1. Nations in the political future of Europe Scotland: Between Two Unions : Territorial transformations and the future of the construction of Europe
Prof Nicola McEwen
Politics and International Relations, University of Edinburgh
Co-Director, Centre on Constitutional Change

2. The UK’s uncertain future

3. Territorial Evolution of the UK
UK as a “state of unions”
Political unity & territorial diversity
UK as a plurinational state
Scotland as a stateless nation
preservation of Scottish national identity in church, legal system, education, local govt, sport,
Administrative devolution – Scottish Office as territorial office of UK government
‘The Union occupied a position of such unchallenged dominance in Scottish life between about 1750 and 1970 that there was no need to make a vigorous case on its behalf’
(Kidd, 2008: 25).

4. The Evolution of Devolution
Late 20th century nationalism > restructuring of the UK state
Devolution as expression of self-determination
Devolution as territorial management
Devolution as modernization & democratic renewal
Devolution as a platform & opportunity
‘We, gathered as the Scottish Constitutional Convention, do hereby acknowledge the sovereign right of the Scottish people to determine the form of Government best suited to their needs.’

5. From Devolution to Independence…?
Devolution created new opportunities for Scottish nationalism
2014 referendum came from SNP electoral success, not dissatisfaction with the way Scotland was governed
Scottish Parliament Seats, 2011

6. Recognising Scotland’s ‘Right to Decide’
“I believe passionately that it is in their (Scotland’s) interests to stay in the United Kingdom… but it is their choice, their vote”
PM David Cameron
Absence of codified constitution
Pluri-national character of the UK
Majoritarian political culture – respect for electoral mandate
Political pragmatism & (mis)calculation
Negotiated transfer of power > ‘the Edinburgh Agreement’
“we will continue to work together constructively in the light of the outcome, whatever it is, in the best interests of the people of Scotland and of the rest of the United Kingdom”
Edinburgh Agreement, 2012

7. “If more people vote ‘Yes’ than vote ‘No’ in the referendum, Scotland would become an independent country. This would not happen straight away. There would need to be negotiations between people representing Scotland and people representing the UK.” Joint Statement by Scottish & UK Governments, June 2014

8. Absence of cultural claims to Scottish independence
The Democratic Case:
“with independence, Scotland will always get the governments we vote for”
The Economic Case:
Existing wealth
Fiscal independence + full powers > more prosperity
Natural resource exploitation
The Social Case:
“far from pooling risk and sharing resources, the current Westminster government is intent on nothing less than the dismantling of the social security system”

9. Independence framed within an interdependent Europe
“Independence in Europe” – EU membership central to independence vision since late 1980s
Recognition and voice internationally – ‘a seat at the table’
Equality of status as an independent state, irrespective of inequalities of power/resources
Acceptance of inevitability and desirability of shared/pooled sovereignty

10. Independence as a negotiated partnership
Independence in EU & new partnership with rUK
Shared institutional arrangements, e.g.:
Sterling currency union
Common Travel Area & labour market
Strategic energy partnership
Defence and Security co-operation
Co-operation in public service delivery
Common research area
Cross-border functional bodies
‘National’ Lottery
BBC/SBC Joint Venture
Intergovernmental coordination modelled on BIC/Nordic Council
“with independence… Scotland and the rest of the UK would both stand on our own two feet – taking our own decisions, and working together on issues of common interest. Our relationship would be what it should always have been – a partnership of equals.”
Nicola Sturgeon MSP,
(then) Deputy First Minister
June 2013

11. Referendum Legacy in Scotland
SNP victorious in defeat
When the winners lose…. The electoral collapse of Scottish Labour
Continued dominance of constitutional politics
Political polarisation & resurgence of Scottish Unionism
@CCC_Research ::

12. Constitutional Rupture

13. Geography of the Brexit vote

14. When self-determination collides
“As things stand, Scotland faces the prospect of being taken out of the EU against our will. I regard that as democratically unacceptable... (and) represents a significant and a material change of the circumstances in which Scotland voted against independence in 2014.” Nicola Sturgeon, 24 June 2016
“Because we voted in the referendum as one United Kingdom, we will negotiate as one United Kingdom, and we will leave the European Union as one United Kingdom. There is no opt-out from Brexit.”
Theresa May, Oct 2016
The EU referendum was ‘a vote to restore, as we see it, our parliamentary democracy, national self-determination, and to become even more global and internationalist in action and in spirit’
PM’s Lancaster House speech
‘we didn’t vote to leave – we voted to remain. To be told that we have to leave, regardless, is tantamount to being told that our voice as a nation doesn’t matter’
FM, July 2016

15. EU-UK Negotiations
Exclusion of devolved governments/devolution dimension from UK-EU negotiations
United (for now…) opposition to Withdrawal Agreement
Deep concern at uncertainty surrounding future UK-EU relationship
Deep concern at the lasting impact of Brexit on autonomy and authority of devolved institutions
“With what has happened over the past two years – from the decision that risked taking us out of the EU against our will, to the way in which the Scottish government, in trying to represent Scotland’s interests, has been sidelined, to the way in which the powers of this parliament have been undermined – the case for independence has grown stronger each and every day.”
Nicola Sturgeon, Nov 2018

16. Towards a new independence referendum?
Brexit as catalyst for pro-independence mobilization
Independence in EU?
eased by shift from ‘internal enlargement’ problem to accession process???
Brexit as a barrier to independence:
Independence almost unthinkable outside of EU internal market
Independence almost unthinkable outside of UK internal market

17. What does the future hold?

18. Further info
Professor Nicola McEwen, University of Edinburgh ESRC Centre on Constitutional Change