1. Toward a WMO Lead Center for Near Term Climate Prediction
March 2014 ET-OPSLS Meeting
Noted that CBS-15 had encouraged GPC Exeter to prepare a written submission to CBS and CCl recommending how multi-annual to decadal predictions (= Near Term Climate Predictions, NTCP) might be incorporated into the Climate Services Information System of the GFCS
Request made in the context of the multi-model decadal forecast exchange hosted by GPC Exeter
GPC Exeter tabled a proposal recommending the establishment of infrastructure similar to that of the WMO Lead Center for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble (LC-LRFMME) and its 12 GPCs
ET reviewed this first submission and noted that there would be challenges in ensuring judicious use of
the predictions, in promoting
understanding of their limitations
and in harmonizing them with
national decadal outlooks
prepared by NMHSs  proposal
for LC-NTCP discussed at
CCl-16 (Jul 2014), CBS-Ext 14
(Sep 2014) and Cg-17 (May
2015)

2. Outcome of Technical Comission Meetings
Progress welcomed, ET asked to finalize roles and functions of LC-NTCP for consideration by CBS-16
ET asked to consider following concerns:
- Demonstration of adequacy of real-time multi-annual to decadal forecasts
for operational use
- Harmonization of output from a LC-NTCP with national decadal outlooks
prepared by NMHSs
- How to ensure judicious use of the predictions and enhance user
understanding of their limitations
Since the Exeter (2014) meeting, two further initiatives that support establishment of infrastructure for real time NTCP have started:
- WCRP/WGSIP Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP)
- WCRP Grand Challenge of Near Term Climate Prediction (GC-NTCP)
Recommended that ET harmonise planning with these initiatives

3. May 2016 ET-OPSLS Meeting
Concerns expressed by Technical Commissions viewed as addressed (e.g. Year 2-5 decadal skill not worse than DJF seasonal forecasts initialized in Nov)
Data access concerns viewed as being addressed in the same way as for seasonal forecasts  LC-NTCP would be password protected, allowing access only to NMHSs, RCCs, GPCs and supporting research centres
ET as a whole endorsed the concept of a LC-NTCP and recommended that the activity should proceed
Hindcast verification (deterministic, later probabilistic) will be an immediate requirement
Key difference from LC-LRFMME: instead of CBS-approved GPCs, forecasts come from LC-managed “contributing centres”