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Ag.no.05 Eurostat Annual Report overview - A64 elements

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1 Ag.no.05 Eurostat Annual Report overview - A64 elements
Doc.A6465/18/05(a) Ag.no.05 Eurostat Annual Report overview - A64 elements Working Group on Articles 64 and 65 of the Staff Regulations Meeting in Luxembourg March 2018

2 Content of this presentation
Reminder of timeline and report structure Reminder who is affected Overview of A64 elements in report: JBLI CC for Intra-EU staff CC for Pensioners CC for Extra-EU staff Link to other presentations in WG agenda

3 Similar production timeline to previous
A year-long exercise! Legal requirements respected 1st Extra-EU report via Ares (Aug-Jan) Interim report via Ares January) 2nd Extra-EU report via Ares (Feb-Jun) Annual report via Ares July) Analytical categories report onto website

4 Subsequent steps also similar timeline
Since 2013 reform, automatic adoption procedure: Interim report: only if % change exceeds threshold Annual report: all values are updated Eurostat calculation is followed by: DGHR budget impact report internal administrative processes Council WPSR for information Communication in Official Journal pay slips INTERIM ANNUAL n/a June (retro) December (retro)

5 Report structure and content

6 Intra-EU intermediate report structure and content
Fourth Intra-EU interim report under Staff Regulations as amended October 2013 Similar transparent content as last year's report, some new tables MAIN TEXT 6 pages 0 tables Annex 1 - SI 5 pages 4 tables Annex 2 - JBLI 3 pages 6 tables Annex 3 - CC 9 pages 5 tables Annex 4 - CC+SI 1 page 24 15 See A65 discussion

7 Extra-EU intermediate reports structure and content
7th and 8th Extra-EU interim reports under Staff Regulations as amended October 2013 Similar transparent content as last year's reports, more explanatory text Period Main text Annex Aug-Jan 4 pages 13 pages 13 tables (6 months) Feb-Jun 11 pages 11 tables (5 months)

8 Did 2017 Intermediate Reports result in CC changes?
Duty stations Changes signalled Intra-EU staff 33 (ie.31) - Pensioners 28 (ie.26) Extra-EU (1st) 145 (ie. 144) 8* + 18 Extra-EU (2nd) 9* + 36 * CC > 100

9 Annual Report structure and content
Fourth annual report under Staff Regulations as amended October 2013 Similar transparency content to last year's report, some new tables, minor format improvements MAIN TEXT pages 10 tables Appendix 1a - SI pages 21 tables Appendix 1b - JBLI pages tables Appendix 1c - CC pages tables 113 pages 52 tables See A65 discussion +2 = impact SHE +6 = 3x AnnAdj, a, (PPP)

10 Who/what is affected by the JBLI
Remuneration in Brussels/Luxembourg (+ everywhere) of: Active EU staff (permanent, temporary, contract) of EU institutions - eg. in EU Representations, Joint Research Centres, Extra-EU Delegations - and of EU Agencies Seconded teachers at European Schools Retired EU staff, plus transfers into/from EU pension scheme By collaboration: Staff of other international organisations (UN, OECD, EPO, EuroControl, EIB, ECB, …)

11 Who/what is affected by the CC
>400,000 people Who/what is affected by the CC Remuneration outside Brussels/Luxembourg of: Active EU staff (permanent, temporary, contract) of EU institutions - eg. in EU Representations, Joint Research Centres, Extra-EU Delegations - and of EU Agencies Seconded teachers at European Schools Retired EU staff, plus transfers into/from EU pension scheme Other: Researcher mobility under FP7; Education mobility under LLL (LdV, Comenius, Eurasmus); Equalisation coefficients in Joint Sickness Insurance Scheme; Mission expenses (DSA and hotel ceilings) By collaboration: Staff of other international organisations (UN, OECD, EPO, EuroControl, EIB, ECB, …)

