1. NDM Data Sample Analysis: Final Results (2)
Option C: Regression Analysis
5th December 2012

2. Contents
In-Sample Results as per previous presentation i.e., Winter/Summer Modelling on 2008/2009 Data
AQ-Corrected Out-of-Sample Model fit using 2009/2010 data
Conclusion

3. OUT-OF-SAMPLE RESULTS
2009/2010 Gas year

4. Out-of-Sample Results: EUC1 Graphical Output
Oct 09-Mar 10
XoServe AQ
NDM Sample AQ
MAPE
7.68%
4,134,029
3,803,042
Average BIAS
7.12% R²
97.87%

5. Out-of-Sample Results: EUC2 Graphical Output
Oct 09-Mar 10
XoServe AQ
NDM Sample AQ
MAPE
16.23%
16,592,319
5,350,971
Average BIAS
9.62% R²
88.26%

6. Out-of-Sample Results: EUC3 Graphical Output
Oct 09-Mar 10
XoServe AQ
NDM Sample AQ
MAPE
21.89%
45,173,231
20,269,895
Average BIAS
19.87% R²
93.89%

7. Out-of-Sample Results: EUC4 Graphical Output
Oct 09-Mar 10
XoServe AQ
NDM Sample AQ
MAPE
13.67%
440,453,374
214,592,141
Average BIAS
12.12% R²
93.81%

8. Conclusion
Out-of-Sample data fit for Oct-09 to Mar-10 only as significant level shift (i.e., 30%+) observed. This is could be because of Regression coefficients needing to be re-estimated.
Out-of-sample accuracy results poor. This could be because of
the number of meters changing year on year
Lack of normalisation by AQ prior to modelling
Significant behavioural change not captured by analysis
AQ re-base issue