1. Corn/Biofuels Outlook
Aug. 10, 2015
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
91.9
97.3
95.4
90.6
88.9
Yield
(bu./acre)
147.2
123.1
158.1
171.0
168.8
Production
(mil. bu.)
12,360
10,755
13,829
14,216
13,686
Beg. Stocks
1,128
989
821
1,232
1,772
Imports 29
160 36 30
Total Supply
13,517
11,904
14,686
15,477
15,488
Feed & Residual
4,557
4,315
5,034
5,300
Ethanol
5,000
4,641
5,134
5,200
5,250
Food, Seed, & Other
1,428
1,397
1,369
1,355
1,375
Exports
1,543
730
1,917
1,850
Total Use
12,528
11,083
13,454
13,705
13,775
Ending Stocks
1,713
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
6.22
6.89
4.46
3.70
3.65
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. Corn Good to Excellent Ratings
Nationwide, 70% of the corn crop is rated Good to Excellent
Last year, 73%
Source: USDA-NASS, Aug. 2, 2015

4. Early Corn Yield Estimate

5. Early Corn Yield Estimate
Top: 2015 yield estimate
Bottom: Change from last year
Units: bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

6. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6

7. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: ISU Extension

8. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: ISU Extension

9. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 9 9

10. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

11. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

12. Corn Advance Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

13. Crude Oil Prices
Sources: EIA and CME

14. Strength of the U.S. Dollar
Source: Federal Reserve

15. Corn Grind for Ethanol

16. Ethanol Stocks
Source: EIA

17. Ethanol Exports
Source: EIA

18. Biodiesel Production
Source: EIA

19. Renewable Fuels Standard

20. U.S. DDG Supply and Use 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Production
(mil. metric tons)
36.3
33.5
36.6
37.1
37.2
Imports
0.4
0.5
Total Supply
36.7
33.9
37.5
37.6
Domestic
29.1
25.7
25.1
27.0
27.6
Exports
7.6
8.2
12.0
10.5
10.0
Total Use
Price
($ per ton)
217
256
205
158
Source: USDA-ERS 20 20

21. DDG Exports
Source: USDA

22. DDG Exports to China
Source: USDA

23. Current Corn Futures
3.91
3.80
Source: CME Group, 8/10/2015

24. 2014/15 Crop Margins

25. 2015/16 Crop Margins

26. Thoughts for 2015 and Beyond
Supply/demand concerns
Market was debating whether this year’s rain makes grain
USDA indicates it does
Exports retreating
Negative margins for crops
2014/15
USDA
2015/16
Futures
(8/10/15)
2016/17
Corn
$3.70
$3.65
$3.80
$3.91
Soybeans
$10.05
$9.15
$9.45
$8.99

27. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: