1. US Trade Strategy in Southern Africa: Beyond AGOA and the US-SACU FTA
Peter Draper
Development through Trade Project
The South African Institute of International Affairs
“South Africa’s window on the world”

2. The South African Institute of International Affairs
Overview
US Africa trade strategy: Current Contours
Drivers of change
Implications for Southern African integration?
The South African Institute of International Affairs
“South Africa’s window on the world”

3. A. US Africa trade strategy: Current Contours
Geopolitical framework
“War against terror”
UN Security Council
“Anchor states” and/or sub-regional leaders
“hub and spoke” approach
Host of development cooperation instruments
USAID (reincorporated into State Department)
Dedicated funds (eg: Millenium Challenge Account)
The South African Institute of International Affairs
“South Africa’s window on the world”

4. The South African Institute of International Affairs
Current Contours
Trade instruments
Generalised System of Preferences (GSP)
African Growth and Opportunities Act
Extended GSP (1800 products)
Textiles provisions especially important
Otherwise energy sector primary beneficiary
Democracy and good governance provisions
Free trade agreements
No uptake owing to “gold standard approach”
Trade, investment and cooperation agreements
Building-block approach to FTAs?
The South African Institute of International Affairs
“South Africa’s window on the world”

5. The South African Institute of International Affairs
Current Contours
Doha round (primary implications)
Duty free, quota free market access
33 African LDCs
US holding out (97% offer)
Agriculture subsidies
Cotton (“Cotton four”)
Blue box (5 major field crops)
Food aid (primarily Africa)
Non-agricultural market access
South Africa and G20 primary targets
Trade with the broader region is complementary
The South African Institute of International Affairs
“South Africa’s window on the world”

6. The South African Institute of International Affairs
B. Drivers of change
Doha impasse
Status quo ante
Not satisfactory for Africa
Renewed emphasis on FTAs
But without new US approach unlikely to have much impact on Southern Africa
Hence interest in TICAs – but what is their content?
The South African Institute of International Affairs
“South Africa’s window on the world”

7. The South African Institute of International Affairs
Drivers of change
GSP and AGOA?
Congressional review
Will GSP be extended on time?
What about “graduation”?
Will AGOA’s LDCs textiles provisions be extended?
Are China, India, and Pakistan challenging these provisions, and if so with what consequences?
The South African Institute of International Affairs
“South Africa’s window on the world”

8. C. Implications for Southern African integration?
Sustaining access to US markets may prove increasingly challenging
Reciprocity increasingly in focus
Can Southern Africa remain on the agenda?
Geopolitical nature of US FTAs
Expiration of trade promotion authority
Current US comprehensive approach will require:
domestic/regional harmonization
Deep “behind the border” commitments
Serious negotiating capacity
The South African Institute of International Affairs
“South Africa’s window on the world”

9. Implications for Southern African integration?
This implies pre-existing coherent, deep integration projects in the region
Otherwise harmonization to US standards
But this is not necessarily a bad thing…?
And would reinforce what Economic Partnership Agreements have set in motion
But will prove very challenging to deliver
The South African Institute of International Affairs
“South Africa’s window on the world”