1. The Road to Zero: Energy System Challenges and Opportunities
Simon Harrison
Mott MacDonald

4. What matters for the energy system
Capacity to meet peak demand
Ability to manage peak supply (new – renewables)
Total energy requirements
Getting energy to the point where consumers use it
Balancing supply and demand minute by minute, 24/7. Big issue for electricity, less so for gas and hydrogen
Reacting to consumers who now generate and store energy, and can potentially contribute to managing system costs and performance
Managing across vectors (electricity, gas, hydrogen, liquid fuels, heat, coolth) – (mostly new).
Embracing, rather than being frustrated by or frustrating, the digital transformation in society at large (new)

5. ZEV Capacity and Energy Challenge - electricity
Numbers not too frightening
22-30% more electricity by 2050
11% more generating capacity by 2050
But the assumptions are…..
Smart charging and V2G essential
Consumer buy-in essential
Fragmented industry will need intense coordination
This comes as part of the biggest change in electricity since the 19th century
Source of numerical data: National Grid FES 2018

6. ZEV capacity and energy challenge - hydrogen
Up to 30 TWh by 2050
Equivalent to about 10% of electricity today
Heating may move to hydrogen on same timeframe
Huge increase in hydrogen usage from today
New sources of hydrogen?
Carbon captured from power generation reformed with natural gas
Electrolysis from overplanting of variable renewables
Policy coordination needed
Whole new industries needed!
Source of numerical data: National Grid FES 2018

7. Local delivery
A 7kW (32 A) charger is 5-6 times the average domestic demand for a house. This seems to be the evolving auto industry standard
More than a few on a feeder will blow the supply fuse at the local substation
Smart charging and V2G can help a lot provided coordination is in place and consumers use them
Without this major local electricity network reinforcements will be needed, rationing could become an issue
Consumer trials at this level only just starting
We lack a hydrogen infrastructure, some blending with natural gas is possible but future direction currently unclear. Making hydrogen locally might be an answer….but would need a lot of electricity

8. …some other major uncertainties
Vehicle sharing
Shared fleets would probably charge centrally, and connect to the 11 kV or higher system, avoiding need for low voltage reinforcement
Fleet owners would probably respond to tariff signals to optimise time of charging and V2G operation
Sharing may well take off after a lot of investment has been made in low voltage networks and on-street, workplace and home chargers, stranding some of that investment
Superfast charging
350 kW chargers exist, 400 kW+ are in development – a fuel station experience
This might imply 5-10MW loads, would they be constrained to strong electricity network locations?
Might the market evolve so superfast dominates, negating the need for domestic, street and workplace charging and possibly stranding that investment?