1. The Great Recession – A Historical Perspective

2. Headlines

3. Historical Perspective
Recession Year
Peak Unemployment
Trough of GDP change
Duration (months)
2001
6.4
-0.6% 8
1990
7.1
-1.2%
1981
10.8
-3.4% 16
1980
7.8
-2.4% 6
1973
9.0
-4.3%
Average
7.0
-2.3%

4. The Great Recession Worse than your average recession.
Duration: 18 months (Dec 2007-June 2009)
7 months longer than average
Peak Unemployment: 10.2%
3.2% worse than average
Trough GDP change: -4.1%
1.8% worse than average

5. The Scariest Jobs Chart Ever

6. NY Times Headline

7. How bad was it?

8. Great Recession vs. Great Depression
(1929 – 1933)
Great Recession
(2007 –2009)
GDP Growth (%)
-29%
-4.2%
Unemployment (%)
25%
10.2%
Inflation (%)
-25%
+2%
DJIA Change (%)
-89%
-54%
Bank Failures (#)
9,096
(50% of total)
137
(1% of total) 8 8 8

9. The Recession is over?

10. The Recession is over?

11. The recession is over? Officially ended in June 2009.
Means the worst (trough) is over, does not mean the pain is over!
We had two consecutive quarters of GDP growth.
Still have unemployment of 6.6%, 10.2 million unemployed workers.
Lots of serious economic/social issues

12. Total Private Employment – U.S.

13. Total Private Employment - Ohio

14. Unemployment Ohio/National

15. Unemployment for College Grads

16. How large is the output gap?

17. What has recovered? Exports

18. Corporate Profits

19. Stock Market

20. What has not recovered Housing Prices

21. Encouraging Sign for the Future

22. Summary
Recovery is not as strong as we would like, but we are on the right path.
Leading indicators remain strong. Manufacturing, Exports, and Investments have all grown substantially.
Inflation is not an issue.
Projections for solid GDP and employment growth.
Real GDP growth between 3-4%/yr., unemployment declines between 1.5-2%/yr.
Recoveries take time (especially after a financial crisis).
If history is a guide, the growth during the recovery will be greater than the decline during the Recession.

23. LEST WE FORGET THE TREND! U.S. Per Capita Income past 100 years