12 Numerical example (constant PPP fluctuating XR)
NB. Only PPP component of CC is relevant: exchange rate impact cancels out CC = PPP ÷ ER so it can be noted that when Euro salaries are paid in local currency and have the CC applied to them, the exchange rate impact is effectively removed to leave only the price level impact, as can be seen in the following diagram. Salary in Brussels (in Euro) Exchange rate (Euro to currency) Correction coefficient (= PPP ÷ Exchange rate) Salary in duty station (in currency) Numerical example (constant PPP fluctuating XR) 1000 EUR x 77.1% (= / 4.160) x = local 1000 EUR x 71.2% (= / 4.500) x = local 1000 EUR x 82.2% (= / 3.900) x = local

13 Annual update 2017 (outside Brussels/Luxembourg)
Real GSI % PPP change % JBLI % AnnAdj % "Implicit index" = total price effect = JBLI x PPP change

14 Estimate annual budgetary impact (DGHR)
NEW for PPT Estimate annual budgetary impact (DGHR) Ch. V Other Ch. Total 1st Extra-EU interim report CC +0.20 mn € .. Intra-EU interim report CC 2nd Extra-EU interim report CC +0.90 mn € Intra-EU annual report CC +2.80 mn € +1.60 mn € +4.40 mn € Extra-EU annual report CC -0.04 mn € Sub-total +3.86 mn € +5.46 mn €

15 Joint Belgium-Luxembourg Index
Main report Table 3 (COICOP 12-groups) Appendix 1b Table 3.1 & 3.1a (Belgium HICP dwell.wgt) Table 3.2 & 3.2a (Luxembourg CPI dwell.wgt) Staff numbers in Brussels and Luxembourg In red = new this year

16 Calculating the Joint Belgium-Luxembourg Index
Brussels FBS 80BH Brussels BXL/LUX c.80% JBLI GLOBAL EU staff t0 Belgium BXL/LUX HICP 80BH JBLI 80BH Luxembourg CPI 80BH Luxembourg Calculating the Joint Belgium-Luxembourg Index c.20% EU staff t0 Eurostat

17

18 Elements of JBLI change 2016-2017
Reweight HICP Belgium (nat→BXL, incl. owners) ► = -0.4 x 80% Reweight CPI Luxembourg (nat→BXL, incl. owners) ► = -0.2 x 20% = -0.36

19 Intra-EU staff Main report Appendix 1c
In red = new this year Intra-EU staff Main report Table 5 (2017 CC = 2017 PPP ÷ 2017 XR) Table 4 (2017 PPP PPP + % change PPP) Appendix 1c Table 4.3 (decomposition of % change PPP) Table 4.1 ( group PPP + WGT) Table 4.2 (2017 rent data) Table 5.4 & 5.4a (decomposition of % change rent PPP +glob) Table 5.5 & 5.6 (effect of rent on total CC + PPP) Graph (rank) HICP

20 Eurostat

21 Intra-EU staff CC values
CC July 2017 Duty station 50 – 70 2 BG, RO 70 – 75 3 CZ, EL, SK 75 – 80 6 HR, CY, LV, LT, HU, PL 80 – 90 5 EE, ES, MT, PT, SI 90 – 100 DEBer, DEBon, DEKar, ITRom, ITVar 100 – 110 4 DEMun, NL, AT, UKCul 110 – 125 IE, FR, FI 125 – 145 DK, SE, UKLon Total 31 excluding BXL=LUX=100

22 Intra-EU staff PPP changes (AVG +1.7%)
Duty station X < 0 2 ITRom, UKCul 0 ≤ X < 1.7 18 DK, DEBer, DEBon, DEKar, IE, EL, ES, FR, HR, ITVar, CY, MT, NL, AT, RO, SI, FI, UKLon 1.7 ≤ X < 3.4 5 DEMun, LV, PL, PT, SK 3.4 ≤ X 6 BG, CZ, EE, LT, HU, SE Total 31 excluding BXL=LUX

23 Elements of 2016-17 PPP change for Intra-EU staff
No change to basic calculation methodology Some standard elements: - Relative movement of consumer price indices - Replace 2x validated ECP consumer price surveys - Replace 1x validated rent survey (6 year average) Some one-off elements: - New SHS taper weights in 6 year model Not this year: - Education PPP, Healthcare PPP, SHS dwelling weights, FBS expenditure weights

24 Some BH no longer covered by ECP…
Bxl Wgt 25 Refuse and sewerage collection; other dwelling services 0.50 31 Repair of furniture, furnishings and floor coverings 0.04 50 Combined passenger transport 0.15 59 Major durables for indoor and outdoor recreation 0.43 60 Maintenance and repair of other major durables 0.02 70 Package holidays 1.89 79 Insurance 2.25 80 Other services including financial services 0.51 =8  total 5.79

25 Pensioners Main report Appendix 1c In red = new this year
Table 7 (2017 CC = 2017 PPP ÷ 2017 XR) Table 6 (2017 PPP PPP + % change PPP) Appendix 1c Table 6.3 (decomposition of % change PPP) Table 6.1 ( group PPP + WGT) Table 6.2 (2017 rent ratio) Table 7.1 & 7.2 (effect of rent on total CC + PPP) Table 7.3 (compare Pensioner CC with Staff CC)

26 Pensioner CC values CC value July 2017 Duty station 45 – 65 4
BG, HU, PL, RO 65 – 75 5 CZ, HR, LV, LT, SK 75 – 85 EE, EL, CY, PT, SI 85 – 100 3 ES, IT, MT 100 – 110 DE, FR, NL, AT 110 – 125 IE, FI, SE, UK 125 – 145 1 DK Total 26 excluding BXL=LUX=100

27 Pensioner PPP changes (AVG +2.5%)
Duty station X < 0 0 ≤ X < 2.5 15 DK, IE, EL, FR, HR, IT, CY, MT, NL, AT, PL, RO, SI, SK, FI 2.5 ≤ X < 5.0 10 BG, CZ, DE, EE, ES, LV, HU, PT, SE, UK 5.0 ≤ X 1 LT Total 26 excluding BXL=LUX In bold = July 2016 or 2017 CC value > 100 ie. applied

28 Elements of 2016-17 PPP change for Pensioners
No change to basic calculation methodology Some standard elements: - Movement in Staff PPP ie. relative movement of consumer price indices; replace 2x validated ECP consumer price surveys; replace 1x validated rent survey (6 year average); 2017: new SHS taper weights - Update capital/country rent ratios Aggregated using specific FBS expenditure weights (results of 2013 survey already integrated for the 2016 exercise)

29 Extra-EU staff Main report Appendix 1c
Table 9 (2016 CC = 2016 PPP ÷ 2016 XR) Table 8 (2016 PPP PPP + % change) Appendix 1c Table 9.1 (% change CC>100)

30 Extra-EU staff CC values
CC value July 2017 Duty station n/a 12 X < 75 47 75 ≤ X < 100 59 100 ≤ X < 125 19 125 ≤ X 7 Total 144 excluding BXL=LUX=100 >100 = 26 = 18%

31 Extra-EU staff PPP changes (AVG +4.7%)
Duty station ALL CC > 100 X < 0 38 Min -15.0% 8 0 ≤ X < 4.7 61 11 4.7 ≤ X < 9.4 21 3 9.4 ≤ X 24 Max +38.1% 4 Max +36.8% Total 144 26

32 Extra-EU methodology vs Intra-EU
CC calculated on a monthly basis, and presented in two Intermediate Reports plus the Annual Report. New CC apply once PPP variation from existing value exceeds 5%. Application of CC is at discretion of staff, thus CC is generally only requested if value >100. A gradual switch to Intra-EU 80BH classification has begun. New price survey data and new FBS weights will integrate healthcare and education. (see agenda point 9.3) A research proposal to take out-of-area expenditure into account was presented at 2017 WG: application is not yet authorised. (see agenda point 10.4)

