1. Hugo Denier van der Gon & Tinus Pulles PM update EU 2000 PM2.5 Inventory project Task Force on Emission Inventories and Projections' (TFEIP) Expert Panel on Agriculture and Nature, Průhonice, 26 April 2006

2. Outline Background of the project Approach Expected results Time table Discussion points

3. Background The European Commission is preparing for a revision of the National Emission Ceilings Directive in 2006. - NEC establishes national limits on the emission that can be emitted in a particular target year considers introducing national emission ceilings for PM2.5. To enable this, an accurate emission inventory of primary PM2.5 in the 25 EU Member States, acceding countries (Bulgaria, Romania) and Candidate Countries (Croatia, Turkey, FYR of Macedonia) is needed. Consortium TNO (NL, lead organisation) NETCEN / AEAT (UK) IVL (SW) Related project: PM2.5 Guidebook update commissioned by EC / DG Env.

4. Approach: Build Generalized Inventory in relational database structure Activity_ID Sector Location Time Activities AR-Value Activity_ID Technology_ID Penetration Select_Techn EF_ID Technology_ID Pollutant EF-Value EmissionFactors Technology_ID Description Technologies To improve transparency & direct link to Guidebook development Allowing identification of SNAP technologies and NFR sector codes Select_Techn links Activity to Technology allowing country-specific EFs Easy transformation of the data to other formats (e.g. RAINS)

5. Approach: First order draft inventory Activity_ID Sector Location Time Activities AR-Value Activity_ID Technology_ID Penetration Select_Techn EF_ID Technology_ID Pollutant EF-Value EmissionFactors Technology_ID Description Technologies Derived from the CEPMEIP study

6. Approach: First order draft inventory and uncertainty analysis Activity_ID Sector Location Time Activities AR-Value Activity_ID Technology_ID Penetration Select_Techn EF_ID Technology_ID Pollutant EF-Value EmissionFactors Technology_ID Description Technologies Key Source analysis Monte Carlo simulation to identify the uncertainties for each country the most important contributions to this uncertainty Objective direct the national experts attention to the major problems

7. Approach: Liaison with Guidebook project and TFEIP co-chairs Activity_ID Sector Location Time Activities AR-Value Activity_ID Technology_ID Penetration Select_Techn EF_ID Technology_ID Pollutant EF-Value EmissionFactors Technology_ID Description Technologies

8. Approach: Consultation with national experts Activity_ID Sector Location Time Activities AR-Value Activity_ID Technology_ID Penetration Select_Techn EF_ID Technology_ID Pollutant EF-Value EmissionFactors Technology_ID Description Technologies

9. Approach: Second order draft based on comments & additional information of national experts Including a second draft Key source analysis Uncertainty Report, describing the inventory Including a second draft Key source analysis Uncertainty Report, describing the inventory Activity_ID Sector Location Time Activities AR-Value Activity_ID Technology_ID Penetration Select_Techn EF_ID Technology_ID Pollutant EF-Value EmissionFactors Technology_ID Description Technologies One day workshop ? Review of 2 nd O Draft, workshop & screening result in Final PM2.5 inventory

10. Expected result EU25 wide PM2.5 Emission Inventory that is: Transparent Comparable Consistent Complete Accurate Provides all necessary information on key sources and uncertainties Can be used to develop emission ceilings

11. The expected result the EU25 PM2.5 Inventory and the RAINS model IIASAs NFR to RAINS link table Inventory data for RAINS Activity_ID Sector Location Time Activities AR-Value Activity_ID Technology_ID Penetration Select_Techn EF_ID Technology_ID Pollutant EF-Value EmissionFactors Technology_ID Description Technologies For each NFR and fuel

12. Time line 2006 March / April Consultation with TFEIP expert panels Preparation of first order draft activity data done emission factors in progress Pre-first order ready

14. Time line 2006 March / April Consultation with TFEIP expert panels Preparation of first order draft activity data done emission factors in progress May / June / July Consultation with National Experts July / August Preparation of second order draft September / October Discussion of Second order draft

15. What should be included in the inventory? For combustion processes good defaults available. For all non-combustion processes with PM2.5 fraction is 0-80% of PM10 we have a poor understanding. Research focus has been PM10, too little and possibly not applicable data for PM2.5 (e.g. the US situation may not apply). Excluded resuspension – cannot exclude arable farming Examples of uncertain sources: handling of bulk materials, construction sites, diffuse industrial emissions, agricultural management, wind blown dust from arable farming […….In the literature the PM2.5 fraction in PM10 soil varies from 0 – 50%] Here to introduce & pick up the state of the art and/or consensus concerning agricultural PM emissions – for what is lacking we will make a proposition PM10 = PM2.5 + PM2.5-10 - but do we know the split? All emissions where the hand of man is involved

16. Fraction PM2.5 arable farming emissions Goossens et al. 2001 - Field experiment at Grönheim (Germany) local emission (either by tillage or wind erosion ) D50 always > 30 um. Chandler et al. (2002) (Washington state, US): 30-55% of PM10 is PM2.5.indicating significant air quality impacts by wind erosion on this region. Matsumura et al. (1996) found a PM2.5/PM10 ratio of 0.18 ± 0.12 for dust measurements at the downwind edge of a field during harvesting and land preparation activities. Varies from 0 – 20 – 50%

17. PM2.5 from arable farming – What can we assume for the Netherlands? PS. Crustal material is not well-defined in emission inventories. So you may know the fraction in PM2.5 but w/o the absolute emission strength…… PM2.5 Fraction of crustal material in PM10 (recalculated from Visser et al. 2001).

18. Thank you for your attention! More info, remarks? Hugo.deniervandergon@tno.nl Tinus.pulles@tno.nl