1. Analysis of Network Outage Reports
Cybersecurity and Communications Reliability Division – Public Safety & Homeland Security Bureau
John Healy
February 2018

2. Data Source Database snapshot as of February 6, 2018
NORS Final Outage Reports through December 2017 were used in the analysis

3. Frequency Trend Analyses
Estimate past trend and seasonality effects
Estimates used in trend chart
Based on 3-year window (4Q14 – 3Q17)
Estimate most recent trend
Comparison with past trend
Based on 3-year window (1Q15 – 4Q17)
Calculate 4Q17 average monthly frequency
Test if significantly different from expected frequency based on past trend and seasonality effects

4. Frequency of Outages by Month
Monthly Trend 0.9%
(down from 1.1%)
4Q17 Monthly Average
(significantly lower than expected)

5. Outage Index – For All Outages Except DS3-Simplex
See ATIS Analysis of FCC-Reportable Service Outage Data for a description of the method used to calculate the outage index.

6. (significantly lower than expected)
Planned Maintenance
Monthly Trend
5.2%
(down from 5.4%)
4Q17 Monthly Average 383.0
(significantly lower than expected)

7. DS3 (Non-Simplex) Events
Monthly Trend 0.9%
(down from 1.1%)
4Q17 Monthly Average
(significantly lower than expected)

8. Big DS3 Outages

9. Big DS3 Outages Monthly Trend 1.0% (down from 1.4%)
4Q17 Monthly Average 69.0

10. (significantly lower than expected)
DS3-Simplex
Monthly Trend 1.2%
(down from 1.5%)
4Q17 Monthly Average 164
(significantly lower than expected)

11. Fiber Cut
Monthly Trend
flat 0% (unchanged)
4Q17 Monthly Average 213.3

12. E911 Monthly Trend flat 0.0% (down from 0.7%)
4Q17 Monthly Average 88.0

13. Very Large E911 Outages Monthly Trend flat 0% (unchanged)
4Q17 Monthly Average
1.7

14. (significantly lower than expected)
E911 – Phase 2 Events
Monthly Trend 2.0%
(down from 2.8%)
4Q17 Monthly Average 21.3
(significantly lower than expected)

15. Wireline
Monthly Trend
flat 0%
(unchanged 0%)
4Q17 Monthly Average 71.7
Wireline outages are all outages for which the Reason Reportable was at least 900,000 wireline user-minutes.

16. Wireless
Monthly Trend
1.0%
(unchanged)
4Q17 Monthly Average 215.0

17. VoIP Monthly Trend 5.5% (down from 6.0%) 4Q17 Monthly Average 280.7
(significantly lower than expected)

18. SS7
Monthly Trend -2.1%
(unchanged)
4Q17 Monthly Average 13.0

19. Malicious Events Monthly Trend -3.0% (up from -3.5%)
4Q17 Monthly Average 9.3

20. Malicious Activity
The figures for 2017 are through December.

21. (significantly lower than expected)
Hardware Failure
Monthly Trend 0.3%
(down from 0.5%)
4Q17 Monthly Average 398.7
(significantly lower than expected)

22. Environmental – External
Monthly Trend 0.5% (down from 0.7%)
4Q17 Monthly Average 232.7

23. Power Failure Monthly Trend flat 0% (down from 0.6%)
4Q17 Monthly Average 274.3

24. (significantly lower than expected)
Diversity Failure
Monthly Trend -0.6%
(down from 0%)
4Q17 Monthly Average 50.0
(significantly lower than expected)

25. Duration Trends: DS3 Non-Simplex
The duration of DS3 Non-Simplex outages has decreased from 2016 to 2017 (statistically significant using a Mann-Whitney test).

26. Duration Trends: E911
The duration of E911 outages is statistically unchanged in 2017 compared with 2016 (using a Mann-Whitney test). 7

27. Duration Trends: Wireline
The duration of wireline outages is statistically unchanged in 2017 compared with 2016 (using a Mann-Whitney test).

28. Duration Trends: Wireless
The duration of wireless outages is statistically unchanged in 2017 compared with 2016 (using a Mann-Whitney test).

29. Duration Trends: DS3 Simplex
The duration of DS3 Simplex outages is statistically unchanged in 2017 compared with 2016 (using a Mann-Whitney test).

30. Duration Trends: VoIP
The duration of VoIP outages has increased from 2016 to 2017 (statistically significant using a Mann-Whitney test).

31. Duration Trends: Other Special Facilities
The duration of other special facilities outages is statistically unchanged from 2016 to 2017 (using a Mann-Whitney test).

32. Test for Trend in Event Duration
Non-DS3-Simplex Outages
Data from 1/2015 thru 12/2017
DS3-Simplex Events Only
Data from 1/2015 thru 12/2017
Rank Correlation of duration with date is and is significant at the level
Rank Correlation of duration with date is .062 and is significant at the level
Conclusion: Durations of Non-DS3-Simplex Outages have shortened over the period from 1/2015 thru 12/2017.
Conclusion: Durations of DS3-Simplex Events have lengthened over the period from 1/2015 thru 12/2017.

33. NORS Transition Monthly NORS Coordinators Meetings NORS User Manual
FCC sent proposed changes to NORS manual to the NRSC for its feedback
DS3 Simplex threshold change implemented in December 2017
Implemented going from DS3s to OC3s in January 2018