Reliability Resource Allocation
19% of Portfolio Allocated for Reliability
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8. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
RC CO2
CO2 Reduced by 90%.
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9. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
RC Water Consumption
Water Consumption Reduced by 70%.
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10. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Common Case LCOE (1 of 2)
Portfolio weighted average LCOE at $42.00 / MWh.
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11. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Common Case LCOE (2 of 2)
Portfolio weighted average LCOE at $42.00 / MWh.
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12. New Candidate LCOE (1 of 2)
New Thermal Candidates not Competitive
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13. New Candidate LCOE (2 of 2)
New Wind Most Competitive for New RPS.
Tight LCOE Spread with Solar PV.
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14. RC Environmental Impact
The per transmission mile environmental impact of the corridors ranged less than a category 2.
Weighted average impact of 1.2 per transmission mile.
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15. RC Transmission Utilization
Possible export expansion needed from New Mexico and Wyoming, driven by New Wind.
Intermountain DC Terminal Offers Interconnection Potential of Renewables.
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16. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Scenario 2 (PC1)
A future that includes high and widespread economic growth, and breakthrough and paradigm-changing technological developments.
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17. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Scenario 2 Highlights
Solar PV and distributed generation become competitive with wind and, subsequently, represents a larger share of the overall portfolio due to increased RPS, reduced renewable costs, especially solar, increased load.
The share of resources allocated for reliability increased to 33% of the portfolio installed nameplate capacity, primarily due to increased solar PV. ELCC was the dominate factor in reliability resources allocations.
South to north transmission utilization increased slightly with increased solar PV.
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18. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Scenario 3 (PC2)
A future that includes relatively low and localized economic growth combined with only evolutionary technological development.
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19. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Scenario 3 Highlights
Solar PV and distributed generation become competitive with wind and, subsequently, represents a larger share of the overall portfolio due to increased RPS, reduced renewable costs, especially solar, increased load.
The share of resources allocated for reliability increased to 36% of the portfolio installed nameplate capacity, primarily due to increased solar PV. ELCC was the dominate factor in reliability resources allocations.
Transmission utilization decreased overall with increased distributed generation.
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20. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Scenario 4 (PC3)
A future with relatively low and localized economic growth, but with breakthrough and paradigm-changing technological developments.
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21. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Scenario 4 Highlights
Allocation of distributed resources increased to a 46% share of the portfolio capacity with higher DG targets.
Increased share of distributed resources resulted in a higher effective system ELCC. With higher effective ELCC, the allocation of resources for reliability decreased to 1% of the portfolio capacity.
Transmission utilizations changed little from the Reference Case.
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22. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Scenario EWCC (PC6)
An Energy-Water-Climate Change (EWCC) future where adverse impacts to the environment and increased average global temperature occur because of global changes and assesses possible impacts on the reliability of the Western Interconnection.
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23. Scenario EWCC Highlights
Allocation of distributed resources increased to a 46% share of the portfolio capacity due to increased water constraints, increased load, increased RPS, and decreased renewable costs.
The share of resources allocated for reliability increased to 36% of the portfolio installed nameplate capacity due to increased water constraints, increased load, increased RPS.
South to north transmission utilization increased slightly with increased solar PV.
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24. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
High DG (PC 4)
A future where high penetrations of DG may influence the resource portfolio mix and transmission utilizations and to access the possible impacts the electrical reliability of the Western Interconnection?
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25. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
High DG Highlights
Allocation of distributed resources increased to a 46% share of the portfolio capacity with higher DG targets.
Increased share of distributed resources resulted in a higher effective system ELCC. With higher effective ELCC, the allocation of resources for reliability decreased to 1% of the portfolio capacity.
Transmission utilizations changed little from the Reference Case.
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26. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Low CO2 (PC 5)
A future where low CO2 emission policies may influence the resource portfolio mix and transmission utilizations and to access the possible impacts the electrical reliability of the Western Interconnection?
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27. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Low CO2 Highlights
More stringent CO2 constraints resulted in more geographic diversity of allocated resources. Since CO2 constraints are defined geographically in pools, the geographic diversity of allocated gas resources increased with more binding localized CO2 pool constraints.
Other than increased geographic diversity, the resource portfolio mix changed little from the reference case.
South to north transmission utilization increased slightly with increased solar PV.
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28. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
2034 Report Status
Draft Report Complete
Undergoing Final Internal Review
Will be posted Early July
First Webinar on Results will be Early-Mid July
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29. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Questions
Michael Bailey, P.E.
Western Electricity Coordinating Council