1. Modelling retrofit changes to the housing stock:
simulating decision making
and capturing geographic variation
Dr Timothy Lee
@MyBCU

2. Introduction Challenging 2050 target
80% reduction in CO2 emissions
Housing accounts for c.28% of current emissions
Therefore changes needed to existing housing if target is to be met
Stock models projecting uptake of energy saving measures can aid planning towards the 2050 target
@MyBCU

3. Shortcomings of current modelling
No geographic variation in model stocks
Eg: City centre flats have different retrofit options to off-gas rural properties
Uptake rates of retrofit measures are imposed
No consideration of the decision making of the dwelling owners who will actually drive the uptake of measures and therefore the energy and CO2 savings
@MyBCU

4. Geographically based housing stock model
Develop a test model for the North East of England (1.1 million homes)
Model dwelling stock variation across the region
Output area (OA) (c.150 homes)
-> Lower level super output area (LSOA) (c.700)
-> Medium level super output area (MSOA) (c. 3500)
-> Local authority (LA) (c. 80,000)
@MyBCU

5. Housing data
English Housing Survey data on 935 dwellings in the North East
Provides sufficient data for calculation of energy demand
Decile IMD rating and 4 level ruralness scale
Census Data - Output Area (OA)
Built form/detachment
IMD Decile
Ruralness
Heating fuel type
@MyBCU

6. Geographic energy data
DECC:
Experimental data for gas and electricity use at LSOA level
Data for gas and electricity use at MSOA level and LA level
1657 LSOAs in North East in 2011 Census
341 MSOAs in North East in 2011 Census
12 LAs in North East
@MyBCU

7. Geographic model results
@MyBCU

8. Understanding and Modelling Decision Making
Retrofit measures only installed when owners decide to install
Owner-occupiers
Energy Saving Trust (2009)
Element Energy (2008)
Discrete choice survey data
Multiple Criteria Decision Making Model
Agent based model
@MyBCU

9. Understanding and Modelling Decision Making
Simple additive weighting
Available technologies:
Fabric Improvements, Heating System Upgrades, Renewable Energy Technologies
Considers:
Price, Saving, Maintenance, Disruption, Subsidy, Taxation, Recommendation
@MyBCU

10. Adoption curves
@MyBCU

11. Next steps Improve behavioural understanding
Expand to all tenure types
Integrate agents with geographic model
@MyBCU

12. Thank you Any questions? timothy.lee@bcu.ac.uk @MyBCU