33 22 new UN survey data introduced…
For Intermediate Report Feb-June 2017: Bolivia, Brazil, Central African Republic, Democratic Republic Congo, Ecuador, Guatemala, Guyana, Honduras, India, Israel, Kenya, Madagascar, Mozambique, Nicaragua, Peru, Russia, Samoa, Sierra Leone, Tanzania, Trinidad & Tobago, Zambia …plus 12 other new PPP data 7x ISRP countries AUS, CAN, JAP, KOR, MEX, NZL, USAWDC 4x ECP countries IS, NO, CHBer, CHGen, TR (not AL, BH, MK, ME, RS this time)

34 2016-2017 CPI sources UN (NSI) 86 85 NSI direct 37 40 ESTAT HICP 5 IMF
n/a 12 9 144 Change CPI source for New York From US national to NY regional

35 Other remarks At July 2017, no value published for 12 duty stations due to political/economic uncertainties Afghanistan, Bosnia-Hercegovina (BanjaLuka), Indonesia (BandaAceh), Iran, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, South Sudan, Syria, Venezuela, West Bank/Gaza Strip, Yemen

36 Annual Adjustment 2017 Main report Appendix 1c
AA = GSI x JBLI (Brussels/Luxembourg) Appendix 1c AA = GSI x JBLI x PPP change Table 4bis (Intra-EU staff) Table 6bis (Pensioners) Table 8bis (Extra-EU staff) = new tables for report

37 Analytical category report structure and content
Published on dedicated section Fourth such report under Staff Regulations as amended October 2013 Similar transparency content to last year's report 35 categories (global; 12xCOICOP; rent; global excl.rent; +20) Section Coverage Pages Tables Intro - 1 Annex 1 (STF) 33 4 Annex 2 (PEN) 28 Annex 3 (JBLI) 10 3

38 Links to later presentations in agenda
Agenda point 6 - dissemination Agenda point 8 - Intra-EU lessons from 2017 exercise; assessment of system ; FBS; EARS Agenda point 10 - Price statistics briefing Agenda point 9 - Extra-EU lessons from 2017 exercise; assessment of system ; preparation of 2018 Agenda point 7 - International collaboration Agenda point 12 - documents for public

39 Thank you for your attention!

40 Hypothetical CC Luxembourg
Staff 2016: : 111.9 ECP price surveys ECP price surveys Education PPP (schools) Education PPP (schools) Health PPP (hospitals) Health PPP (hospitals) EARS rent surveys EARS rent surveys SHS 2016 weight SHS 2016 weight FBS 2010 pool weight FBS 2010 pool weight Pensioners 2016: : 114.4 Staff PPP Staff PPP calculated rent ratio 0.96 calculated rent ratio 1.00 FBS 2013 weight FBS 2013 weight Main reason for difference = rent PPP. Main reason for increase = Rent PPP increase.

41 ECP concerns received from duty stations in Eastern Europe…
See agenda point 10.1(c) ECP concerns received from duty stations in Eastern Europe… Food quality: is brand content identical in all MS? Primarily a legal issue! Commission study announced 2017 …will monitor closely Even if confirmed, CC impact is small Food expenditure represents c.15% total weight Very few brand-only food items Mitigation is possible, if required Replace brand-only item definitions with generic definitions which include quality parameters

42 Out-of-area consumption study
See agenda point 10.4 Out-of-area consumption study First document presented at WG 2017 Commitment to present extended method document for technical approval instead of Brussels, consider regional "consumer hub" (in future, identify via FBS) In future, consider 80BH in-area, 80BH out-area? Budget impact assessment by DGHR being done Legal assessment by DGHR being done

43 See agenda points 7 and 9.3 New York, New York Unusually, two Extra-EU duty stations in USA (Washington + New York) Switzerland (Bern + Geneva); China (Beijing + Hong Kong SAR); Some special cases: France (Nouvelle Calédonie); Bosnia (Sarajevo + Banja Luka); Indonesia (Jakarta + Banda Aceh) Survey data for USA-Washington = ECP (OECD), but for USA-New York = UNICSC Last NYC survey 2010 (proprietary methodology) New NYC survey 2016 (harmonised methodology … but outlet choice) Goal: next survey with BLS in similar way as Washington


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