1. University of Warwick, UK
Brexit
Andrew Oswald
University of Warwick, UK
I would like to acknowledge that this work is joint with coauthors Federica Liberini, Eugenio Proto, and Michela Redoano.

2. What caused the Brexit decision?

4. Latest YouGov Data

5. Latest YouGov Data
In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the EU?
Feb August 2016
RIGHT 43% 44%
WRONG 44% 44%
DON’T KNOW 12% 11%

6. Hypothesis 1

7. Hypothesis 1
The old caused it.

8. Hypothesis 1
The old caused it.

9. Hypothesis 1
The old caused it.

10. Hypothesis 1
The old caused it.

11. "Why did millions vote to leave
"Why did millions vote to leave? …the big gap between those over 50 and those below in support for Leave."
Ben Chu, The Independent, 26 June 2016

12. Hypothesis 2

13. Hypothesis 2
Brits are anti-foreigner.

14. Hypothesis 2
Brits are anti-foreigner.

15. Hypothesis 2
Brits are anti-foreigner.

16. Hypothesis 3

17. Hypothesis 3
Brits felt financially hard-up, and lashed out at the EU.

18. Hypothesis 3
Brits felt financially hard-up, and lashed out at the EU.

20. "I don’t think Brexit would have happened if it hadn’t been for the political and economic events of the preceding 10 years. People…felt squeezed." Alistair Darling, former Chancellor of the Exchequer, The Guardian, 13 September 2017

21. "I don’t think Brexit would have happened if it hadn’t been for the political and economic events of the preceding 10 years. People…felt squeezed." Alistair Darling, former Chancellor of the Exchequer, The Guardian, 13 September 2017

22. We examine these ideas

23. We examine these ideas
The source of data is Understanding Society A random sample of 8000 people in the run-up to June 23rd.

24. Probability of voting Brexit = f(age, income, gender, education, region, etc)

25. Question Wording
‘Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?’
Options
1 Remain a member of the European Union
2 Leave the European Union

26. We conclude that Brexit:

27. We conclude that Brexit:
was not really about the old outvoting the young

28. We conclude that Brexit:
was not really about the old outvoting the young was not really about people being anti-foreigner.

29. We find:
Only the very young were hugely Remain.

30. The age effect on Leavers

31. Not predominantly about ‘foreigners’

32. Not predominantly about ‘foreigners’
Being ‘white British’ led to people voting about 6 percentage points more in favour of Leave.

33. Instead:

34. A key predictor turns out to be:

35. A key predictor turns out to be:
Question wording:
How well would you say you yourself are managing financially these days? Would you say you are...

36. A key predictor turns out to be:
Living comfortably
Doing alright
Just about getting by
Finding it quite difficult
Finding it very difficult

37. A key predictor turns out to be:
Living comfortably
Doing alright
Just about getting by
Finding it quite difficult
Finding it very difficult

38. A key predictor turns out to be:
Living comfortably
Doing alright
Just about getting by
Finding it quite difficult
Finding it very difficult

39. A key predictor turns out to be:
Living comfortably
Doing alright
Just about getting by
Finding it quite difficult
Finding it very difficult

40. A key predictor turns out to be:
Living comfortably
Doing alright
Just about getting by
Finding it quite difficult
Finding it very difficult

41. A key predictor turns out to be:
Living comfortably
Doing alright
Just about getting by
Finding it quite difficult
Finding it very difficult

42. Britain’s actual feelings in 2016

43. Britain’s actual feelings in 2016
Living comfortably (35.0% of people)
Doing alright (39.7%)
Just about getting by (19.0%)
Finding it quite difficult (4.7%)
Finding it very difficult (1.6%)

44. Real wages in the UK from 2005 to 2017

45. What our analysis finds is this:

46. Financial feelings were important in the Brexit decision

47. Interestingly, actual income was less so

48. Financial feelings were important in the Brexit decision

49. Some other patterns

50. Some other patterns
Having a university degree: you were far more likely to vote Remain

51. Some other patterns
Having a university degree: you were far more likely to vote Remain
Being a woman: you were somewhat more likely to vote Remain

52. Some other patterns
Having a university degree: you were far more likely to vote Remain
Being a woman: you were somewhat more likely to vote Remain
There were regional effects

53. Some other patterns
Having a university degree: you were far more likely to vote Remain
Being a woman: you were somewhat more likely to vote Remain
There were regional effects
Having children, or being unemployed, or being in a rural area: did not make much difference.

54. What about immigration views?

55. What about immigration views?
We cannot study that directly, and it is perhaps too close to a version of the dependent variable.

56. In conclusion

57. In conclusion
Financial ‘feelings’
University education or not

58. In conclusion Financial ‘feelings’ University education or not
These seem to have been the largest influences.

59. University of Warwick, UK
Brexit
Andrew Oswald
University of Warwick, UK
I would like to acknowledge that this work is joint with coauthors Federica Liberini, Eugenio Proto, and Michela Redoano.
The paper is downloadable from