1. A Brainstorming Session Chorching Goh, the World Bank
Cities in Eurasia
A Brainstorming Session
Yerevan, Oct
Chorching Goh, the World Bank

2. Vision
Which places might a 21st century Silk Road connect?

3. Vision
In other words, where will the rather dim night sky of Eurasia twinkle in 20 years if things are done right?

4. Motivation
What will the Eurasia economic landscape look like in 20 years?
Moscow has shrunk from a mountain to a foothill in an economic landscape that includes Japan

6. Motivation
How CIS cities can lift their economies out of commodity dependence, and diversify through scale economies and connectivity?

7. sub-Disciplines
Economic Geography
Urban Economics
City Planning

8. Questions Location of people and production Functions of cities
Long-term evolution of CIS cities as the legacy of the Soviet Empire gives way to forces of trade and international cooperation
Functions of cities
Types of scale economies they exploit
Policies
Transport infrastructure
Land and housing market institutions

9. Analyses Economic linkages between large cities
Infrastructure
Trade facilitation
Agglomeration economies & productivity
Scale economies
Economic diversification
Reform in land and housing markets
Regulatory, credit and financing, and taxation
From public ownership to private property rights
These deal with the questions of, respectively, the location and reallocation, of production and people. The analyses will yield messages which are country and city specific.
*** To answer the first set of questions, we propose an analysis of the economic linkages between the bigger cities in the CIS and whether they are being fully exploited; an assessment of transport infrastructure needs and bottlenecks, analyses of Soviet urban planning legacies and urban investment priorities; and simulation exercises of various transport options between cities and their benefit-cost tradeoffs. Other component questions include what is the degree of integration among CIS cities now? And, what is its extent compared with those in big continental economies (e.g., North America, EU, Australia, Northeast Asia, Southern Cone…)? What has been the spatial reorganization of production that accompanies market driven adjustments? Can we learn something about future competitive advantages from such a process of factor reallocation and which would help governments focus on key bottlenecks in a more sectorally oriented way?
*** To answer the second set of questions of what these cities do and whether they fully exploit agglomeration economies, some work on Central Asia sheds some light. E.g., For economies to diversify out of commodity dependence, their major cities will play a the central role—today, they are the most sectorally diversified of all parts Kazakhstan and Krygyz Republic, and the pattern is likely the same in other countries. Urban agglomerations provide 3 types of services: internal scale economies, localization economies, and urbanization economies. Larger cities are broader-based or more diverse in their production structure. For example, Almaty is the most diverse (measured, say, by the Herfindahl Index), by a significant margin. The hypothesis is that with greater linkages between cities, each city becomes more specialized while its economy more diversified. It can now produce particular goods in scale. The study will extend the current work beyond Central Asia to include the Caucasus, Russia, and Eastern Europe see whether some patterns of specialization, clusters of production are emerging in the most prominent CIS cities. Such analyses will also inform us of different functions and roles of cities in the Eurasian space. For example, Chisinau may best serve its economy by strengthening its links with Odessa and Bucharest to benefit from transit businesses.
*** To answer the third set of questions on land and housing market institutions, we propose a review of two decades of policy reform in these areas and their progress and limitations; and an analysis of various aspects including regulation; credit and financing; and taxation. A critical issue includes the process of moving from public land ownership to private property rights, and how to ensure that it is both inclusive and efficient.

10. ANNEX

12. Economy
Population
(mil. 2007)
GNI per capita
Agglomeration (%)
2000 UN Urban (%)
Pri City’s Pop 2009 (mil)
Armenia 3
2,640
69.6
65.1
1.21
Azerbaijan 9
2,550
48.7
50.9
1.19
Belarus 10
4,220
60.6
70.0
1.76
Georgia 4
2,120
50.2
52.7
1.14
Kazakhstan 15
5,060
50.6
56.3
1.35
Kyrgyzstan 5
590
34.0
35.4
0.930
Moldova
1,260
49.4
46.1
0.586
Russia
142
7,560
64.8
73.4
10.5
Tajikistan 7
460
36.2
25.9
0.704
Turkmenistan --
42.6
45.1
0.695
Ukraine 46
63.9
67.2
2.3
Uzbekistan 27
730
54.2
37.3
2.14